Trade Possibilities

As the "first half" of the season comes to a close, a lot of people start trying to predict a lot of things for teams going into the post-All-Star break portion of the year. Although games don't count any more than they did before, they now seem a lot more important as races are coming down to the wire. Also, teams like the Pirates and Nationals will have a chance to show if they are actually winning teams or not. (Yeah, that's right, the Pirates and Nationals are both at or above .500)

One thing that starts to happen that changes the future of different teams is trades. The Phillies will surely be looking to add a bat to the lineup or an arm to the bullpen as the July 31st trade deadline approaches. Our immediate future looks to have a big change or 2 in it. But, let's be honest, the Phillies don't need to be overly worried about the immediate future in terms of making the playoffs. So, I want to take a look at some possible trades as well as looking at what the distant future could look like for a team filled with 30+ year-old talent. Today, I'm going to go with the trade options. Tomorrow or Wednesday I'll look into the more distant future.

So first, some trading options:

I am going to start by talking about a relief pitcher because that's MUCH less exciting to me than what I will be writing about below this. Oh my gosh how exciting that is. So relief pitchers (yawn). The only person I've really heard anything about is Heath Bell of the Padres. Yes, the Padres will be willing to give some people up because they suck. And Heath Bell has been a very nice closer for them this season. He has a 2.43 ERA with 26 saves in 27 opportunities (2nd most in baseball). He would give us a proven closer (47 saves, 1.93 ERA last year; 42, 2.71 in 2009) going into a postseason where it seems like our only weakness might be a proven closer. Brad Lidge will be coming back sooner than we are all comfortable with, and we can never be too sure about how well he will contribute late in games. Madson has been great for us this year, but do we know at this point in his career that he can really be a closer? Bastardo is the best reliever in the major leagues right now (seriously), but I don't want to count on someone so inexperienced in such a big role come playoff time. So Bell would be a great addition. I have no idea what we would have to give up for him because I haven't heard anything about what the Padres are looking for. I would assume that it's prospects though, and ones that I have managed to stay pretty unattached to this season. Other than him, I don't know how much extra help we would need. We have Bastardo, Stutes, Madson, Contreras, Lidge, and Perez. Add Kendrick to that and the possible addition of Bell, and I'd be more than happy with our playoff bullpen. We would probably actually have to leave one of those guys behind, so we could see how the 2nd half of the year goes and decide from there. I think, though, that bullpen is our secondary concern right now.

It is no secret that the Phillies want a right-handed bat with some power to head into the late months of the season and to help us out in the playoffs. While I've written several times that John Mayberry could be a fine solution for this (yes, mentioned that in at least 8 different posts this year, this 9th one making it about 1 out of every 5 posts. Yikes, that must get annoying for you guys), and my man Ricky Botallico even suggested the same thing a few nights ago on Phillies Pre-Game Live, it is hard to tell at this point whether or not Mayberry will be even considered as our answer to this problem. Although in the last 4 games in which he started each one, he went 6 for 18 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 home runs, and 7 RBI. While everyone loves Domonic Brown (and rightfully so), Mayberry has actually been better this year. Say whaaattt?!?! Yes, that's right. Johnny has played in 7 more games this season but has 24 less at bats than Dom. That means he's constantly being used as a pinch hitter, a role that is very tough for hitters to handle. Sit around for 2 1/2 hours, then go up and get a hit. Still, Mayberry has as many home runs (5) more RBI (19 to 16) and a higher OPS (.765 to .735). While his numbers aren't drastically higher, doesn't it seem like there is a drastic difference in the confidence we have put in each of them? They seem to me to be basically the same player, only with Brown having a higher ceiling (if he has one). I understand the projections of Dom as a big-time player, but why are we ignoring someone playing just as well as him? (Oh boy, here I go again. Someone please stop my constant John Mayberry campaign?)

Since we're unsure of how much we can count on Mayberry, it seems likely that we'll be in the market for a right-handed bat. One name I have heard a few times is Michael Cuddyer of the Twins. He's played well this year, batting .298 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI for a Twins team that has struggled mightily. He would definitely look nice in some red pinstripes.

More exciting to me, though, is a guy who leads his current team in just about every major offensive category. And he plays for a team that we love to trade with. I'm talking about Hunter Pence, the rightfielder for the Astros. In my perfect world, we trade a pitching prospect or 2 (and hopefully throw in Raul) and get Pence in return. His .323 average, 11 home runs, 60 RBI, and .860 OPS would be a very nice 5-hitter for us, protecting Ryan Howard and playing rightfield. We can then move Brown to left and completely stop playing Ibanez. He's bound to get arthritis any day now anyway. So, I'm guessing, this is what a lineup could look like for us come August 1st if we do trade for him. Brace yourself, this is really really exciting.

SS Rollins
3B Polanco
2B Utley
1B Howard
RF Pence
CF Victorino
LF Brown
C Ruiz
P Fill-in-the-blank-because-we-have-the-best-rotation-in-history

Look at that! Is that not unbelievable to you?! Can you even comprehend that?! I'm not suggesting that one player will give me unimaginable confidence in our offense suddenly, but, WOW, one player certainly gives me unimaginable confidence in our offense suddenly! A big problem we've had this year has been health. There have been something like 7 or 8 games with our projected opening day lineup. Another big problem has been Raul Stinkin' Ibanez. I was told that I needed to give him credit in this post because of his performance against the Braves. Walk-off homerun, sweet deal dude. Six RBI, that's awesome. Credit over. Now get out of my lineup. Make way for Hunter Pence.

So you may be thinking a lot of things right now about that possibility. And I don't want to get anyone's hopes up (yes I do, the blog is freakin' called High Hopes who are we kidding?). What is he going to cost us? Do we really want to give up a lot for someone we'll have for just a few months?

Well, first of all, we would have Pence for another year after this one (!!!). Secondly, the price might be high, but not so high as to have me fearing what we would have to give up. As some of you may know, I am obsessed with Phillies minor league players. I don't, however, I have a problem giving up some of our current guys. I made the mistake of doing some research the other day and starting to fall in love with a few of them. I can't just love 'em and leave 'em. I never could. But the deal that I've seen has us giving up Jarred Cosart, our top minor league pitching prospect. The guy projects as a number 2, possible number 1 pitcher in the big leagues. He's just 21 years old and down in Clearwater right now, so who knows how he could turn out. I would be ecstatic, though, if we could get away with a straight up trade, Pence for Cosart. The Astros want to build a solid rotation, and we aren't really lacking in that area right now. Perhaps we'd have to throw in another pitcher like Trevor May or Julio Rodriguez, and I'd be OK with that, too. Pence would be a HUGE addition for us, and our pitchers are pretty well set for a few years now. But more on that in the next post...