Hitting Our Stride

As the trade deadline approaches, teams are looking for ways to fill all kinds of needs that will, ideally, win them a World Series this season. The problem with that is, there's really no set formula for building a championship team. And there's definitely no telling how much a deadline deal will actually matter. Just look at the past 5 World Series:

2010: Giants 4 Rangers 1
A team completely built around pitching ends up winning games 1 and 2 by scoring 11 and 9 runs. Game 3, more of a pitchers' duel, the Giants lost 4-2. They really didn't have much to rely on offensively going in other than the 23-year-old rookie Buster Posey, who had no experience with this type of situation. He ended up batting just .250 in the World Series. The guys who did shine for them? Well, as we remember all too well, Cody Ross got them there, and journeyman shortstop Edgar Renteria batted .412 for them in the Series with 2 home runs, despite hitting just 1 and batting under .250 in his previous 61 postseason games. They made no real noise at the deadline and ended up winning it all because the right guys got hot at the right time.

2009: Yankees 4 Phillies 2
Once again, a year we remember all too well for what it was. The Yankees were a team built mostly on money it would seem. They had Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira, new acquisitions to the team, lead them through the regular season. Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte made up a 3-man rotation for them in the playoffs. They had 7 guys with 20+ home runs and 80+ RBI. A great lineup, great rotation, and great closer got them where they needed to be and won the World Series for them. Their deadline deal? Jerry Hairston. He went 1 for 6 in the World Series. It was Hideki Matsui, one of their "worst" offensive players (.274, 28 HR, 90 RBI not that impressive on this team), who won MVP for them. No one would have predicted that.

2008: Phillies 4 Rays 1
Our team was also built completely on its offense. Along with that, though, we had the best back-end of the bullpen in the majors. If we got to the 8th inning and were winning, the game was all but over. If we got to the 9th, it was definitely over. But it was our ace, Cole Hamels, that won MVP of the series. Joe Blanton, an acquisition that was criticized, ended up being solid for us through the playoffs and actually hitting a home run in Game 4 of the World Series while picking up the win.

2007: Red Sox 4 Rockies 0
Another team with great starting pitching, a great closer, and a high-powered offense. They had 3 regulars hitting .317 or better and 3 others at .270 or better. Their big midseason acquisition was former great closer and total juicer Eric Gagne. He had the highest ERA on their team in the regular season and pitched 1 shutout inning in the World Series. Mike Lowell, who had a fantastic season, won MVP for them.

2006: Cardinals 4 Tigers 1
This Cardinals team didn't have great starting pitching, didn't have a great bullpen, and didn't have a very powerful offense. Jorge Sosa, one of their deadline deals, did not pitch for them in the World Series. Ronnie Belliard, the other one, went 0 for 12. It was stupid little David Eckstein, Christopher Wheeler's favorite player, who batted .364 and took home MVP. Their team wasn't anything all that special, they didn't make any difference-making deals, but they just came together at the right time and won the World Series.

The only trend that we might see here is that the AL is really good at putting together more complete teams, but they seem to be average at winning the World Series. National League teams that some might consider inferior have won 3 of the last 5 Fall Classics, and their acquisitions throughout the season don't seem to make all that much of a difference on that road. So what matters? The best answer is just getting hot at the right time.

This is something that the Phillies are doing right now...getting hot. Is it the right time? Not exactly. But take a look at this scenario and tell me how you think we'd be doing in a month where these things are true:

Polanco is hurt
Victorino is hurt
Howard is hitting .210 with just 1 home run
Utley is hitting .250
Halladay's most recent start lasted just 4 innings
Lee is 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA
Hamels has a 4.43 ERA

This is our July. And we are 10-5, winning every series 2 games to 1. And we're doing this without the "complete team" that every team out there is trying to trade for. We don't have a lights-out closer (at least not to any of our knowledge). We don't have a powerful right-handed bat that we feel like we can count on. We can't seem to stay healthy all at once. But we are definitely proving right now that none of that matters. In the same way that teams like the Giants in 2010, us in 2008, and the Cardinals in 2006 proved that it didn't matter.

As I said, we're 10-5 in July and have not lost a series. Here's a look at how some of our players have fared in that time:

Jimmy is batting .382, including 9 multi-hit games out of the 15 he's played. He also has scored 14 runs and has 11 RBI in 68 at bats. It took him 49 at bats to get 1 RBI to start the season, and that's when he was batting 3rd.

Michael Martinez is batting .297 and has become our everyday 3rd baseman in Polanco's absence (close enough to my prediction). He's got 11 RBI in just 12 games, and hit his first career home run.

John Mayberry is doing his best to prove that he deserves to stay in the big leagues by driving in 12 runs in just 9 starts during Victorino's absence.

Domonic Brown is trying to secure his starting spot even with the possible addition of an outfielder. He's hitting .320 with a .433 OBP this month and 11 runs scored in 14 games.

Ibanez has cooled off recently, mostly because he sucks, but he still has a .283 average with 14 RBI in 14 games.

Vance Worley has gone 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA in 3 starts this month. He also became the 2nd Phillies pitcher since 1920 to have 5 straight starts of 5+ innings and 1 ER or less, joining Steve Carlton.

Antonio Bastardo has ignored our need for a closer by going 4 for 4 in save opportunities this month with a 1.23 ERA (bringing his season ERA up to 0.99. Gross)

And the people who aren't mentioned here? Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels. These are our guys. These are the guys we need to rely on. If we are looking at what to trade for, we know we are fine with at least those guys and their positions.

Except they've struggled this month with batting averages in the low .200's and ERA's in the high 3.00's and mid 4.00's. So even without these guys doing what they normally do, we have managed to hold down our spot as the best team in baseball. We're scoring 5.7 runs per game in July, up from the 4.0 we were scoring up until the end of June.

Although I talked about different trade possibilities, and I'd love to see some different things happen, I kind of wonder how much of a difference it would even make. It seems that, for us, the most important part is figuring out how to hit our stride at the right time. We're 10-5 right now this month. You only need to go 11-8 in October to win the World Series. If only it were October now.