Another installment of the guest blog posts. This one comes from my favorite brother-in-law Jeremiah. Jeremiah and Brianna live in Virginia, so most of the "baseball" they get to see is the Nationals and Orioles. Not the best options exactly, but Jeremiah is kind enough to focus most of that baseball-watching attention on the Nationals in order to get a good scouting report for when our beloved Phillies play them. So here is what he has to say about the upcoming series with the Nationals, our current chances in the NL East, and a certain German airship disaster:
We are 2.5 games back. We are on an 8-game winning streak. We are playing the Nationals, and the Braves are playing the Reds. We will face the following three pitchers in the next three games: Craig Stammen, Ross Detwiler, and probably Miguel Batista. There has never been a better opportunity to take the lead in our division. But this is 2010, and our team has rarely done what they are expected to do. I think, however, this weekend will be one of the biggest weekends for the Phillies this season.
Game 1: Oswalt v. Stammen
Enter: Roy Oswalt. Leads the league in losses (12), but has a 3.42 era and 120 strikeouts. Because he played for the Astros. Oswalt will do well tonight, especially because he is facing Craig freakin’ Stammen. In two starts against the Phils, Stammen has a 0-0 record with an era of 15.63. Yeesh. On the other hand, Stammen is tied for the league leading 5 potential wins blown by the bullpen (tied with our very own Kyle Kendrick), so in his defense, he could have a record of 7-4 instead of 2-4. But the Nationals also just traded Matt Capps. So Stammen probably won’t win for the rest of the year.
Game 2: Blanton v. Detweiler
If there is a game we should worry about, it would be this one simply because Blanton is pitching and he has been a little less than consistent for us this season. His last start was solid aside from only striking out 2, but in his career against the Nats he is 2-3 with an era around 6. On the other hand, Dettweiler has an era around the same number and is 0-2 against us. It would really help if they traded Adam Dunn soon, but even so we should win this game.
Game 3: Hamels v. somebody
The Nats sent Hindenburg to the DL because of a “sore shoulder”, so lucky enough for us, we get to face whoever they can muster. They currently have 5 pitchers on the DL, and though Jason Marquis is close to a return, most likely we will face someone like Miguel Batista who recently made a start against the Braves. He was pretty phenomenal against them (5.0 innings, 6 K’s and no earned runs), but with the way Hamels is pitching I think we have to have the upper hand.
Something else to think about – the Nats just won a series. So with the way baseball usually progresses – especially for a team like Washington – getting this sweep seems like much more of a possibility. We don’t face Livan or Scott Olsen, so we are set up nicely. Capps is gone – Dunn could leave too – and so it looks really good for us.
Hilarious facts:
1. Strasburg leads the Nationals in strikeouts. He has 75. Oh yeah, and he has started in less that half the games of any other starter.
2. Tyler Clippard leads the team in wins. He has 8. Oh yeah, and he isn’t a starter.
3. Stratosphereburg pitched 55.1 minor league innings. Halladay, Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Mitch Williams, and pretty much every other pitcher ever pitched at least 200-250. At least.
4. John Lannan was the Nationals ace at the beginning of the season. He is currently in the minors. But not because he is hurt.
5. I refuse to spell Debtwiler correctly. Because I respect him that little.
6. I know Strasburg is good. But if he does fail, you heard him referenced as Hindenburg here first.
7. The White Sox play by play announcer. He gone.
Looking at who the Braves are facing:
Medlen (6-2) v. Cueto (10-2)
Jair Jrjrjrjrjrjr (3-3) v. Arroyo (10-6)
Hanson (8-7) v. Volquez (1-1)
I think those are good match-ups, especially with the way the Reds are playing and the way they are and the current semi-struggles the Braves are having. Let’s go Phils.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Oswalt Deal
Before he pitches for us at all, how do I feel about this deal?
Well, not good really. We lose JA Happ, last season's runner up for Rookie of the Year. We don't know what Happ was going to do for us this season seeing as he only made 3 starts, but he was finally healthy and pitching again. So we traded a potentially good pitcher for a better pitcher that seems like more of a sure thing. But we get Oswalt for the next year and a half, possibly 2 and a half years. Happ we could have kept for who knows how long.
The other side of this is that our relationship with Happ was pretty much damaged already anyway. We have been talking about trading him for 2 years now any time a trade comes up. If I were him, I would not have felt too comfortable in Philly. It really seemed like a matter of time before he was gone, so it's good to get some value in return. Also, the consensus seems to be that the Phillies need to win right now. All of our best players are around the age of 30. In baseball, 30 is not really considered old, and many of these guys we could argue are in their primes right now. So getting a player that will help us win right now and losing a player that might help us win 5 years from now is probably a good thing. Also, the prospects we lose are not anything too critical to the system. Right now it's Anthony Gose and some random shortstop. We don't need a shortstop, and Gose is pretty whatever to me. He's one of the fastest guys in the system, but right now he doesn't look like a good leadoff guy at all with how much he strikes out. We can always use outfielders, but I don't feel like he was necessary to keep.
I think my main problem in this trade is acting like Roy Oswalt is one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. We are giving up a "proven" pitcher in JA Happ as well as one of our top prospects in Anthony Gose. This is the kind of stuff we weren't really willing to give up a year ago for Roy Halladay. Roy Oswalt is definitely good, but he's not that good. I just worry that we gave up a ton for someone who will be good but not great. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But either way, I think not winning the World Series makes this a horrible trade.
Well, not good really. We lose JA Happ, last season's runner up for Rookie of the Year. We don't know what Happ was going to do for us this season seeing as he only made 3 starts, but he was finally healthy and pitching again. So we traded a potentially good pitcher for a better pitcher that seems like more of a sure thing. But we get Oswalt for the next year and a half, possibly 2 and a half years. Happ we could have kept for who knows how long.
The other side of this is that our relationship with Happ was pretty much damaged already anyway. We have been talking about trading him for 2 years now any time a trade comes up. If I were him, I would not have felt too comfortable in Philly. It really seemed like a matter of time before he was gone, so it's good to get some value in return. Also, the consensus seems to be that the Phillies need to win right now. All of our best players are around the age of 30. In baseball, 30 is not really considered old, and many of these guys we could argue are in their primes right now. So getting a player that will help us win right now and losing a player that might help us win 5 years from now is probably a good thing. Also, the prospects we lose are not anything too critical to the system. Right now it's Anthony Gose and some random shortstop. We don't need a shortstop, and Gose is pretty whatever to me. He's one of the fastest guys in the system, but right now he doesn't look like a good leadoff guy at all with how much he strikes out. We can always use outfielders, but I don't feel like he was necessary to keep.
I think my main problem in this trade is acting like Roy Oswalt is one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. We are giving up a "proven" pitcher in JA Happ as well as one of our top prospects in Anthony Gose. This is the kind of stuff we weren't really willing to give up a year ago for Roy Halladay. Roy Oswalt is definitely good, but he's not that good. I just worry that we gave up a ton for someone who will be good but not great. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But either way, I think not winning the World Series makes this a horrible trade.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Bad
The Phillies are almost as bad at baseball as I am at updating right now.
I read that the Phillies had scored 3 runs or less in 44 of their first 92 games this season. I think I said something at the beginning of this season along the lines of it being impossible for the Phillies to score less than 4 runs in any given game. Yet, somehow, we have managed to do it in almost half of our games.
It's upsetting, but I wonder what the heck we can do about it. The possibility of getting rid of Jayson Werth is still out there and borderline likely at this point, but who can we really add to take his place and then add something extra to that? The most recent thing I have heard involves Roy Oswalt coming to the Phils. Although I would love that, it does not solve the problem of scoring runs. Pitching doesn't really feel like the problem right now.
As Kelsey said in her comment on the last post, Tejada is a possibility as well. That would be a nice replacement for Utley for the time being (move Polanco to second, Tejada plays third). He wouldnt have much of a place on the team once Chase is back, but I think right now we need to worry about actually winning some games. The more I think about it (as I'm typing this without thinking it through first), the more I really like Tejada on our team. But how old is he? Does he even know?
I read that the Phillies had scored 3 runs or less in 44 of their first 92 games this season. I think I said something at the beginning of this season along the lines of it being impossible for the Phillies to score less than 4 runs in any given game. Yet, somehow, we have managed to do it in almost half of our games.
It's upsetting, but I wonder what the heck we can do about it. The possibility of getting rid of Jayson Werth is still out there and borderline likely at this point, but who can we really add to take his place and then add something extra to that? The most recent thing I have heard involves Roy Oswalt coming to the Phils. Although I would love that, it does not solve the problem of scoring runs. Pitching doesn't really feel like the problem right now.
As Kelsey said in her comment on the last post, Tejada is a possibility as well. That would be a nice replacement for Utley for the time being (move Polanco to second, Tejada plays third). He wouldnt have much of a place on the team once Chase is back, but I think right now we need to worry about actually winning some games. The more I think about it (as I'm typing this without thinking it through first), the more I really like Tejada on our team. But how old is he? Does he even know?
Friday, July 9, 2010
Trades?
The latest reports are showing that Cliff Lee is going to be sent to the Yankees. That sucks for everyone, but before anyone complains about us getting rid of Cliff Lee, we need to remember that we got Roy Halladay. Halladay has been fantastic for us. Who knows if he is better than what Lee would have been, but we do know that he has been great.
So why does this trade matter to the Phils? Well, the Yankees will have an extra starting pitcher if they get Cliff Lee. An extra starting pitcher in the form of the struggling Javier Vazquez. Although he has not been very good this season, he pitched extremely well in the NL East last season for the Braves. Although I think we need more help hitting right now than we do pitching, the rumors are that we will trade Jayson Werth for Vazquez. Who knows how much truth there is to that rumor, but it's out there.
I think if we do this, we will undoubtedly need to get a right-handed bat somewhere. I don't know if that would occur in that trade, but it has to happen somehow. Losing Jayson Werth gets rid of our only powerful right-handed hitter. I think the top prospect within our system to replace Werth would be Domonic Brown right now, but he is left-handed. And for whatever reason, he is still only playing in AA Reading. Obviously people get called up from AA all the time, but it seems odd that they haven't made the jump to AAA with him yet.
I don't know what kind of right-handed bats/outfielders are available this year to be traded. I have a feeling somebody like Carlos Lee of the Astros would be available. They're bad, he's old, but he still has some production left in him (in theory). Although he wouldn't be my first choice by any stretch of the imagination, that's just what I came up with in a quick glance around the league.
Of course, we could always call someone up from AAA Pittsburgh. I'm thinking Andrew McCutchen would be a nice addition.
So why does this trade matter to the Phils? Well, the Yankees will have an extra starting pitcher if they get Cliff Lee. An extra starting pitcher in the form of the struggling Javier Vazquez. Although he has not been very good this season, he pitched extremely well in the NL East last season for the Braves. Although I think we need more help hitting right now than we do pitching, the rumors are that we will trade Jayson Werth for Vazquez. Who knows how much truth there is to that rumor, but it's out there.
I think if we do this, we will undoubtedly need to get a right-handed bat somewhere. I don't know if that would occur in that trade, but it has to happen somehow. Losing Jayson Werth gets rid of our only powerful right-handed hitter. I think the top prospect within our system to replace Werth would be Domonic Brown right now, but he is left-handed. And for whatever reason, he is still only playing in AA Reading. Obviously people get called up from AA all the time, but it seems odd that they haven't made the jump to AAA with him yet.
I don't know what kind of right-handed bats/outfielders are available this year to be traded. I have a feeling somebody like Carlos Lee of the Astros would be available. They're bad, he's old, but he still has some production left in him (in theory). Although he wouldn't be my first choice by any stretch of the imagination, that's just what I came up with in a quick glance around the league.
Of course, we could always call someone up from AAA Pittsburgh. I'm thinking Andrew McCutchen would be a nice addition.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Live Blog (From Thursday)
My good friend Ben Follett, the only true Pirates fan in the world, was gracious enough to write another post for this blog. You may recall that he wrote one reflecting upon the first series with the Pirates. He was lucky enough to go to a few games during this series in Pittsburgh. Thursday night, he decided to be the man and live blog during the game. Unfortunately, said "live blog" could not actually show up here live. So here it is now. Although it may be painful to relive this game, it's definitely awesome to see the game through his perspective as it was unfolding. So check it out -
Pirates – Phillies Live Blog (July 1, 2010)
6:24 pm - Sitting in the suite level at PNC Park should be my everyday life. 40 mins until first pitch and currently the phillies fans out number buccos fans 4 to 1
6:43 pm - You know how you make errors in baseball or softball when the ball hit a rock, divet or dead animal because the field sucks? Imagine playing on any major league field, no bad hops...major leaguers should never make an error.
7:05 pm - First pitch, 705 pm, 76 degrees and I love baseball...let's go bucs!
7:15 pm - I hate the shift, if Ryan Howard was smart he would ninth for a base hit down the 3rd base line 10 times in a row until teams stopped the shift and then he would hit for a higher average and I wouldn't have to yell about the shift every day.
7:21 pm - I think good Cole Hamels is in the building tonight, he's touching 95…whoa.
7:30 pm - Daniel McCutchen just struck out the side, lowering his ERA to 10.31...all I can say is Cole Hamels better look out.
7:40 pm - A question for all the readers, what would your walk up song be?
7:50 pm - 1-0 buccos on a bobby crosby single driving in lastings milledge.
7:54 pm - Wilson valdez hits a ball over the north side notch, who the hell is Wilson valdez, 1-1.
8:04 pm - Welcome to the burgh Pedro as he doubles to the notch scoring tabata from first, 2-1 bucs.
8:21 pm - Today is t-shirt Thursdays at the ballpark, I love free t-shirts...scratch that I love free everything, especially the free food and beer I am enjoying in the box tonight.
8:25 pm - Tabata brings in laroche after a perfect sac bunt, 3-1 pirates.
8:35 pm - The pirates throw the ball around a little and let the phillies have a run, 3-2.
8:47 pm - Ryan Howard grounds out to the second baseman in shallow right field, I love the shift.
9:02 pm - I don't like Heineken, but it is the only free beer left and its better than paying for beer I like. Oh by the way, 3-2 bucs, bottom of the 6th.
9:14 pm - I have been making bets with a friend the entire game and through 13 bets, he is up a quarter. As for the baseball, 3-2 bucs after the top if the 7th.
9:35 pm - I wish I could throw upper 90's, that would be awesome. 3-2 bucs.
9:50 pm - Top of the 9th, 3-2 bucs and here comes octavio dotel.
9:55 pm - 2 outs, bottom of the ninth...here we go.
9:59 pm - Raise the jolly roger, octavio strikes out victorino and the ballgame is over baby, 3-2 buccos and there was no doubt about it...thanks for playing Phillies, see ya tomorrow.
10:12 pm – Postgame…I love baseball and live blogging was an experience made all the better by the Pirates winning. I hope everyone enjoyed the comments and Let’s Go Bucs!
Pirates – Phillies Live Blog (July 1, 2010)
6:24 pm - Sitting in the suite level at PNC Park should be my everyday life. 40 mins until first pitch and currently the phillies fans out number buccos fans 4 to 1
6:43 pm - You know how you make errors in baseball or softball when the ball hit a rock, divet or dead animal because the field sucks? Imagine playing on any major league field, no bad hops...major leaguers should never make an error.
7:05 pm - First pitch, 705 pm, 76 degrees and I love baseball...let's go bucs!
7:15 pm - I hate the shift, if Ryan Howard was smart he would ninth for a base hit down the 3rd base line 10 times in a row until teams stopped the shift and then he would hit for a higher average and I wouldn't have to yell about the shift every day.
7:21 pm - I think good Cole Hamels is in the building tonight, he's touching 95…whoa.
7:30 pm - Daniel McCutchen just struck out the side, lowering his ERA to 10.31...all I can say is Cole Hamels better look out.
7:40 pm - A question for all the readers, what would your walk up song be?
7:50 pm - 1-0 buccos on a bobby crosby single driving in lastings milledge.
7:54 pm - Wilson valdez hits a ball over the north side notch, who the hell is Wilson valdez, 1-1.
8:04 pm - Welcome to the burgh Pedro as he doubles to the notch scoring tabata from first, 2-1 bucs.
8:21 pm - Today is t-shirt Thursdays at the ballpark, I love free t-shirts...scratch that I love free everything, especially the free food and beer I am enjoying in the box tonight.
8:25 pm - Tabata brings in laroche after a perfect sac bunt, 3-1 pirates.
8:35 pm - The pirates throw the ball around a little and let the phillies have a run, 3-2.
8:47 pm - Ryan Howard grounds out to the second baseman in shallow right field, I love the shift.
9:02 pm - I don't like Heineken, but it is the only free beer left and its better than paying for beer I like. Oh by the way, 3-2 bucs, bottom of the 6th.
9:14 pm - I have been making bets with a friend the entire game and through 13 bets, he is up a quarter. As for the baseball, 3-2 bucs after the top if the 7th.
9:35 pm - I wish I could throw upper 90's, that would be awesome. 3-2 bucs.
9:50 pm - Top of the 9th, 3-2 bucs and here comes octavio dotel.
9:55 pm - 2 outs, bottom of the ninth...here we go.
9:59 pm - Raise the jolly roger, octavio strikes out victorino and the ballgame is over baby, 3-2 buccos and there was no doubt about it...thanks for playing Phillies, see ya tomorrow.
10:12 pm – Postgame…I love baseball and live blogging was an experience made all the better by the Pirates winning. I hope everyone enjoyed the comments and Let’s Go Bucs!
Saturday, July 3, 2010
The Pirates?
Every once in awhile I like to justify to myself why I keep my own Phillies statistics by actually using them to talk about something. Today is one of those glorious days.
In 4 games against the Pirates this season, Phillies starters have pitched 30 innings. They have a 2.40 ERA and a .211 batting average against.
The Phillies' bullpen has pitched 4 perfect innings.
Ryan Howard is batting .500 against the Pirates with 6 RBI.
We have scored 15 runs in those 4 games. The Pirates have scored 9.
All of these numbers add up to a record of 1-3. How does that make any sense at all?
The simple explanation would be: it doesn't. As the guest blogger from the last series against them pointed out, the Pirates are simply better in close games. I must admit, I haven't followed the Pirates all that closely since that last series, but I do know that the Phillies certainly haven't gotten much better in general since then, much less in close games.
Close or not close, the Phillies need to score some runs in order to win games. That now gives us 3 runs in 3 losses to the Pirates. Things aren't looking up with tomorrow's game against Paul Maholm, who has historically dominated us (0.78 ERA in his last 3 starts against us).
This was supposed to be our "easy" series leading up to the All-Star Break. Utley being out until September and 29 of our other 24 regular players being on the DL surely doesn't help our 5-game deficit in the NL East. Since the start of the 2008 season, I'm not sure that I've ever been worried about the Phillies chances, whether it be in a game, a series, or the season. I'm not saying I'm worried now, but I totally am.
And with the help we need right now, I already miss Domonic Brown.
In 4 games against the Pirates this season, Phillies starters have pitched 30 innings. They have a 2.40 ERA and a .211 batting average against.
The Phillies' bullpen has pitched 4 perfect innings.
Ryan Howard is batting .500 against the Pirates with 6 RBI.
We have scored 15 runs in those 4 games. The Pirates have scored 9.
All of these numbers add up to a record of 1-3. How does that make any sense at all?
The simple explanation would be: it doesn't. As the guest blogger from the last series against them pointed out, the Pirates are simply better in close games. I must admit, I haven't followed the Pirates all that closely since that last series, but I do know that the Phillies certainly haven't gotten much better in general since then, much less in close games.
Close or not close, the Phillies need to score some runs in order to win games. That now gives us 3 runs in 3 losses to the Pirates. Things aren't looking up with tomorrow's game against Paul Maholm, who has historically dominated us (0.78 ERA in his last 3 starts against us).
This was supposed to be our "easy" series leading up to the All-Star Break. Utley being out until September and 29 of our other 24 regular players being on the DL surely doesn't help our 5-game deficit in the NL East. Since the start of the 2008 season, I'm not sure that I've ever been worried about the Phillies chances, whether it be in a game, a series, or the season. I'm not saying I'm worried now, but I totally am.
And with the help we need right now, I already miss Domonic Brown.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)