Braves Preview

If you've been paying any attention to the Phillies this season, you probably know that we have the best record in baseball. If not that, you at least know that we are in first in the NL East. We have had a pretty good lead throughout the entire season, and no team has really been much of a threat to us thus far. Along with that, our pitchers have been absolutely dominant. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee have combined for 30 of our 55 wins and are towards the top of the National League in nearly every statistical category for pitchers.

If you haven't been paying attention to the rest of baseball, though, you may not know how good the Braves have been. They currently sit in 2nd in the NL East, just 2.5 games back, and have the 2nd most wins of any team in baseball. As dominant as our pitchers are? Their's are right up there as well. We currently have a 3.05 ERA as a staff, 2nd only to the Braves' 3.02. Jrrr Jrrrjrrrjrrrrs currently is the only pitcher in the NL with more wins than Halladay. Halladay and Hamels have the 2nd and 3rd lowest ERAs in the NL. The lowest? Jrrr Jrrrjrrrjrrrrs. And Tommy Hanson is 4th. Not to mention, Craig Kimbrel, their closer, leads all of baseball with 27 saves.

The Braves are coming into this series off of a 4-game sweep of a decent Rockies team, and they have won 9 of their last 10. This is not a series that we should look past, and I don't in any way think that we will.

All of this sounds a little intimidating, but it's exactly this type of situation that has me so excited about our team this year. In possibly the biggest series of the season thus far, our starting pitchers are lined up perfectly: Halladay, Lee, Hamels. No matter who is being thrown at us in a series like that, it would be impossible to say we are at a disadvantage.

We really lucked out with this one, seeing as we will not be facing Jrrrjrrrjrrrrs, who may very well get the start in Tuesday's All-Star Game. The unlucky part, though, is that we put Shane Victorino on the DL, meaning our offense could very well struggle (shocking) in this weekend's series. Of our "regular" starters (whoever they are this year), none of them are batting above .200 against the Braves this season other than Victorino and Ruiz. Ruiz has a .467 average but in just 15 at bats. Shane is at .441 with a 1.147 OPS in 34 at bats. Our next best regular? Jimmy is hitting .189 against Atlanta in our 9 games against them this season. Hopefully having Chase in the lineup will help us out here. These will be his first games against the Braves. Hopefully his presence will get the rest of the offense going and show the Braves pitchers something new this season.

At the conclusion of this series, our best-case scenario is we are 5.5 games up. The worst case is we will be a half game out in the East, but still up 2 games in the Wild Card. Not that we need to start thinking about any of that now. I don't even know why I'm mentioning the Wild Card. We are going to win the East, so we might as well start extending that lead now so other teams can know what they need to focus on.

Game 1: Brandon Beachy (3-1, 3.23 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.44 ERA)
I would say this is our best matchup of the weekend. Beachy has struggled against the Phils this year, pitching 8 innings and giving up 13 hits and 7 runs. We have a lot of guys who have done well against him, and our .350 batting average against him as a team tells me that, even in Shane's absence, we should be able to get to him. Even if we aren't at our best, we can count on Halladay to be at his. His only other start against the Braves this season was a complete game loss. Let's hope we can give him more support than that this game. And let's hope they get to play the game despite the rain in the forecast.
Prediction: Phillies 5 Braves 0
Keep an eye out for: Roy Halladay throwing a complete game shutout. This prediction is getting really old, and I feel exhausted typing it every time. He will get it. And it doesn't seem right for him to have none going into the All-Star break.

Game 2: Tommy Hanson (10-4, 2.52 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (9-6, 2.92 ERA)
I feel like this is the opposite of the last game, giving us our worst matchup of the weekend. Lee has been about as bad against the Braves as Beachy has been against us. In 10.1 innings, he's given up 19 hits and 9 runs, helping him to go 0-2 against them. If only he could have faced them in June. Unfortunately, June is over, and the Braves are back in Cliff's life. That doesn't seem all that positive to me, especially with Tommy Hanson taking the hill for the Braves. Hanson comes in having won 5 straight starts, and he has only given up 4 earned runs in a game once this season. He has shut down Howard, Ibanez, and Ruiz over his career, which is not a good sign for anything past our 3rd batter. Hopefully Cliff can get his bearings against the Braves, but I think that either way we may be in some trouble against this guy.
Prediction: Braves 4 Phillies 1
Keep an eye out for: our first hit not coming until the 6th inning.

Game 3: Derek Lowe (5-6, 4.21 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (10-4, 2.40 ERA)
This game should give us the best matchup of the weekend. Lowe and Hamels have both thrown some absolute gems against the Phillies and Braves, respectively, over the years, but they have also had a few games where each has struggled mightily. I'm honestly not too sure what I should use to back up this information, but I just have a feeling that Hamels will come out dealing and Lowe will have a tough time. Utley can definitely help that cause, seeing as he is a .400 career hitter against Lowe in 30 at bats. If Chipper Jones is still alive, Hamels will need to look out for him and his .313 career batting average against him. And Chipper will need to look out for a possible broken hip if he tries to field a ball.
Prediction: Phillies 6 Braves 2
Keep an eye out for: my parents saving some serious cash on gas next week. There is some deal where Landis' takes off 2 cents/gallon per strikeout the Phillies' starting pitcher has on Sunday. Hamels has 24 strikeouts in his 20 innings against the Braves.