Nationals Recap/Braves Preview

As some of you may know, I am nerdy enough to keep my own stats for the Phillies. It almost pains me to type that sentence because we all know that baseball has every statistic already kept somewhere, but I get some type of strange enjoyment out of it. In the more-than-slightly racist, Asian-imitating words of one of my former roommates and best friends Paul (affectionately known as Walnuts, Nuts, Gilligan, Gigli, Sack Lunch, Greta, and 35-40 other nicknames I can't think of), "I ruv numbers!" I truly do have a weird obsession with numbers, which is perhaps why I have such a weird obsession with the Phillies. Any question I ever have about the team can be answered quantitativaly.

So when you look at a series like the one against the Nationals, it is easy to see why we would sweep them. We have now won 5 out of 6 games against them. In those 6 games, our starters have accumulated an ERA of 2.15, and they've done it with plenty of work. The bullpen has pitched just 7 innings. That is truly unbelievable. Half of our games against them have been complete games by the starters including one shutout. If you haven't paid attention yet, make sure you watch in wonder the next time we play the Nationals. Our rotation is doing something truly special against them.

And, along with that, our worst offensive player this season has shined against Washington. Raul Ibanez has been absolutely horrendous this season. Except against the Nationals. He has 24 at-bats against the Nationals this year, about 23% of his season total (yes, get ready for some serious numbers here). In those 24 at-bats, he has 9 hits (41% of his season total), 6 RBI (40% of his total), 3 doubles (60%), and 2 home runs (67%). He is also batting .375 (as compared to .214 for the season) and has a 1.125 OPS (nearly double what it is for the season). Without his Nationals numbers, Ibanez is hitting .165 in 22 games. Gross. So, for all of you who think he is back, let's not get too excited. Although I would love for that to be true (but would I? Dominic Brown should be back relatively soon and John Mayberry should be playing), I feel like this is a trend we see against just the Nats. In 2009, he batted .426 against them with 8 home runs and 21 RBI. Last season, he batted .283 (not as good, but still solid) with 4 home runs (of 16 for the year). So can we please not be blinded by one good series against one bad team and sit his butt on the bench once we see him struggle over the next 3 days against the Braves?

SPEAKING of the Braves (can't you just hear Thomas McCarthy saying this horrible segue?), it should be a good series with them coming to town over the weekend. Here is a look at our matchups.

Game 1: Derek Lowe (2-3, 3.72 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.66 ERA)
This game will be a tough one. In my opinion, the key will be getting into the Braves' bullpen. In 3 games this season, they have a 6.83 ERA against us as compared to a 3.48 ERA from their starters. I don't know what to expect from Cliff Lee in looking at his last start against the Braves. It was only his second start, but he has been kind of up and down a little bit this season.
Prediction: Phillies 6 Braves 5
Keep an eye out for: All Phillies runs coming off of home runs. Lowe gets a few of his sinkers up in the strike zone and we jump on them.

Game 2: Jrrr Jrrrjrrjrrrrjrrrs (3-0, 1.52 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (1-2, 2.08 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick is starting for us over Roy Oswalt. Oswalt can be expected back in about a week hopefully. Kendrick is interesting because you never know what you're going to get out of him, but you can figure it out in the first inning of every game. So, my prediction will be completely based on that. If he can get a 1-2-3 first inning, he'll pitch 7 innings and give up 2 runs. If he doesn't have a 1-2-3 first, he'll give up 2 in the first and end up giving up 6 in 4 innings before getting pulled. The good news with that is, our bullpen has yet to give up a run against the Braves this season in 9.2 innings. So, since it's not fair to make someone predict what Kyle Kendrick will do...
Prediction 1: Phillies 3 Braves 2
Prediction 2: Braves 6 Phillies 3
Keep an eye out for: The Phils bats struggling against Jrrrjrrjrrrrjrrrs. He generally shuts us down pretty well but often lacks run support. So let's hope for Prediction 1.

Game 3: TBD vs. Cole Hamels (4-1, 2.66 ERA)
Cole loves pitching at home, and he hates pitching in the afternoon. The good thing about this is it's a Sunday Night Baseball game. Without knowing the Braves pitcher, I would say look out for Shane Victorino to shine in this game and the series in general. In the first series in Atlanta, Shane batted nearly .700 (yes, nearly seven hundred...thought I'd type it out so you didn't think it was a typo) with a double, home run, and two stolen bases. Cole also threw 7 shutout innings in his first appearance against the Braves this season. And can we please recall that our starters in this 3-game series include Cole Hamels AND Cliff Lee. And Roy Oswalt was supposed to start. This rotation still makes me so excited.
Prediction: Phillies 5 Braves 1
Keep an eye out for: Bobby Valentine rivaling the Phillies broadcast team in his annoying and stupid comments. The way I found out about bin Laden dying last week was via a text conversation with one of my oldest friends. The start of the conversation was this:
Me - Bobby valentine sucks
Matt - Bin laden is dead

And on that note, go Phils and go America!