What Now?

I'll probably give a real reaction to this series within a week or so. I'm not sure what to do from there. Do I try to update every couple of weeks or something in the offseason? Or do we just pick up at the beginning of next season?

Who knows, but I'm not figuring it out right now. That game was depressing.

NLDS Game 5 Preview

We need to win one game. Quick: What situation do you want?

Pitcher? Roy Halladay

Rest? Full

Location? Home

Lineup? Healthy

Opponent? Who cares

This is ours to win. As I always say when procrastinating, deadlines are there for a reason. If we needed to win in 4 games, things would be different. It's a 5-game series though. So let's just win Game 5 in the exact situation we want to be in.

Stop crying, focus, and see you in the NLCS.

Prediction: Phillies more Cardinals less

Keep an eye out for: celebrations in the Phillies' clubhouse

NLDS Game 4 Preview

The Phillies currently lead the best-of-5 series 2 games to 1.

Was this the plan?

Game 1: Roy Halladay gets rocked in the first inning. He then proceeds to retire 21 straight batters while our offense can't be stopped. Then, the bullpen does its best to blow an 8-run lead in the 9th, but we get out of it without any real worries and take home an 11-6 win

Game 2: We jump out to a 4-0 lead with Cliff Lee on the mound. Game over, right? Well, the Cardinals put together a series of horrible and fake hits to take a 5-4 lead. Cliff ends up with the loss after pitching just 6 innings and giving up all 5 runs on 12 hits. With that 5-4 loss, we lose home-field advantage and need to travel to St. Louis, one of the best baseball cities in America, to get at least one game back and avoid elimination.

Game 3: Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels flirts with 90 pitches while Jaime Garcia, someone who has historically killed us, throws just 51. We start to get to Garcia a little in the 6th, and Ben Francisco comes in in the 7th to hit a pinch-hit 3-run home run to give us a 3-0 lead. We find out that he apparently has a nickname that is unrelated to his resemblance to a camel, and it's actually a really sweet one. Benny Fresh is compared to Matt Stairs, and meanwhile the Cardinals are getting 4 hits out of Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot but are largely unable to turn them into anything. After 2 runs out of the bullpen and 5 outs out of Ryan Madson, the Phils get the win they need to take a 2-1 series lead.

Is this what we were looking for? Not at all. Last year's NLDS included a no-hitter by Halladay, a shutout by Hamels, and a 3-0 series sweep. This year was supposed to be much of the same. After all, our team is better than last year, aren't they?

Yes, our team is better than last year, and, if for no other reason, it's because we know how to win ugly. We lost last year because we just didn't win. That's an obvious statement, but it makes more sense when looked at in relation to this team. We just win. We are just winning games. Not the way we're supposed to win them. I know it's only 2 wins right now, but you can already see that this team NEEDS to win. As I said before the playoffs, it's a perfect mixture of talent, "This-Might-Be-Our-Last-Chance" desire, and "HolyCrapThisIsAwesomeLetsPlayReallyHardJustSoWeCanKeepPlaying" Hunter Pence attitude. That combination is not going to settle for anything less than a World Series. If someone needs to step up, they'll step up. Benny Fresh comes to mind.

That brings us to tonight's game. What have we gotten out of Oswalt this season? Not a whole lot. I expect a solid outing - maybe 6 or 7 innings giving up 3 runs or so. But what I expect means nothing thus far, so I'm gonna go with a completely dominant performance by him. This game is all ours. But I don't recommend expecting that...this team doesn't like for us to know what's coming.

Game 4 Preview:

Phillies pitcher: Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA)
Oswalt has had quite the crazy season. Coming in, he was our 3rd starter and had just come off of a dominating run with the Phils at the end of last season that extended into the playoffs. Injuries and natural disasters threw things off for him a little bit, but that doesn't mean he doesn't still have it in him to go out and shut down opposing batters.
Somehow, he has managed to make 3 starts against the Cardinals this season, more than any of our other starters. One was pretty average, 1 was pretty bad, and 1 was pretty awesome. That gives him a 1-1 record with a 3.21 ERA against the Cards this year.
His "pretty average" start came in mid-May, when he pitched well but lasted only 5 innings. Yadier Molina drove in St. Louis' only run off of him, and we were able to tie the game up before eventually losing to give Roy a no-decision.
His "pretty bad" start came at the end of June. He lasted just 2 innings and gave up 4 runs before leaving with back problems. This was the last start he had before spending over a month on the disabled list (still a hilarious term to me when I actually think about it...disabled list. HA!). It's tough to hold that against him because he was clearly not healthy and ready to go for that game. He gave up a home run to Jon Jay in the first inning, and a series of singles allowed the Cardinals to score a few more in the 2nd. Jay is actually one of the worst hitters against Oswalt with just a .250 batting average, but he does have that home run. The rest of the Cardinals roster is kind of scary to look at. They hit a collective .296 against him with plenty of at bats, mostly because he spent so much time in the NL Central with Houston. Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot, last night's stars for the Cardinals, both bat over .300 against him in a combined 118 at bats. Pujols has 5 home runs to add to that. Rafael Furcal is a .350 hitter in 20 at bats, and Yadier Molina has a .333 average against Oswalt in 24 at bats.
As I kind of said, there aren't too many hitters who struggle all that much against Roy Oswalt historically. Allen Craig bats .200, Jay .250, and Skip Schumaker hits just .261 (which isn't even that bad). So what did he do in his "pretty good" start against them to get the win this season? Well, he pitched 7 shutout innings and gave up only 5 hits. He held Pujols hitless and struck out 7 while walking no one, so it is clear that he is capable of having his way with this lineup.
In the postseason, Oswalt is 5-1 in his career with a 3.39 ERA. It's a pretty average ERA, but the 5-1 record suggests that he may be just the pitcher the Phillies are in need of right now. He wins, and that's it. He's allowed 90 base runners in 66.1 postseason innings, but he just gets wins. That's all we need right now - a win. If Oswalt is the guy to get it for us, then he's the guy to get it for us. He may pitch a shutout. He also might pitch 4 innings and give up 5 runs. Either way, someone is going to step up and get the win tonight, whether it be Oswalt, Benny Fresh, or even Raoops Suckhole (but really...it won't be him).

Cardinals pitcher: Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)
If you want to know about Edwin Jackson, just take a look in your grocer's freezer at a hot new ice cream flavor known as "vanilla."
You can put sprinkles and syrup and whipped cream and cherries all over vanilla ice cream to convince yourself it's better just because it has something else covering it, but it's still vanilla ice cream.
Edwin Jackson is much the same. He's been traded 28 times in the past 3 seasons if I remember correctly, but, no matter how much you dress him up with a new uniform in a new city, he's still suuuper average. Seriously, though, the Cardinals are his 6th team since 2008 (if you include his trade to Toronto this season so he could get traded to St. Louis, which I do). He's 60-60 in his career with a 4.46 ERA. He threw a no-hitter last year, only no one cared because he walked 8 batters. I don't even care enough to mention what any Phillies player has done against him in their careers. That's partially because we don't have a ton of experience against him (if Jimmy Rollins has 0 at bats, no one should have any), but it's also partially because there's really only one thing worth mentioning about him...
Edwin Jackson has very limited playoff numbers. He pitched only in 2008. He did well against the Red Sox in the ALCS, then he appeared in one game in the World Series (ya know, the one that we WON?!). That game? Game 4. What did he do? Pitched 2 pretty insignificant innings and gave up a meaningless run. Only the run wasn't all that meaningless, because it was a home run. And it was hit by Joe Blanton.

Prediction: Phillies 5 Cardinals 1

Keep an eye out for: Edwin Jackson. Seriously, look for him. He has a tendency to blend in with all of his surroundings and go completely unnoticed in life.

NLDS Game 3 Preview

The best-of-5 series is currently tied 1-1.

Game 2 was depressing. There's no denying that.

Perhaps the Eagles game felt a little different listening to it on the internet down here in VA, because I was nowhere near as upset as all of southeastern Pennsylvania seemingly was via Facebook and Twitter. As the Birds built up a huge lead and then slowly but surely let it slip away, I took solace in the fact that the Steelers were still managing to suck. The NFL isn't really my thing anyway.

Then came the tweets and status updates consisting of the tri-state area expressing more interest in leaping off of the Ben Franklin Bridge or stepping down off that ledge just to lay down in traffic than stick around long enough to see what the Phillies had in store. I had no idea that this loss hurt so bad. What was the big deal? We still had the Phils to look forward to, not dread!

Then, something horrible happened. My apathy towards Philadelphia football turned into a way too similar Philadelphia baseball experience. I love blaming myself for losses, and I've got all kinds of reasons that this one is on me:
1) I didn't give a crap about the Eagles losing, so the Phillies had to lose in much the same way so I could experience the pain of everyone else from my home state (yes, everyone else. I'm from Pennsylvania. If you weren't upset by football AND baseball yesterday, you're probably from the state of West Pennsylvania).
2) I predicted a loss. I like to stay true to what I think, and I'd probably predict the same thing if I had to do it again. But that doesn't mean it wasn't in all of the players' heads going into the game after reading the blog.
3) I didn't wear any Phillies gear. It was a pretty lazy Sunday for me, and I failed to put on my Chase Utley jersey until after we were already losing. Idiot.
4) I bought a case of PBR before the game on Saturday and decided I was only going to drink it during games. While I didn't drink it any other time, I also didn't drink it during the game. My bad, guys.
5) I didn't force my friend Dave to come over and watch after he was here on Saturday night.
6) I tried to act like superstitions don't matter.

The Phils losing takes a huge mental and emotional toll on me in these ways. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to fall asleep after single-handedly losing a Phillies playoff game? Well, it's pretty tough (although, admittedly, not so tough the following afternoon when you have a butt ton of other stuff to be doing instead of passing out).

The reality we all need to face, though, is that this game was essentially no one's fault. We were (and are) the better team. The Cardinals had an abundance of what I like to call Bull's Hits. What does that mean? Well, one of the newer statistics that has been kicked around over the past couple years is something called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. A normal BABIP is around .300. The Phillies' BABIP last night was, if my calculations are correct, .240. That could suggest that we weren't hitting the ball very hard, so we can take some heat for that. The Cardinals, however, had a BABIP of.464. Thirteen of their 27 balls that were hit in play dropped in for hits. And we saw them all drop in crappy spots: ground balls between shortstop and third, bloops singles into short right field, and liners that went just a couple feet over the infielders and in front of the outfielders. While we can expect those hits to drop in about 30% of the time (a .300 BABIP), the almost 50% that the Cardinals experienced is mostly due to luck, not skill. That's where I get the name Bull's Hits. Take out the apostrophe and push those words together, and you see what most of the hits truly were (I'll let you figure it out in hopes of keeping this blog pretty PG).

Yes, it is extremely frustrating to blow a 4-0 lead. I'm not excusing the Phillies blowing that lead, because they ultimately did, but I am saying that a lot of it was a freak accident. They weren't necessarily the better team, but they certainly were the luckier team. If the game plays out the way a normal baseball game should, we hold onto that 4-0 lead. Much like I said yesterday, a loss is still a loss, but it can at least put our minds at ease a little.

Before getting to the preview, I want to quickly say that Tony LaRussa is a total douche.

Game 3 Preview:

Phillies pitcher: Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA)
Cole Hamels has somehow been slightly forgotten in the Phillies rotation with the beginning of the postseason. He didn't have the greatest end to the season, going 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in September. That's way more fresh in our minds than his 11-4, 2.32 ERA first half of the season. His awful 2009 postseason seems to have erased the memory of 2008 and overshadowed his limited work in 2010. None of that, however, means that he's not ready to be great.
He had just one start against the Cardinals this season, and it was just a few weeks ago during our 8-game losing streak. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs and 2 home runs while getting the loss. He did, however, strike out 9 and not walk anyone in the game. He also only threw 91 pitches in the 7 innings of work. The 5-0 loss was dominated by Allen Craig, who went 3 for 4 with 2 homers (one off Hamels), a double, and 3 RBI. Albert Pujols accounted for the other 2 runs with a home run of his own.
In his career against this Cardinals roster, Hamels has allowed them to hit an inflated .270. He's also surrendered 4 home runs, including the ones from Craig and Pujols, as well as another from Pujols and one from Ryan Theriot. Theriot, Craig, and Lance Berkman all have .333 batting averages against him.
Pujols and Rafael Furcal are the hitters that he's managed to shut down the best over the years, allowing them to hit just .174 and .200, respectively, in a combined 33 at bats.
Hamels' career playoff numbers seem to tell 2 different stories. Combined, he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA. If you split that up, though, he is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 2007 and 2009, and he is 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in '08 and 2010. While these numbers might suggest that 2011, being an odd year, will be a down year for him, I call malarkey. I think that we see the good postseason Hamels this year, feeling like he has something to prove in these playoffs.

Cardinals pitcher: Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
Jaime Garcia has, for the past 2 seasons, been the most dreaded of pitchers for the Phillies to face. He fits into that classic mold that has killed us for years now. He's young, he's a lefty, and we don't have a lot of experience against him. Those things, though, should not be as big of a concern as they have been in the past.
Garcia somehow escaped getting a win against the Phillies this season despite having incredible numbers against us. In 2 starts, he threw 15 innings, allowed just 13 base runners, and only gave up 1 earned run to give himself a 0.60 ERA against us.
The Phillies batters who have given him the most trouble are John Mayberry and Hunter Pence. Mayberry is 3 for 6 with a double and an RBI, and Pence's .200 batting average is made up for by the fact that his 3 hits are a double, a triple, and a home run. For a roster with a .202 average against him, it's tough to find something really great.
As for who struggles, that would be essentially everyone else. Rollins .091; Utley 0-for-6; Howard .167; Victorino .222; Ibanez 1-for-3; Polanco .182; Ruiz 0-for-3. We are so bad against him that I almost had to say that Suckhole is one of our best hitters against him. Due to limited at bats though, I am going to avoid that. Along with that, it seems pretty clear to me that Mayberry should be starting this game. All biases aside, a look at Mayberry's numbers, along with what he can create on the base paths and his ability to consistently hit for extra bases, will tell really anyone with any sense that he should be getting an opportunity to start this game. Anyone with any sense, though, doesn't always include Charlie Manuel.
Looking at all of the statistics that I've given here, it's easy to be discouraged by this matchup. So why am I not? Well, like I said, Garcia has been a young lefty that we hadn't seen very often in the past. Now, we've seen him a few times. Now, we have an extra righty (possibly 2 *fingers crossed*) in our lineup with Hunter Pence. With every new pitcher we see, we get to a point where we either start really getting to them, or we let them dominate us forever. Is Jaime Garcia really worthy of being a pitcher that we let dominate us forever? He's pitching 3rd on a team who started Kyle Lohse in Game 1 and had to trade for Edwin "Extra Medium" Jackson during the season to sure up their starting rotation. For this Phillies team, it feels like it's now or never with Garcia, and I think the time is now.

Prediction: Phillies 6 Cardinals 0

Keep an eye out for: Garcia being driven out of the game early as he struggles to handle the pressure of a playoff atmosphere in St. Louis. Garcia is making his first playoff appearance, and I think the only thing tougher than him pitching in Philadelphia could very well be him pitching at home in St. Louis. It's a great baseball city with high expectations, and that pressure might be more difficult than the hostile Philly fans. Hamels' experience will carry him to the shut-down outing we've been waiting for (for 2 whole games!) from a starter.

NLDS Game 2 Preview

The Phillies currently lead the best-of-five series 1 game to 0.

After going through the week leading up to the playoffs explaining how important defense is and how acceptable a .250 postseason batting average is, the Phillies and Cardinals decided to make me look like a complete majoke with an 11-6 Game 1. A lot of positives came out of this for the Phils, but a few negatives come to mind as well. Let's start with the negatives so that we can go into the Game 2 preview on a happier note.

Roy Halladay should never be criticized, but there is a problem that the Phillies have had over the past few years now with giving up first-inning runs. I saw a statistic yesterday that said Halladay has allowed the first batter of the game to bat .452 this season. While one batter is not a huge deal, a runner on first is not a great way to start the game. When we score 11 runs in a game, that's not necessarily a huge deal. When the games get to be 3-2 or 2-0 (which will happen, I promise), that first batter is going to mean a whole lot more.
While that problem may be a little bit of a stretch, the problem with our bullpen may be more serious. I don't want to make too much out of a meaningless 9th inning in a game where we had an 8-run lead, but it is something we should look out for. Is this what Stutes is going to do in the playoffs? I don't expect his 81.01 ERA to keep up, but I am anxious to see how he responds to that rough outing. Is this going to serve as a wake-up call of sorts that gets him motivated for the postseason, or is it a showing of what is to come from him in any type of pressure situation? And I would hardly call the 9th inning of an 11-3 game a "pressure situation." Our relievers are largely inconsistent or inexperienced. We are going to be relying on Antonio Bastardo (inexperienced), Joe Blanton (inconsistent), Kyle Kendrick (inconsistent), Brad Lidge (inconsistent), Ryan Madson (inexperienced as a closer), Michael Stutes (inexperienced), and Vance Worley (inexperienced). I don't know about you, but that doesn't thrill me in a close game.

Clearly, though, the game was not all negative. After all, we won! And at the end of the day, a win is a win is a win. In the playoffs, you just need to win. It doesn't need to be pretty or inspiring, it just needs to come out as a win. We potentially play 19 games, and we only need to go 11-8 in the right way to get another World Series. With that being said, it was a good win from the 2nd to the 8th inning. Halladay only allowed 2 balls out of the infield after the first inning, and his only base runner allowed was the leadoff man in the 2nd. He's pitched 17 NLDS innings in the last 2 seasons, and he's only given up a hit in 2 of them.
Chase Utley and Shane Victorino each had 3-hit games.
Ryan Howard hit a home run that actually clipped a low-flying plane.
Raul Ibanez did positive things
If this is what our offense is going to look like during the postseason, we can call up Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and have them come start for us again. Heck, bring Omar Daal back so he can taste a playoff victory. We could even let Michael Stutes pitch if he wants to! (What I'm basically trying to say is, this was a great game for our offense)

While there is bad and good to be taken from the game, today's Game 2 is a completely new game. We can hope that our bats stay hot and that Cliff Lee dominates like Roy did, but we really can't know what's going to happen. We sure can try though...

Game 2 Preview:

Cardinals pitcher: Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA)
Chris Carpenter has been the ace of the Cardinals rotation since he got there, winning the Cy Young in his 2nd season with St. Louis in 2005. For really the first time since anyone can remember, he came out this year and did not completely dominate opposing teams. It took him until July to get his ERA under 4.00 for good, and until his last 5 starts of the season, he was still up at 3.92.
His last 5 starts, though, have him entering the postseason pretty hot. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 40 innings.
Included in there is an 8-inning outing against the Phillies in which he gave up 0 runs and shut us out. His other start against Philadelphia lasted 7 innings, and he allowed just 6 base runners and gave up only 1 run in a 12-2 win for the Cardinals.
As a team, we have only a .224 career batting average against him. Polanco, Utley, and Victorino have enjoyed the most success against him. Polanco has a .313 average with a triple, Utley is 7-for-15 lifetime (.467) with a double, and Victorino is a .300 hitter with a double as well.
If you look at the rest of our starting lineup, though, they hit just .158. Howard is the best of that bunch with a .222 average and one home run, but that's about as positive as it gets. Rollins and Pence have seen him the most, a combined 50 at bats between the two of them.
Carpenter has been known to pitch very well in the playoffs. His career numbers include 9 starts, a 5-2 record, and a 2.93 ERA. Most of those numbers are from 2005 and 2006, though. In his only other postseason start (2009), Carpenter gave up 9 hits and 4 runs while walking another 4 in just 5 innings. Will that Chris Carpenter show up, or will it be the one who pitched so well during extended playoff runs for St. Louis in '05 and '06?
My biggest worry about Carpenter is an ability to keep his pinch count pretty low. Couple that with the fact that we don't have much success against him, and it could end up being a long day for the Phillies offense.

Phillies pitcher: Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)
Cliff Lee, more than anything else it seems, is a big-game pitcher. In games against playoff teams this season, he went 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA, and he was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA against playoff teams starting with a May 21 matchup against his former team, the Texas Rangers. He comes into this postseason with more of a reputation for October dominance than anyone else.
He has faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. One of those games was a shutout, and the other was a nationally-televised disaster in mid-May in which he walked 6 batters. Still, he only gave up 3 runs in that game, a game where the Phillies managed to only score 1.
Cardinals hitters have a .225 average against him, and only Rafael Furcal has hit a home run off of him of anyone on their current roster. Furcal is 2-for-3 against him lifetime. Lance Berkman is the most notable of the other Cardinals with success against Lee, going 5-for-13 (.385) lifetime with 3 doubles and 3 RBI. Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot are also around the .300-mark against him.
Lee has shut down most other Cardinals. The highest batting average of the rest of their players is Yadier Molina's .231. Pujols is just 1-for-8 with 2 walks, and Matt Holliday is only 1-for-6 with 4 walks. It appears that if Lee can keep his control, he should be able to go through the Cardinals order without too many speed bumps.
As for him being a big-game pitcher, the easiest way to see it is in looking at his postseason numbers. Although he's only played in October twice, it is fresh in everyone's mind because it was the last 2 seasons, and he has led his ball club to the World Series both years. He has 10 starts, 3 of which are complete games, and he has struck out 80 batters in 76 innings. His 7-2 record and 2.13 ERA are incredible postseason numbers, and I expect him to continue that dominance this year.
He and Carpenter both have the potential to be deadly, but Lee actually has a tendency to run his pitch count up a little bit, as opposed to Carpenter's ability to keep it so low. This could be what decides the game.

Prediction: Cardinals 2 Phillies 1

Keep an eye out for: Carpenter lasting a little bit longer than Lee and the Cardinals' offense taking advantage against our questionable bullpen. If Lee can keep his pitch-count low (or hit a home run or two), the result could be the opposite. Either way, I think I'll be taking the under in this game

NLDS Game 1 Preview

As we move through the playoffs, I can't give you a good preview of an entire series. It's very different from the regular season...not knowing who is going to pitch, how people are going to play in the pressure of the playoffs, or how many games there will be. Because of this, you can look forward to a preview for every game.

Yes, I'm actually going to try to preview every. Single. Game. You think I can't do it? Well, you may be right. But I may be crazy. (...but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.)

Hopefully with each one, I can do a recap of the game before and an overall look at how the series is going. Knowing that that will be tough, my main focus will be just to get you information about the upcoming game.

I gave some of my opinion on this series in the Playoff Male Bag, and it's really tough to look at a playoff series as a whole. I don't think we sweep the series, and the Game 4 pitching matchup is not available yet, so it's hard to tell. Originally, I had heard that Jaime Garcia was starting for the Cardinals in Game 1, but it's since been changed to Kyle Lohse. Things are too unpredictable in that way to look at everything at once. I do have a few stats from the season series that I'll share, but things are totally different in the postseason. So, here's our season series at a glance as well as a preview of today's game

Series result: Cardinals won 6-3

Starting pitching:
Cardinals 62.2 IP, 51 H, 11 R, 8 ER, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 1.15 ERA
Phillies 56.1 IP, 52 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 17 BB, 43 K, 4 HR, 2.88 ERA

Relief pitching:
Cardinals 19.1 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 19 ER, 10 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, 8.84 ERA
Phillies 24 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 15 BB, 14 K, 3 HR, 6.00 ERA

Phillies individual stats, the good news:
Cliff Lee: 2 starts, 15.1 innings, 12 hits, 3 ER, 7 Ks, 1.76 ERA; 1 shutout
Vance Worley: 6 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 1.50 ERA
Ryan Madson: 2 innings, 0 runs, 1 K, 0.00 ERA
Chase Utley: 9-for-28, 3 runs, 3 RBI, .321 AVG
Jimmy Rollins: 11-for-39, 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, .282 AVG
Carlos Ruiz: 8-for-24, 4 runs, 3 RBI, 2B, HR, .333 AVG

Phillies individual stats, the bad news:
Cole Hamels: 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 HR, 5.14 ERA
Michael Stutes: 2.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 Ks, 11.57 ERA
Ryan Howard: 4-for-18, 7 Ks, .222 AVG
Raul Ibanez: 2-for-24, 6 Ks, .083 AVG, .328 OPS
*******************************************************************************

Game 1 Preview:

Cardinals pitcher: Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA)
I hate Kyle Lohse. He helped us out in getting to the playoffs in 2007, then decided he deserved more money than we would give him and left. Then we won the World Series. So screw him.
This season, we faced Lohse twice, and he went 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA against us. That pretty much sums up our season series with the Cardinals...a pitcher with a great ERA and no winning record. Howard and Rollins both had a home run off of him in the game that we won. In the game that we lost, Howard didn't play and we only managed 1 unearned run off of Lohse.
In terms of career numbers in the playoffs, he is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA doesn't seem bad, but it really doesn't cut it in the playoffs. Games often end with scores like 3-2 or 2-0, and a 3.38 ERA suggests he's giving up 3 runs in 8 innings. A lot of times, that will be enough for the opposing team to run with and win. He's only ever started 1 game in the postseason, and he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and got the loss.
In terms of career numbers against our players, Lohse should be most worried about Howard, Pence, and Polanco. Howard is a .500 hitter against him in 16 at bats with 2 homers and 8 RBI. Hunter Pence, although he has never homered off of Lohse, has seen him the most and has a .317 average against him in 41 at bats. Polanco hits .375 when Lohse is on the mound, although he has no extra-base hits (classic Polanco).
Lohse has been able to shut down Utley, Victorino, and Rollins, though, holding them to batting averages of .167, .208, and .185, respectively. It seems that we don't necessarily have trouble getting hits off of him (7 in each of his starts this year; a .278 average against him with our current roster), but we just need to get runs off of him. It seems he's been strangely good at getting us out once we have people on base. Why do I say "strangely good?" Because he's not actually good, that's why.
As I mentioned in the preview of our June series with the Cardinals, the most annoying part of Kyle Lohse is not how weirdly good he is or how he left the Phillies. It's how he pronounces his last name. I hate facing him just because of how wrong he is on the pronunciation of an odd grouping of 5 letters.

Phillies pitcher: Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA)
Roy Halladay is not mortal. Giving him the ball in our first playoff game has an incredibly comfortable and confident feel to it. Do we trust anyone more than Roy Halladay? Not just on the Phillies roster, but, like, anyone in the world? I don't even trust my wife as much as I trust Roy Halladay (true, that is mostly because I don't have a wife. But you get the point).
Halladay has horrible Halladay numbers against the Cardinals this season. In 2 starts, he's compiled a 3.21 ERA. A 3.21 ERA! Can you believe that crap?! He's 0-1 in those starts and has allowed an offensive 16 base runners in 14 innings. While this description is clearly dripping with sarcasm, it is kind of odd that he has pitched twice against the Cardinals and not managed a win. So who gives him so much trouble?
Well, the Cards' playoff roster has a .234 career average against Halladay. Lance Berkman is 2-for-5 with a home run, Skip Schumaker is 3-for-8, and Rafael Furcal is 3-for-9 with double against him. So no one really dominates Halladay, and, if they have, it's been in very limited at bats. Albert Pujols, who is obviously the biggest worry going into the series, is just 2 for 11 with a double against Doc in his career. Matt Holliday, another big bat in their lineup, is only 1 for 6. He is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury, so we will see how much action he sees in this series. (Hopefully he doesn't play in Game 1, if for no other reason than avoiding the confusion of Halladay-Holliday matchups.) All of this just tells me that the Cardinals "success" against Roy is kind of an accident, or mostly just due to timely hitting.
Can we figure that Halladay will step up in the playoffs and avoid giving up any awkward or accidental runs? Well, there was that no-hitter thing that he threw to open up the playoffs last season, so I guess we can somewhat expect him to step it up. Last year, in his first playoff run, he pitched 3 games, 22 innings, and struck out 20 guys while going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Those numbers are solid. Some may think they are skewed by the no-hitter, but those people just have to remember one thing: He threw a no-hitter. That means he's good. I expect big things out of Roy. He is always putting the Phillies in the best position to win, so we just need to take advantage of that.

Prediction: Phillies 3 Cardinals 0

Keep an eye out for: Ryan Howard making up for what he didn't do in the regular season by getting a few hits, including a home run. I'm also feeling a nice 7 innings out of Roy, a Lidge-Bastardo combo 8th inning, and a nice 1-2-3 9th by Ryan Madson.

Playoff Male Bag

This will be the shortest (and probably the last for this season) Male Bag because A) I don't have a ton of time 2) You all didn't ask a ton of questions and D) I'll be posting way more often in the playoffs. With it being a Playoff Male Bag, I tried my best to stay on topic. Here goes:

You should have saved the HR blog for October. It's obvious that all of the Phillies are now reading the blog and working hard to hold up to your high expectations.

Because of this, I will do my best to speak only in positives. Luckily, the Phillies don't give me many negatives to mention.
(See? Doing it already!)

Does this 6-game (maybe more) losing streak worry you? If so, how much? Sure we are resting guys and playing our nubs but come on.

Did it worry me? Sure, a little, because losing is losing. No matter who is playing, there's no way they go out there and don't care about winning. Every guy, whether it be Roy Halladay or Brandon Moss, was playing his very hardest when he was on the field. They are professional athletes, and that's what they do. This is one reason that I hate when people describe athletes as "competitive." "Oh man, this guy's a real competitor." "He's got a competitive streak in him!" DUH! I guarantee you every one of those guys was super annoying when growing up because of how competitive they were. You always wanted to be on their team - not because they were good, but because it was way too annoying to be on the other team and get killed by them. Have I talked about this before? Oh well. The point is: Everyone except Jose Reyes cares about winning. So not winning is scary because everyone wants to. Clinching a playoff berth does not change that. It worried me in that way.
It did not worry me, though, in the sense that these really were our "nubs" playing. As I've pointed out before, we didn't play a single game during what ended up being an 8-game losing streak with our regular lineup. All we needed was to get them back into a rhythm or routine, playing every day in the same spot in the lineup and same spot in the field. I knew once that would happen that we'd stop being so majokey.

Do the Fightin's still have HK's sports coat and white kicks in the dugout?

I'm not really sure about that. I think they do; I feel like I remember seeing it at some point this year. I don't know though. I'm not even sure how to go about researching that. Does anyone else know? If you do, please share. If they don't, I think they at least need to bring it back for the playoffs. Harry should be a part of every Phillies playoff run. Also, we should lynch Christopher Wheeler*.

You worried about a potential Cardinals matchup?

Of course I am. I'd be worried about any team that we have to face. We haven't exactly shut down any of the teams that were involved with the playoff race other than the Braves. And the Braves suck too bad to make the playoffs. The Brewers are a good team, and our taking of 3 out of 4 games in Milwaukee shouldn't fool anyone into thinking we'd easily sweep them in a series. The Diamondbags split the season series with us, and they are just kind of annoying to have around. The Cardinals, though? Well, they are the team we have the most reason to worry about. We went 3-6 against them. Their starters had a 1.15 ERA against us, pitching an average of 7 innings per game. Meanwhile, our starters went just 2-4 against them. Not that they pitched poorly (2.88 ERA), we just had trouble getting them support. Ryan Howard, who kills St. Louis historically, hit just .222 against them this season. Plus, Raul Ibanez sucks even worse against them (believe it or not, it's possible). He hit .083 against them, and he played left field, so that means his defense was horrible.
I'm definitely worried about the matchup in some way, but, despite all of those numbers, I wouldn't say I'm any more worried than I would be if it were any other team. It's the playoffs! We don't play the Cubs, Astros, and Padres anymore. We play the good teams. We play the teams that deserve to be here. And we have proven throughout the season that we deserve it more than any of them. Now we just need to prove it.

Why are you shaving your current beard to start a new one?

I looked up the rules to Playoff Bearding. I used a few different sets, so I can't really give you a link, but I'll give you MY rules that I have come up with that seem to be a general consensus:
1. Must be clean shaven at the beginning of the playoffs. Shave as close to game time as reasonably possible without extending into the start of the actual game.
2. No length may be taken off of the actual beard, however you choose to grow it. It does not necessarily need to be a full beard, but you need to know what you're doing and stick to it throughout.
3. You may shape up and shave around the beard, but this can only occur after your team loses a game.
4. Once your team is eliminated from the playoffs, the beard must be shaved clean again. If you do not do this, it's complete disrespect to the Playoff Beard as well as your team, essentially claiming that you were growing a beard "just because." Get a job.
5. If your team wins it all, there is no requirement after that. Do with your beard as you wish. (This is where the "Hair Timeout" that I want to invent would come in handy. At any point in your life, you can call a "Hair Timeout," and your hair will look like that for as long as you have the timeout going. It's obviously impossible to invent, but boy wouldn't that be great? A good hair day could last forever! In this case, you'd be able to keep your beard at whatever length it was at when your team won. What could be sweeter?)

They'll win right? Should I be worried about how much losing they've been doing lately?

Yes, they'll win. I think we have the right combination of indescribable talent in our pitching staff, "This-Might-Be-Our-Last-Chance" desire in guys like Rollins, Howard, and Utley, and "HolyCrapThisIsAwesomeLetsPlayReallyHardJustSoWeCanKeepPlaying" in Hunter Pence. He's insane. Like I said earlier, don't get too worked up about the losing. I don't even remember it. That last series with the Braves was exactly what we needed. A series that felt real because it was for the Braves, and we showed that we'll just snap your hopes and dreams in half if we feel like it. Because we're that good and we want this that much.

Can't wait until he does that in October #Raoops

(I may have to completely abandon my positive attitude for this one) This tweet came after a strikeout with the bases loaded in Wednesday night's game. As I've said countless times this year (but really not countless...you could probably count them), Raul will be the death of us in October (if there is one) because of the pattern he's gone through of good month-bad month this season. September was his "good" month, and he hit .258 with 3 homers. Can we please not wait around to see what the bad month will be? Can we just make the adjustment and put Mayberry in left to begin the playoffs? Our first game will be against a lefty, so it's an adjustment that makes sense for the hand-happy Uncle Chuck, and it gives us better defense when it matters the most (October). Ibanez sucks. Raul Ibanez sucks. He is terrible. The thought of him swinging and leaving his shoes at home plate makes me sick to my stomach. Picturing him sliding in the outfield to attempt to trap a ball with his glove that hops over his head for a triple keeps me up at night. PLEASE DON'T LET HIM PLAY! DO NOT LET HIM BLOW THIS FOR US! DON'T DO THIS TO ME!!!

The best thing about the playoffs, no more [Christopher Wheeler]

And the worst thing? Much more Joseph Buck. Ohhhh man. Did I just establish that Joseph Buck and Timothy McCarver are undeserving of nicknames as well? I think I did. Get ready for some serious commentator complaining (I feel like I should be able to combine those 2 words to trademark a new term) during this playoff run.

Are you nervous?

I don't get nerves...I give 'em.

*If this blog has gotten to the point where people actually read it (it hasn't), it should be noted that this is a total joke. I don't actually want to lynch Christopher Wheeler (yes I do**).

**Once again, total joke***

***Not really

UH OH!!! Influx of questions at the last minute! You can dry those eyes and put away those tissues. Here's more MALE BAG!!!

What are your thoughts on the ESPN article regarding playoff clinching celebrations? I mean are they excessive? Does the abundance of alcohol send a bad message? Did the writer go out of bounds by playing the Adenhart card?

I didn't see this article, and it shocks and depresses me that I was unable to find it, considering that the internet still exists as I type this. But I get the gist of what it is saying from this question, and I have to agree and disagree with said article. The celebrations sure are excessive. I don't think that any of the Phillies would have told you that they were happy with "just" making the playoffs this season. So why celebrate that much? We still have work to do. On the other hand, it's nice to have a chance to let loose and look at those things in a certain perspective. Making the playoffs is a big deal to the teams who didn't make it. And it's certainly a big deal to the Cardinals and Rays this season. When I talk about goals with my students, I actually plan on making a similar comparison (because I've learned that EVERYTHING can be related to sports). If you have a baseball team, what is the goal for the end of the season? Winning the World Series. Ok, so how do you do that? Get to the World Series. How do you do that? Win the LCS. What do you have to do to accomplish that? Win the LDS. What about to get there? Make the playoffs... and so forth. It shows that today truly matters in where you are 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 10 years from now. Not that every day's goal (win the game) or weekend's goal (win the series) or month's goal (have a winning record) will be grounds for a huge celebration, but it is good to set up a series of rewards for yourself. Oh man. I really am a teacher.
As for the alcohol aspect, I don't know how I feel about it. I always picture it as more of a champagne thing than a beer thing. I think the beer makes it sort of common. It's cool for the Phillies just because it's Philadelphia and there's some symbolism there, but I think that, for the most part, celebrations should be a little classier. Speaking of, I need to go out and get a few bottles of Andre to save up for the World Series victory. (And save them I will do. One thing that I don't like to do as a fan is celebrate before we're finished. I don't buy NL East Champions gear, and I will never again pop champagne before a World Series win (2009...ugh). Fans should hold out because we're not putting in the work that the players are. Player celebrations are justifiable; ours are not. Act like you've been there, and save it for the final victory. If we don't win the World Series, those bottles of champagne will taste even better after next year's championship)
Oh and the Adenhart thing seems unnecessary. Completely unrelated in my opinion. Why bring up those types of things in negative way at such a joyful time?

Feelings on seeing Jimmy in another uniform next year potentially? Will he be playing for a Phillies victory? Or for a great offer from his next team? Or is it both?

It'll be weird with him in another uniform, and I'm afraid it'll happen. I think he wants more money/years than we'll give him, and that makes me sad. The guy's done everything, and we could use that leadership, especially when Freddy Galvis finally gets called up for some utility work. He should have a chance to get mentored by Jimmy before just being thrust into a starting spot. And I certainly don't want some other big name guy playing there. If Jose Reyes is ever in a Phillies uniform, I will stop watching.
As for what he's playing for, I truly believe he's all Phillies right now. He sure does love himself, but he does it in a way that always benefits the team. Is there something in the back of his mind thinking about his next contract? Actually, I don't think so. Until some majoke of a reporter asks him about it, and then I hope he'll be too pissed and offended at the question to start that thinking. We shall see. I do think that it matters, though. Playing for the team is so much bigger than playing for yourself, and I think it keeps you looser. You know other people have your back as you have theirs. If he puts it on himself and is only playing for Jimmy, we're all in trouble.

Which of our favorite players do you think play for the fans, and who clearly doesn't? Does it matter?

I will first say that it doesn't matter. Like I just said, I think playing for your team is the most important, and I think everyone on the Phillies is doing that. With that being said, here's how I would break it down, player-by-player.
Halladay - He's all business. He loves the fans, but doesn't need them to perform
Lee - loves our fans. It's why he came back, and he definitely plays for them
Hamels - has started to play much more for the team since Halladay got here. Before that, I would've said he's all about himself
Oswalt - team
Madson - bullpen. Those bullpen guys love each other
Lidge - fans. He wants to impress and please Phillies fans and gain the trust back that he had in 2008
Bastardo - more bullpen. I feel like he doesn't talk to anyone else
Stutes - team
Worley - fans. He's pretty active on Twitter, so that tells me he wants fan approval
Kendrick - team
Blanton - team
Ruiz - team
Schneider - hopefully won't play, so it shouldn't matter. But team
Howard - mixes some fans in there when things are going well, but he only gets upset about letting the team down when things are tough, not the fans. That's a good thing
Utley - Chase Utley is perfect
Polanco - team
Rollins - mixes in the fans. Leaving us will be the toughest part if he goes
Valdez - team
Martinez - team
Ibanez - trying to slowly kill me
Victorino - fans. Ever get the feeling that he's that one friend who is funny but really just needs to shut up sometimes because he's trying too hard? Did typing that sentence just make me realize way too much about myself? Crap.
Pence - fans. New guys always love being appreciated in Philly
Mayberry - team
Francisco - who?
Gload - team

How bad are all of the new sitcoms in the new fall line up, seriously?

Well my sister is freakin' obsessed with Up All Night, and that's decently funny, except they're totally using Will Arnett in the wrong way! Will Arnett is a smartass and a jerk. That's how he's funny. Hot Rod anyone? But they are making him about to be an awkward and uncomfortable new father? Who is this benefitting?
The New Girl is getting all kinds of positive comments from guys my age everywhere, but Zooey Deschanel doesn't really do it for me as much as she does everyone else. I know I'll get a lot of crap for saying that, but isn't she just an artsy Katy Perry? Sure, I like her, but I'm not crazy about her. Sorry, Cheese.
Other than that, I haven't taken a look at too many new ones. We currently have 6 1/2 hours of television recording on Monday nights, 3 hours on Tuesdays, 2 1/2 hours on Wednesdays, and 3 hours on Thursdays. That's a lot to keep up with. I'm handling it (with ease), but it's still a lot. (15 hours of TV? Cripes. What is wrong with us? I would've hoped it would be way more than that!)

(Seriously. It's DVR. Why WOULDN'T you record stuff? Don't judge me. You're just jealous because you're still be restricted by juvenile television schedules. I laugh at your depression)

Are you really going to keep the blog going through October? Do you realize you have practically already met your goal for this season (blog franchise record?) even through a move and natural disasters?

Oh we're goin' there! I realized with almost every post in August and September that I've become a much better person over the past 2 years (Ladies, check out my commitment skills ;) Eh? Eh?). I realize that we've achieved a franchise record, but let's also look at the stats. Since the end of 2008, any time I stop doing a blog at any point while the Phillies are still playing, we lose. We have never lost a World Series in which I've kept a blog going throughout. Not having played in one in that situation is irrelevant.
As for the move and natural disaster stuff? Well, if you can define the word "aweso," then I guess you don't really need me. But if not, I'll be here all month.

Season (P)Review

So as a season review, I am going to do potentially the most confusing and inconsistent post I could possibly come up with. I have taken my season preview and changed it so that basically everything I say is an accurate depiction of what happened this season. I have literally copied and pasted the exact "Season Preview" post from March, and I have crossed out things that I want to take out, and I have added things that are in bold italics. I think I'm hilarious, so I thought this was pretty good. But I am convinced it probably will make no sense to anyone who is not me, and for that I am deeply sorry. Sorry enough to change it? No. But sorry nonetheless. Consider this payback for you asking me not nearly enough questions for a Playoff Male Bag that should be coming out tomorrow. There's still time though! It's never too late! You can still make it in the Male Bag! (This is me semi-subtly begging you to ask questions or make comments by tomorrow afternoon). But before we get to that Male Bag, here is your 2011 Season (P)Review!

Of the 45 baseball "experts" on ESPN.com, 27 of them have our beloved Phillies going to the World Series. It seems that everyone who has ever heard of baseball believes that the Phils are going to be matched up against the Red Sox who knows what AL team in the 2011 World Series. As much as I would love to see the Phils back in the Fall Classic, I think we should first take a good look at how realistic that is.

I'm going to start out being extra as negative as possible. This way, we can all feel a lot better about ourselves by the time I get to the end of this. We'll go with a "The Good Great, the Bad Surprisingly Good, and the Ugly Not So Bad" theme on this, but it's going to happen in reverse. Although "The Ugly Not So Bad, the Bad Surprisingly Good, and the Good Great " most certainly does not have the same ring to it.

The Ugley Not So Bad:

Did I just spell "ugly" wrong? Or does the current status of Baseball's knee bother me that much? I'm gonna go with the latter on this one. The best news I've heard about Chase's knee is that he's starting the season on the 15-day DL, suggesting that he may only be out 15 days. The worst news I've heard is that he could miss the whole season. Will either one of those things happen? My guess is no. But I definitely think we are looking at a solid month and a half at the very least, and maybe through the All Star break. What is so ugly about this? Besides the obvious (WE WON'T HAVE CHASE UTLEY), this puts Ryan Howard in a terrible less than perfect situation, and, thus, our entire lineup really, but not the worst because I think we acquire Hunter Pence at the deadline. Howard has had the luxury his entire career of having Utley get on base in front of him and having Jayson Werth or Pat Burrell protect him from the 5th spot. This year, he'll have 74-year-old Raul Raoops Ibanez Suckhole hitting behind him for half the season until we get Pence. Without the threat of Utley or Werth, Howard will be stranded on an island in the middle of our batting order. Can he produce like he has in the past? Doubtful. Will his on-base percentage be at an all-time high? I would think. No, not at all. If I'm playing the Phillies, I never give him a pitch to hit. Expect to see the Big Man walking to first A LOT an average amount this season.

The Bad Surprisingly Good:

· The bullpen. What was definitely our biggest need going into the offseason got completely ignored (well, not completely, if you consider the fact that our top 4 starters will pitch 7-9 innings every outing). Madson, Contreras, and Lidge were great last season, but Lidge is hurt (aka Lidge is on the Phillies), and we don't know how long that injury or its effects will last. In the meantime, no one else knows how to close. Yikes Ryan Madson can step very nicely into the closer’s role and dominate. Along with that, Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes will surprisingly lock down our bullpen for much of the season. I’ve got a good feeling about those guys. Especially Bastardo. Well…until September.

· Anything on our team starting with "right." Right-handed hitters are a thing of the past in Philadelphia, and our rightfielder is still a mystery (mostly because I don't want to admit that Ben Francisco is an everyday player in the major leagues and I fear it will take WAY too long to realize that John Mayberry is awesome). We do not have a single right-handed bat in our lineup that could be considered even somewhat of a power threat other than John Mayberry once he gets to start playing. And with Domonic Brown out with a broken hand to start the season, we lose that potential power in favor of Joe Camel and John Mayberry, who is actually better than Dom. I am hoping that John Mayberry gets some nice playing time at the beginning of the year and throughout, if for no other reason than to simply see if his father can be properly identified in the stands. And not just call any random person his dad just because said guy was black and happy after John's first career home run. (Fox sucks. And so does Joe Buck) I also want him to play because he’s effin’ good.

The Good Great:

Cole Hamels is our 4th starter.

Let's recap that last statement.

Cole Hamels (yes, Cole Hamels) is our 4th (as in not the best, 2nd best, or 3rd best) starter. What does this mean? We have 3 pitchers who are better than Cole Hamels. (than Cole Hamels!) I’m not sure if that will actually hold up, though, because Cole is way too good and Roy Oswalt seems old. Also, if tornadoes hit the southeast, he may have to go save his family. But on the off chance that doesn’t happen… The Braves' 4th starter is Jrrr Jrrrjrrjrrrs (or however you spell/pronounce his name). Not bad, but not Cole Hamels. OK, so he’s pretty good if he stays healthy. But he won’t. The Yankees' is Freddy Garcia. Not bad, but still not Cole Hamels. Cole legitimately should have won the 2008 Cy Young had he been given any run support. And he is our 4th starter. (At least to start the year)

With all of that being said, here is my impression on the upcoming season. We don't easily get the 96.5 wins that Vegas is putting us at, mostly because we don't have need much of an offense. That sounds crazy, but it's pretty true if you look at the last few seasons our pitching staff. We should win any game in which we score four 2 runs, but I truly worry about us scoring four 2 runs the first half of this season. We should will easily win the NL East, but and the Braves are definitely going to be tough hilariously pathetic come September. We should win the NL this season, but it's going to come down to our hitting in October, something we couldn't do last season. With what some people believe is our best team of the past 5 seasons, I somehow feel the least confident with this group. Pitching will get us very far, but I know that the bats will need to be alive in order for us to be truly successful.

So here are 7 predictions for the season. Why 7? Because I feel like it. That's why. And because I think that’ll be the total number of runs scored in the game that finishes the Braves’ epic collapse.

1. Joe Blanton Vance Worley will get 15 11 wins this season. At least to start the season, he should be facing better than the worst pitcher on the other our team. And don't you kind of get the feeling that he'll be the only one that the bats decide to hit for? I mean, I know it sounds crazy, seeing as he’s down in Lehigh Valley right now, but I have a good feeling about this guy.

2. Roy Oswalt Halladay will have the lowest ERA on the team. Just because I feel like no one is talking about him. Halladay won the Cy Young, everyone loves Cliff, and Cole is a lifetime Phillie. he’s a total beast.

3. Michael Martinez will become our everyday 2nd baseman. Until Chase is back, I feel like this guy that no one has ever heard of could randomly start turning some heads. I love Rule V guys, and he's just that. And I think names like Michael Martinez are hilarious. He's from the Dominican Republic. Why not name your kid Miguel? I could probably come up with a better prediction than this, and I don’t think it’ll actually happen, but whatever. Get off my back

4. Rollins will hit .300 .270ish. He's never done it before, and this feels like a year where someone will need to step up big on offense in the absence of Chase and Werth. Jimmy should feel like that's on him. ‘Cause that’s, like, right around his career average. So…yeah. Exciting prediction I know.

5. John Mayberry will hit 15 home runs. Mostly because I wanted him to last year. And because he’s the man. And because I’m in love with him. And it’ll only be such a low number because Uncle Chuck will, for some reason, never let him play consistently

6. Ryan Howard will win a Gold Glove the lottery. If for no other reason, because I'll look like a freakin' genius if this happens.

7. The Phillies will beat the White Sox Yankees in a 7 6-game World Series. I don't want to pick the Red Sox, so why not pick their arch nemesis arch nemesis to get there instead. And although I am skeptical about our offense beating the Cardinals if we have to face them in the playoffs, I can't honestly pick against us.

Missing Pieces

The playoffs are right around the corner. Our first game is set to be on Friday with an opponent still to be determined. People are getting concerned about our recent 8-game losing streak. While that's absolutely something to be worried about (more on that in the Playoff Male Bag), I, for one, am a little more worried about how weird I'm going to look with a clean-shaven face on Friday as I begin my Playoff Beard. Our whole lineup is healthy, and once they get back into the rhythm of playing together every day, I think we will be in fine shape. Case in point: today. For the first time since before the losing streak began, we actually played with what would be considered our everyday lineup. The result? An offensive explosion in the first 4 innings that resulted in 9 runs and at least one hit for every starter.

Because of this, the losing streak got me to thinking...what exactly are we missing without any one of the pieces from our normal lineup? And when I get to thinking, you usually get to read about it. So, in my opinion, here is what we miss out on if any of our players goes down before or during the playoffs:

Jimmy Rollins - Especially come playoff time, it would hurt to lose Rollins. He is an emotional leader of the team, and someone who has played that role since the beginning of our run of 5 straight division titles. His .226 career playoff batting average isn't anything to get even remotely excited about, but he has been known to come through in the clutch from time-to-time in our playoff runs. His glove at shortstop is still one of the best in baseball, and defense in the playoffs is as important as ever. Scoring is often limited, so we can't let the opposing team have any extra opportunities off of our mistakes. With Jimmy's glove, that's not something we have to worry about. While Wilson Valdez isn't bad, he's definitely a downgrade at the plate and in the field when compared to Jimmy.

Shane Victorino - Shane may have the best case for being the Phillies' offensive MVP this season. In 2008 and 2009 (our World Series years), he led the team in batting average in the regular season. He seems to be replacing Jimmy in the role of "As He Goes, We Go" for our offense. While his .263 playoff batting average isn't great, it's really not bad for what we need in October with our pitching staff. Even with a .263 average, his OPS is a respectable .796 with 16 extra-base hits and 28 RBI in 41 games. He's also a threat on the basepaths, more so than Jimmy is anymore. When we need to play small-ball and manufacture a few runs, Shane is key. And, along with Jimmy, his defense is irreplaceable. Once again, that's something that cannot be taken for granted on our road to another championship.

Chase Utley - Without Baseball, the offense struggles. We learned that in the first 2 months of the season. With him in the lineup, we have a psychological advantage. He's someone that we can count on to almost always be in the right place at the right time, like in the '08 series when he threw out Jason Bartlett going home to preserve the lead and the championship. While his defense on routine plays has not been his best quality in the playoffs, I still feel like I can rely on Baseball to do amazing things in the field. His composure cannot be replaced by the likes of Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, or Pete Orr. It's a huge drop-off without him in the lineup, and something that we would be unable to overcome in my opinion.

Ryan Howard - I have heard Ryan Howard get a lot of crap this season about his inability to come through in the clutch and how skewed his RBI numbers are due to the amount of opportunities he gets compared to everyone else. But look at this past week. With Howard out of the lineup during the losing streak, our offense was nearly nonexistent. The one game he did start, he had the only RBI. John Mayberry or Ross Gload cannot duplicate the fear he puts in opposing teams, nor can they affect an entire defensive strategy. With men on base, Howard's chances of getting a hit open up drastically due to a decrease in the shift. If I told you he had a better playoff batting average than Rollins, Victorino, and Utley, would you believe me? Well, I don't care. Because he does. His .278 average and .899 OPS are fantastic postseason numbers. While he got a lot of flak in 2009 for not producing in the World Series, his 17 RBI across the entire playoffs were irreplaceable, and we more than likely would not have been there without him. He's a defensive liability for the most part, but his offense should make up for any runs he costs us.

Hunter Pence - I argued not too long ago that he is the Phillies MVP this season and possibly the league MVP. As I have stated before, his impact on this offense cannot be overstated. With no playoff experience, some would worry that he'll freeze up. But Hunter Pence won't. He is way too excited to play baseball. You kind of get the feeling that he's too dumb to know that the games matter more, while at the same time being so hyped up about the playoffs that he might bat .750 and hit 11 home runs. He could end up being MVP of the NLCS and World Series and not even really know it. All he wants to do is play, and he'll play his best no matter what. Without him, we lose some of that energy. We lose the innocence of someone who hasn't been there before and is hungry for each and every game. He brings a fresh perspective to a team that's done it time and time again. You think this team won't appreciate this playoff run? Hunter Pence tells me otherwise. It's certainly an upgrade over anything we might get out of Ben Francisco.

Raul Ibanez - If we lose him, John Mayberry plays and our team gets worse. Except for defensively. Oh, and Mayberry is a better hitter for average. He has more power, too. And he can steal bases. But other than that, we're better off with Raoops. Yeah...

Placido Polanco - I'll say it again: Defense is super important in the playoffs. Polanco provides a consistent glove at 3rd, something that will surely save us a few runs here and there when every run counts. He's a .273 lifetime hitter in the playoffs, something that will absolutely come in handy out of someone who will likely be batting 7th for us. Without Polanco, Martinez or Valdez will play 3rd. While both are respectable replacements, they are definitely a step down on offense and defense. There's no denying that we are a worse team without him, lacking someone who can consistently get us singles at the back of our lineup.

Carlos Ruiz - Choochtober is something we all enjoyed in 2009 when he batted .341 with a 1.082 OPS. While I am excited to see what his .280 playoff batting average produces this year (tops on the team), the real irreplaceable part of Chooch is his work behind the plate. He has started all 41 of our playoff games over the past 3 seasons, and his ability to call games for 3 of the best pitchers in baseball has been invaluable throughout this entire season. He is as reliable as it gets at the catcher's position, and I fear what we would be in the playoffs with Brian Schneider behind the plate instead.

As for the bench, our best players are Ross Gload and John Mayberry, and we really don't want to be missing either one of those guys for the playoff run. They will be great options, depending on the pitcher, for a DH come World Series time (I say this only assuming that we are dumb enough to keep Raoops in the lineup and Mayberry on the bench).

Our starting pitching is going to be the key to our success in the playoffs. If they can pitch at their very best, no one can beat us. If any one of them were to get hurt or anything in the playoffs, it is good to know that we still have 2 guys that can shut down opposing hitters on any night.

Our bullpen is in a unique position going into the playoffs. Madson is our closer, but it feels like he hasn't closed a game in a month. Bastardo is our lefty, but he can't seem to throw a strike lately (other than ones that end up in the seats). Lidge may be our most consistent player out of the 'pen right now, but do any of us feel like he's really that consistent? Blanton, Kendrick, and Worley could all be pretty nice in the mid-to-late innings, depending on who makes the playoff roster. You would think Stutes would, but he hasn't really been all that reliable. While each player seems sort of replaceable, we also have to wonder who would replace them. What is the best bullpen we can put together? I'm not entirely sure, but it's something that will hopefully click once the postseason actually starts.

The bottom line is, a healthy Phillies team should have no team truly threaten them. The pieces are all in place, they just need to make sure they are all fitting together at the right time.

Motivation

It's no secret that I struggle to stay motivated for many of the things I do in life.

Writing a lesson plan? Not really my jam.

Working out/running/walking/generally getting up so as to avoid becoming morbidly obese? I can do that another time.

Registering my car in Virginia so I can drive legally? Eh.

Paying off college loans so I can one day hope to raise a family? We'll see.

Somehow, though, I have managed to stay motivated throughout this entire season. I've previewed or commented on every series (I think) and managed to do it through a season full of a teaching job, getting a new teaching job, moving to a different state, going to California, and starting a new teaching job. I'm not normally one to toot my own horn, but... beep beep. (OK, let's face it - I am one to toot my own horn. But that comment is worth the little white lie.)

So I'm writing this to tell you that the Phillies leave me feeling pretty unmotivated right now. I can accept a starting lineup that includes the likes of Brian Schneider, John Bowker, Erik Kratz, and maybe even Raul Ibanez (only because its so depressingly common that I have to accept it). But Ben Francisco? That's where I draw the line.

The Phils are in the playoffs, and we have nothing to play for other than staying fresh and killing the Braves' playoff hopes in the last series of the regular season. Does that mean I'm done for the season as well? Absolutely not! It just means that I need some more motivation than I'm getting now. So here's what's going to happen:

We have 8 games left now. By the time those 8 games are up and the playoffs start, I have 3 goals:

One post that will be a very generic outlook on the playoffs in some way that you probably won't expect (not exciting or anything, just not normal)

One post that recaps the season as a whole. I can take a look back at different predictions I made at the beginning and middle of the season and how they all played out. It should be a look at just the regular season as it was with no playoff implications.

A Playoff Male Bag! Start asking questions and making comments now and continue to as the playoff picture becomes more and more clear. If they playoffs started right now, we would play the Diamondbags in the first round (possibly my biggest rival), and the Braves and Brewers would have the other NL matchup. In the AL, it's the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, and Rangers at this moment. Take that information and hit me with any and all questions or comments you may have about it. The playoffs will be here before you know it!

Playoff Bound!

If you're here looking for a preview of a day-night doubleheader with the Marlins, get a job.

The Phillies clinched a playoff birth today for the 5th straight season, this time with 16 games remaining on the schedule.

Rewind 10 years. Do you ever think you'd read those words, especially this soon?

As October approaches, one thing is clear: Anything less than a World Series victory is a disappointment and a failure for this team and these fans. But let's take a break from the 2011 baseball season to put those expectations into perspective.

From 1993 to 2007, all we wanted was a playoff spot and nothing more. A World Series victory would've been nice and all, but really we just wanted the streak of mediocrity to finally end. And when it did, don't you remember how it felt?

I remember being in a room with about 6 or 7 other guys as we watched Brett Myers throw the last pitch to earn us the NL East title. I called everybody. It made no sense to text people at that moment. At that point in my life, I was texting everybody for everything. But the Phillies making the playoffs was worth 10-15 phone calls to people that I shared the joy and the pain with over the years. When we got swept in 3 games by the only team hotter than us going into the playoffs, I didn't even care that I was shaving off my playoff beard after less than a week. We had made it and finally shown that we could at least be relevant. That's all I wanted at that point.

In 2008, though, we all wanted more, and I would say we got more than we could ask for. Stories of the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Cleveland Indians not sniffing a championship drove us all insane for years.

Oh those poor Cubs fans. Living in Chicago all those years without a champion. Unless you count the 90's and them winning basically every NBA Finals. Or if you count the smart people who became White Sox fans instead of Cubs.

And the Red Sox fans. Man, that life must be tough. You know, having the most successful basketball team in history. And building an NFL dynasty when people thought dynasties were no longer possible in professional sports. So tortured.

Cleveland had the most going for them in terms of an argument with Philadelphia. They couldn't win a championship if their lives depended on it. And they don't even really come all that close. But, still, it's only 3 sports. While I don't want to downplay their pain, going through 4 seasons of loss per year is at least a little bit tougher.

So after enduring roughly 100 straight seasons of doing everything but winning, we finally had a chance on October 27, 2008. In the coldest rain I can guarantee any of you have ever experienced or ever will, the Phils got out to an early 2-0 lead, and, with Cole Hamels on the mound, it was inevitable that this game, series, and championship was ours. Mother Nature had other ideas, though. As the game experienced a delay in the 6th inning, my friend Matt and I stood in the warmest place we could find at Citizens Bank Park - the bathroom - for a few minutes while we heard people talk about whether or not the game would even continue. As we made our way back to our standing room only spot right behind home plate with my dad waiting for us, he basically said that the game was going to be called and we had to leave. As we walked around the concourse hearing all the rumors, the PA announcer finally came on saying that the game would be continued at a later time still to be determined.

With the game now tied, every horrible thought was going through my mind. Philadelphia's dream of seeing a championship - in any sport - was being delayed. Maybe not delayed for just a day or two. It may have been delayed for another season. Or another year. Or another 100 seasons.

We heard later that the game would be continued Wednesday night. I was going through a mild depression as I drove back to Penn State on Tuesday morning. I had class, and I really had no clue whether or not I'd be able to make it back.

Matt then told me what I feared most. He couldn't make it for the last 3 innings of the game. It was when he told me that that I realized there was no way I could miss the rest of this game. It was truly a once-in-a-lifetime experience. The Phillies had a chance to win the World Series and end a horrible string of Philadelphia failures, and I had a chance to witness it in person. I guess it's worth mentioning that the end of the game would fall on my 21st birthday.

My attitude quickly flipped from depressed to elated. Now, my friend Zack and I would drive back from Penn State again on Wednesday after my classes were over and get to my house in time to drive down to catch the subway to the stadium. I remember literally being unable to relax all day. I was just shaking or fidgeting in some way in every class that I went to. (Yet, somehow, THIS was the one day in college I decided that my classes were too important to skip. What is wrong with me?)

Without getting into too much detail about my own experience, I think there are some highlights of this game that we all just wish we could relive over and over again.

Geoff Jenkins led off the bottom of the 6th inning with a full-count double and ended up scoring the go-ahead run.

After a Rays' home run in the top of the 7th, Chase Utley made one of the greatest plays I've ever seen in my life, faking a throw to first on a ground ball up the middle only to throw home and get the final out of the inning, preserving our lead.

Pat Burrell then came inches away from a home run to take the lead. His double off the fencing above the wall would be his last at bat as a Philadelphia Philly. As Eric Bruntlett trotted out to pinch-run for him, I cried for the first time that night.

Pedro Feliz's single up the middle scored Bruntlett, giving the Phils the lead for good.

The 2008 J.C. Romero got us a 1-2-3 inning, and Brad Lidge was on in the 9th to do what he did best. And with 2 outs and Eric Hinske at the plate, history happened. Although I didn't have the same view as most at that moment, the image and the sound of that last out will always give me goosebumps.

I hugged my friend Bean, I hugged Zack, and I turned to my dad and completely lost it. As a fresh 21-year-old, I remembered every single second of my birthday, including the moment when I wept like a 21-month-old in my father's arms. The feeling of that hug is one that I guarantee I won't experience ever again. It was a hug for the 2008 season and the 2007 season, as well as every other season I had been following Phillies baseball. It was a hug that encompassed the heartache experienced with not only the Phillies, but with NFC Championship game losses, Stanley Cup failures and losses to the dreadful Pittsburgh Penguins, and a loss to the dynasty that was the early 2000's LA Lakers. It's a hug that I have trouble describing without having to try to hide my tears right now as my sister and brother-in-law sit in the room with me typing about it.

The pure joy that came after that cannot be exactly duplicated ever again. Double-digit random hugs and triple-digit random high-fives while walking through the ballpark. We basically partied in the stadium for 2 hours afterwards. Once again, I felt the need to call just about everyone I knew. (People still talk to me about how ridiculous that phone call was.) My dad and I actually got interviewed on live TV after the game. Everyone involved played such a key role in the enjoyment of the evening - my dad, Matt, Zack, Bean, Kelsey, Shane and Mr. Tobin, Costello and his brother, the short fat security guard right by where we were standing, every person that I called after the game, the random girl next to me whose name I somehow forget, and the guy who returned Zack's cell phone when he lost it going to the subway after the game. I'll never experience a night like that again. Most people won't. Everyone has their story about that night.

Do I want to win another World Series? Absolutely. Is making the playoffs enough for this team? Absolutely not.
But if I was really honest, I wouldn't care if the Phillies ever won another game. When will I ever feel any of that again? That feeling can never be re-created. That situation will never happen for any of us again. If the Phillies do win the World Series, it won't come close to what we experienced in 2008. It's impossible to live up to that. We suffered for 100 seasons and finally experienced some type of happiness in the sports world. Now what? We haven't really experienced suffering. We haven't won anything since, but we've been darn good. And being darn good on top of a championship is all you can ask for. Anything more is just getting greedy.

So, once again, do I want to win the World Series? Obviously. But, if we don't? Well, I still have this: