NLDS Game 2 Preview

The Phillies currently lead the best-of-five series 1 game to 0.

After going through the week leading up to the playoffs explaining how important defense is and how acceptable a .250 postseason batting average is, the Phillies and Cardinals decided to make me look like a complete majoke with an 11-6 Game 1. A lot of positives came out of this for the Phils, but a few negatives come to mind as well. Let's start with the negatives so that we can go into the Game 2 preview on a happier note.

Roy Halladay should never be criticized, but there is a problem that the Phillies have had over the past few years now with giving up first-inning runs. I saw a statistic yesterday that said Halladay has allowed the first batter of the game to bat .452 this season. While one batter is not a huge deal, a runner on first is not a great way to start the game. When we score 11 runs in a game, that's not necessarily a huge deal. When the games get to be 3-2 or 2-0 (which will happen, I promise), that first batter is going to mean a whole lot more.
While that problem may be a little bit of a stretch, the problem with our bullpen may be more serious. I don't want to make too much out of a meaningless 9th inning in a game where we had an 8-run lead, but it is something we should look out for. Is this what Stutes is going to do in the playoffs? I don't expect his 81.01 ERA to keep up, but I am anxious to see how he responds to that rough outing. Is this going to serve as a wake-up call of sorts that gets him motivated for the postseason, or is it a showing of what is to come from him in any type of pressure situation? And I would hardly call the 9th inning of an 11-3 game a "pressure situation." Our relievers are largely inconsistent or inexperienced. We are going to be relying on Antonio Bastardo (inexperienced), Joe Blanton (inconsistent), Kyle Kendrick (inconsistent), Brad Lidge (inconsistent), Ryan Madson (inexperienced as a closer), Michael Stutes (inexperienced), and Vance Worley (inexperienced). I don't know about you, but that doesn't thrill me in a close game.

Clearly, though, the game was not all negative. After all, we won! And at the end of the day, a win is a win is a win. In the playoffs, you just need to win. It doesn't need to be pretty or inspiring, it just needs to come out as a win. We potentially play 19 games, and we only need to go 11-8 in the right way to get another World Series. With that being said, it was a good win from the 2nd to the 8th inning. Halladay only allowed 2 balls out of the infield after the first inning, and his only base runner allowed was the leadoff man in the 2nd. He's pitched 17 NLDS innings in the last 2 seasons, and he's only given up a hit in 2 of them.
Chase Utley and Shane Victorino each had 3-hit games.
Ryan Howard hit a home run that actually clipped a low-flying plane.
Raul Ibanez did positive things
If this is what our offense is going to look like during the postseason, we can call up Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and have them come start for us again. Heck, bring Omar Daal back so he can taste a playoff victory. We could even let Michael Stutes pitch if he wants to! (What I'm basically trying to say is, this was a great game for our offense)

While there is bad and good to be taken from the game, today's Game 2 is a completely new game. We can hope that our bats stay hot and that Cliff Lee dominates like Roy did, but we really can't know what's going to happen. We sure can try though...

Game 2 Preview:

Cardinals pitcher: Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA)
Chris Carpenter has been the ace of the Cardinals rotation since he got there, winning the Cy Young in his 2nd season with St. Louis in 2005. For really the first time since anyone can remember, he came out this year and did not completely dominate opposing teams. It took him until July to get his ERA under 4.00 for good, and until his last 5 starts of the season, he was still up at 3.92.
His last 5 starts, though, have him entering the postseason pretty hot. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 40 innings.
Included in there is an 8-inning outing against the Phillies in which he gave up 0 runs and shut us out. His other start against Philadelphia lasted 7 innings, and he allowed just 6 base runners and gave up only 1 run in a 12-2 win for the Cardinals.
As a team, we have only a .224 career batting average against him. Polanco, Utley, and Victorino have enjoyed the most success against him. Polanco has a .313 average with a triple, Utley is 7-for-15 lifetime (.467) with a double, and Victorino is a .300 hitter with a double as well.
If you look at the rest of our starting lineup, though, they hit just .158. Howard is the best of that bunch with a .222 average and one home run, but that's about as positive as it gets. Rollins and Pence have seen him the most, a combined 50 at bats between the two of them.
Carpenter has been known to pitch very well in the playoffs. His career numbers include 9 starts, a 5-2 record, and a 2.93 ERA. Most of those numbers are from 2005 and 2006, though. In his only other postseason start (2009), Carpenter gave up 9 hits and 4 runs while walking another 4 in just 5 innings. Will that Chris Carpenter show up, or will it be the one who pitched so well during extended playoff runs for St. Louis in '05 and '06?
My biggest worry about Carpenter is an ability to keep his pinch count pretty low. Couple that with the fact that we don't have much success against him, and it could end up being a long day for the Phillies offense.

Phillies pitcher: Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)
Cliff Lee, more than anything else it seems, is a big-game pitcher. In games against playoff teams this season, he went 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA, and he was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA against playoff teams starting with a May 21 matchup against his former team, the Texas Rangers. He comes into this postseason with more of a reputation for October dominance than anyone else.
He has faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. One of those games was a shutout, and the other was a nationally-televised disaster in mid-May in which he walked 6 batters. Still, he only gave up 3 runs in that game, a game where the Phillies managed to only score 1.
Cardinals hitters have a .225 average against him, and only Rafael Furcal has hit a home run off of him of anyone on their current roster. Furcal is 2-for-3 against him lifetime. Lance Berkman is the most notable of the other Cardinals with success against Lee, going 5-for-13 (.385) lifetime with 3 doubles and 3 RBI. Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot are also around the .300-mark against him.
Lee has shut down most other Cardinals. The highest batting average of the rest of their players is Yadier Molina's .231. Pujols is just 1-for-8 with 2 walks, and Matt Holliday is only 1-for-6 with 4 walks. It appears that if Lee can keep his control, he should be able to go through the Cardinals order without too many speed bumps.
As for him being a big-game pitcher, the easiest way to see it is in looking at his postseason numbers. Although he's only played in October twice, it is fresh in everyone's mind because it was the last 2 seasons, and he has led his ball club to the World Series both years. He has 10 starts, 3 of which are complete games, and he has struck out 80 batters in 76 innings. His 7-2 record and 2.13 ERA are incredible postseason numbers, and I expect him to continue that dominance this year.
He and Carpenter both have the potential to be deadly, but Lee actually has a tendency to run his pitch count up a little bit, as opposed to Carpenter's ability to keep it so low. This could be what decides the game.

Prediction: Cardinals 2 Phillies 1

Keep an eye out for: Carpenter lasting a little bit longer than Lee and the Cardinals' offense taking advantage against our questionable bullpen. If Lee can keep his pitch-count low (or hit a home run or two), the result could be the opposite. Either way, I think I'll be taking the under in this game