Sunday, September 25, 2011

Missing Pieces

The playoffs are right around the corner. Our first game is set to be on Friday with an opponent still to be determined. People are getting concerned about our recent 8-game losing streak. While that's absolutely something to be worried about (more on that in the Playoff Male Bag), I, for one, am a little more worried about how weird I'm going to look with a clean-shaven face on Friday as I begin my Playoff Beard. Our whole lineup is healthy, and once they get back into the rhythm of playing together every day, I think we will be in fine shape. Case in point: today. For the first time since before the losing streak began, we actually played with what would be considered our everyday lineup. The result? An offensive explosion in the first 4 innings that resulted in 9 runs and at least one hit for every starter.

Because of this, the losing streak got me to thinking...what exactly are we missing without any one of the pieces from our normal lineup? And when I get to thinking, you usually get to read about it. So, in my opinion, here is what we miss out on if any of our players goes down before or during the playoffs:

Jimmy Rollins - Especially come playoff time, it would hurt to lose Rollins. He is an emotional leader of the team, and someone who has played that role since the beginning of our run of 5 straight division titles. His .226 career playoff batting average isn't anything to get even remotely excited about, but he has been known to come through in the clutch from time-to-time in our playoff runs. His glove at shortstop is still one of the best in baseball, and defense in the playoffs is as important as ever. Scoring is often limited, so we can't let the opposing team have any extra opportunities off of our mistakes. With Jimmy's glove, that's not something we have to worry about. While Wilson Valdez isn't bad, he's definitely a downgrade at the plate and in the field when compared to Jimmy.

Shane Victorino - Shane may have the best case for being the Phillies' offensive MVP this season. In 2008 and 2009 (our World Series years), he led the team in batting average in the regular season. He seems to be replacing Jimmy in the role of "As He Goes, We Go" for our offense. While his .263 playoff batting average isn't great, it's really not bad for what we need in October with our pitching staff. Even with a .263 average, his OPS is a respectable .796 with 16 extra-base hits and 28 RBI in 41 games. He's also a threat on the basepaths, more so than Jimmy is anymore. When we need to play small-ball and manufacture a few runs, Shane is key. And, along with Jimmy, his defense is irreplaceable. Once again, that's something that cannot be taken for granted on our road to another championship.

Chase Utley - Without Baseball, the offense struggles. We learned that in the first 2 months of the season. With him in the lineup, we have a psychological advantage. He's someone that we can count on to almost always be in the right place at the right time, like in the '08 series when he threw out Jason Bartlett going home to preserve the lead and the championship. While his defense on routine plays has not been his best quality in the playoffs, I still feel like I can rely on Baseball to do amazing things in the field. His composure cannot be replaced by the likes of Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, or Pete Orr. It's a huge drop-off without him in the lineup, and something that we would be unable to overcome in my opinion.

Ryan Howard - I have heard Ryan Howard get a lot of crap this season about his inability to come through in the clutch and how skewed his RBI numbers are due to the amount of opportunities he gets compared to everyone else. But look at this past week. With Howard out of the lineup during the losing streak, our offense was nearly nonexistent. The one game he did start, he had the only RBI. John Mayberry or Ross Gload cannot duplicate the fear he puts in opposing teams, nor can they affect an entire defensive strategy. With men on base, Howard's chances of getting a hit open up drastically due to a decrease in the shift. If I told you he had a better playoff batting average than Rollins, Victorino, and Utley, would you believe me? Well, I don't care. Because he does. His .278 average and .899 OPS are fantastic postseason numbers. While he got a lot of flak in 2009 for not producing in the World Series, his 17 RBI across the entire playoffs were irreplaceable, and we more than likely would not have been there without him. He's a defensive liability for the most part, but his offense should make up for any runs he costs us.

Hunter Pence - I argued not too long ago that he is the Phillies MVP this season and possibly the league MVP. As I have stated before, his impact on this offense cannot be overstated. With no playoff experience, some would worry that he'll freeze up. But Hunter Pence won't. He is way too excited to play baseball. You kind of get the feeling that he's too dumb to know that the games matter more, while at the same time being so hyped up about the playoffs that he might bat .750 and hit 11 home runs. He could end up being MVP of the NLCS and World Series and not even really know it. All he wants to do is play, and he'll play his best no matter what. Without him, we lose some of that energy. We lose the innocence of someone who hasn't been there before and is hungry for each and every game. He brings a fresh perspective to a team that's done it time and time again. You think this team won't appreciate this playoff run? Hunter Pence tells me otherwise. It's certainly an upgrade over anything we might get out of Ben Francisco.

Raul Ibanez - If we lose him, John Mayberry plays and our team gets worse. Except for defensively. Oh, and Mayberry is a better hitter for average. He has more power, too. And he can steal bases. But other than that, we're better off with Raoops. Yeah...

Placido Polanco - I'll say it again: Defense is super important in the playoffs. Polanco provides a consistent glove at 3rd, something that will surely save us a few runs here and there when every run counts. He's a .273 lifetime hitter in the playoffs, something that will absolutely come in handy out of someone who will likely be batting 7th for us. Without Polanco, Martinez or Valdez will play 3rd. While both are respectable replacements, they are definitely a step down on offense and defense. There's no denying that we are a worse team without him, lacking someone who can consistently get us singles at the back of our lineup.

Carlos Ruiz - Choochtober is something we all enjoyed in 2009 when he batted .341 with a 1.082 OPS. While I am excited to see what his .280 playoff batting average produces this year (tops on the team), the real irreplaceable part of Chooch is his work behind the plate. He has started all 41 of our playoff games over the past 3 seasons, and his ability to call games for 3 of the best pitchers in baseball has been invaluable throughout this entire season. He is as reliable as it gets at the catcher's position, and I fear what we would be in the playoffs with Brian Schneider behind the plate instead.

As for the bench, our best players are Ross Gload and John Mayberry, and we really don't want to be missing either one of those guys for the playoff run. They will be great options, depending on the pitcher, for a DH come World Series time (I say this only assuming that we are dumb enough to keep Raoops in the lineup and Mayberry on the bench).

Our starting pitching is going to be the key to our success in the playoffs. If they can pitch at their very best, no one can beat us. If any one of them were to get hurt or anything in the playoffs, it is good to know that we still have 2 guys that can shut down opposing hitters on any night.

Our bullpen is in a unique position going into the playoffs. Madson is our closer, but it feels like he hasn't closed a game in a month. Bastardo is our lefty, but he can't seem to throw a strike lately (other than ones that end up in the seats). Lidge may be our most consistent player out of the 'pen right now, but do any of us feel like he's really that consistent? Blanton, Kendrick, and Worley could all be pretty nice in the mid-to-late innings, depending on who makes the playoff roster. You would think Stutes would, but he hasn't really been all that reliable. While each player seems sort of replaceable, we also have to wonder who would replace them. What is the best bullpen we can put together? I'm not entirely sure, but it's something that will hopefully click once the postseason actually starts.

The bottom line is, a healthy Phillies team should have no team truly threaten them. The pieces are all in place, they just need to make sure they are all fitting together at the right time.

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