NLDS Game 4 Preview

The Phillies currently lead the best-of-5 series 2 games to 1.

Was this the plan?

Game 1: Roy Halladay gets rocked in the first inning. He then proceeds to retire 21 straight batters while our offense can't be stopped. Then, the bullpen does its best to blow an 8-run lead in the 9th, but we get out of it without any real worries and take home an 11-6 win

Game 2: We jump out to a 4-0 lead with Cliff Lee on the mound. Game over, right? Well, the Cardinals put together a series of horrible and fake hits to take a 5-4 lead. Cliff ends up with the loss after pitching just 6 innings and giving up all 5 runs on 12 hits. With that 5-4 loss, we lose home-field advantage and need to travel to St. Louis, one of the best baseball cities in America, to get at least one game back and avoid elimination.

Game 3: Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels flirts with 90 pitches while Jaime Garcia, someone who has historically killed us, throws just 51. We start to get to Garcia a little in the 6th, and Ben Francisco comes in in the 7th to hit a pinch-hit 3-run home run to give us a 3-0 lead. We find out that he apparently has a nickname that is unrelated to his resemblance to a camel, and it's actually a really sweet one. Benny Fresh is compared to Matt Stairs, and meanwhile the Cardinals are getting 4 hits out of Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot but are largely unable to turn them into anything. After 2 runs out of the bullpen and 5 outs out of Ryan Madson, the Phils get the win they need to take a 2-1 series lead.

Is this what we were looking for? Not at all. Last year's NLDS included a no-hitter by Halladay, a shutout by Hamels, and a 3-0 series sweep. This year was supposed to be much of the same. After all, our team is better than last year, aren't they?

Yes, our team is better than last year, and, if for no other reason, it's because we know how to win ugly. We lost last year because we just didn't win. That's an obvious statement, but it makes more sense when looked at in relation to this team. We just win. We are just winning games. Not the way we're supposed to win them. I know it's only 2 wins right now, but you can already see that this team NEEDS to win. As I said before the playoffs, it's a perfect mixture of talent, "This-Might-Be-Our-Last-Chance" desire, and "HolyCrapThisIsAwesomeLetsPlayReallyHardJustSoWeCanKeepPlaying" Hunter Pence attitude. That combination is not going to settle for anything less than a World Series. If someone needs to step up, they'll step up. Benny Fresh comes to mind.

That brings us to tonight's game. What have we gotten out of Oswalt this season? Not a whole lot. I expect a solid outing - maybe 6 or 7 innings giving up 3 runs or so. But what I expect means nothing thus far, so I'm gonna go with a completely dominant performance by him. This game is all ours. But I don't recommend expecting that...this team doesn't like for us to know what's coming.

Game 4 Preview:

Phillies pitcher: Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA)
Oswalt has had quite the crazy season. Coming in, he was our 3rd starter and had just come off of a dominating run with the Phils at the end of last season that extended into the playoffs. Injuries and natural disasters threw things off for him a little bit, but that doesn't mean he doesn't still have it in him to go out and shut down opposing batters.
Somehow, he has managed to make 3 starts against the Cardinals this season, more than any of our other starters. One was pretty average, 1 was pretty bad, and 1 was pretty awesome. That gives him a 1-1 record with a 3.21 ERA against the Cards this year.
His "pretty average" start came in mid-May, when he pitched well but lasted only 5 innings. Yadier Molina drove in St. Louis' only run off of him, and we were able to tie the game up before eventually losing to give Roy a no-decision.
His "pretty bad" start came at the end of June. He lasted just 2 innings and gave up 4 runs before leaving with back problems. This was the last start he had before spending over a month on the disabled list (still a hilarious term to me when I actually think about it...disabled list. HA!). It's tough to hold that against him because he was clearly not healthy and ready to go for that game. He gave up a home run to Jon Jay in the first inning, and a series of singles allowed the Cardinals to score a few more in the 2nd. Jay is actually one of the worst hitters against Oswalt with just a .250 batting average, but he does have that home run. The rest of the Cardinals roster is kind of scary to look at. They hit a collective .296 against him with plenty of at bats, mostly because he spent so much time in the NL Central with Houston. Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot, last night's stars for the Cardinals, both bat over .300 against him in a combined 118 at bats. Pujols has 5 home runs to add to that. Rafael Furcal is a .350 hitter in 20 at bats, and Yadier Molina has a .333 average against Oswalt in 24 at bats.
As I kind of said, there aren't too many hitters who struggle all that much against Roy Oswalt historically. Allen Craig bats .200, Jay .250, and Skip Schumaker hits just .261 (which isn't even that bad). So what did he do in his "pretty good" start against them to get the win this season? Well, he pitched 7 shutout innings and gave up only 5 hits. He held Pujols hitless and struck out 7 while walking no one, so it is clear that he is capable of having his way with this lineup.
In the postseason, Oswalt is 5-1 in his career with a 3.39 ERA. It's a pretty average ERA, but the 5-1 record suggests that he may be just the pitcher the Phillies are in need of right now. He wins, and that's it. He's allowed 90 base runners in 66.1 postseason innings, but he just gets wins. That's all we need right now - a win. If Oswalt is the guy to get it for us, then he's the guy to get it for us. He may pitch a shutout. He also might pitch 4 innings and give up 5 runs. Either way, someone is going to step up and get the win tonight, whether it be Oswalt, Benny Fresh, or even Raoops Suckhole (but really...it won't be him).

Cardinals pitcher: Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)
If you want to know about Edwin Jackson, just take a look in your grocer's freezer at a hot new ice cream flavor known as "vanilla."
You can put sprinkles and syrup and whipped cream and cherries all over vanilla ice cream to convince yourself it's better just because it has something else covering it, but it's still vanilla ice cream.
Edwin Jackson is much the same. He's been traded 28 times in the past 3 seasons if I remember correctly, but, no matter how much you dress him up with a new uniform in a new city, he's still suuuper average. Seriously, though, the Cardinals are his 6th team since 2008 (if you include his trade to Toronto this season so he could get traded to St. Louis, which I do). He's 60-60 in his career with a 4.46 ERA. He threw a no-hitter last year, only no one cared because he walked 8 batters. I don't even care enough to mention what any Phillies player has done against him in their careers. That's partially because we don't have a ton of experience against him (if Jimmy Rollins has 0 at bats, no one should have any), but it's also partially because there's really only one thing worth mentioning about him...
Edwin Jackson has very limited playoff numbers. He pitched only in 2008. He did well against the Red Sox in the ALCS, then he appeared in one game in the World Series (ya know, the one that we WON?!). That game? Game 4. What did he do? Pitched 2 pretty insignificant innings and gave up a meaningless run. Only the run wasn't all that meaningless, because it was a home run. And it was hit by Joe Blanton.

Prediction: Phillies 5 Cardinals 1

Keep an eye out for: Edwin Jackson. Seriously, look for him. He has a tendency to blend in with all of his surroundings and go completely unnoticed in life.