NLDS Game 3 Preview

The best-of-5 series is currently tied 1-1.

Game 2 was depressing. There's no denying that.

Perhaps the Eagles game felt a little different listening to it on the internet down here in VA, because I was nowhere near as upset as all of southeastern Pennsylvania seemingly was via Facebook and Twitter. As the Birds built up a huge lead and then slowly but surely let it slip away, I took solace in the fact that the Steelers were still managing to suck. The NFL isn't really my thing anyway.

Then came the tweets and status updates consisting of the tri-state area expressing more interest in leaping off of the Ben Franklin Bridge or stepping down off that ledge just to lay down in traffic than stick around long enough to see what the Phillies had in store. I had no idea that this loss hurt so bad. What was the big deal? We still had the Phils to look forward to, not dread!

Then, something horrible happened. My apathy towards Philadelphia football turned into a way too similar Philadelphia baseball experience. I love blaming myself for losses, and I've got all kinds of reasons that this one is on me:
1) I didn't give a crap about the Eagles losing, so the Phillies had to lose in much the same way so I could experience the pain of everyone else from my home state (yes, everyone else. I'm from Pennsylvania. If you weren't upset by football AND baseball yesterday, you're probably from the state of West Pennsylvania).
2) I predicted a loss. I like to stay true to what I think, and I'd probably predict the same thing if I had to do it again. But that doesn't mean it wasn't in all of the players' heads going into the game after reading the blog.
3) I didn't wear any Phillies gear. It was a pretty lazy Sunday for me, and I failed to put on my Chase Utley jersey until after we were already losing. Idiot.
4) I bought a case of PBR before the game on Saturday and decided I was only going to drink it during games. While I didn't drink it any other time, I also didn't drink it during the game. My bad, guys.
5) I didn't force my friend Dave to come over and watch after he was here on Saturday night.
6) I tried to act like superstitions don't matter.

The Phils losing takes a huge mental and emotional toll on me in these ways. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to fall asleep after single-handedly losing a Phillies playoff game? Well, it's pretty tough (although, admittedly, not so tough the following afternoon when you have a butt ton of other stuff to be doing instead of passing out).

The reality we all need to face, though, is that this game was essentially no one's fault. We were (and are) the better team. The Cardinals had an abundance of what I like to call Bull's Hits. What does that mean? Well, one of the newer statistics that has been kicked around over the past couple years is something called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. A normal BABIP is around .300. The Phillies' BABIP last night was, if my calculations are correct, .240. That could suggest that we weren't hitting the ball very hard, so we can take some heat for that. The Cardinals, however, had a BABIP of.464. Thirteen of their 27 balls that were hit in play dropped in for hits. And we saw them all drop in crappy spots: ground balls between shortstop and third, bloops singles into short right field, and liners that went just a couple feet over the infielders and in front of the outfielders. While we can expect those hits to drop in about 30% of the time (a .300 BABIP), the almost 50% that the Cardinals experienced is mostly due to luck, not skill. That's where I get the name Bull's Hits. Take out the apostrophe and push those words together, and you see what most of the hits truly were (I'll let you figure it out in hopes of keeping this blog pretty PG).

Yes, it is extremely frustrating to blow a 4-0 lead. I'm not excusing the Phillies blowing that lead, because they ultimately did, but I am saying that a lot of it was a freak accident. They weren't necessarily the better team, but they certainly were the luckier team. If the game plays out the way a normal baseball game should, we hold onto that 4-0 lead. Much like I said yesterday, a loss is still a loss, but it can at least put our minds at ease a little.

Before getting to the preview, I want to quickly say that Tony LaRussa is a total douche.

Game 3 Preview:

Phillies pitcher: Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA)
Cole Hamels has somehow been slightly forgotten in the Phillies rotation with the beginning of the postseason. He didn't have the greatest end to the season, going 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in September. That's way more fresh in our minds than his 11-4, 2.32 ERA first half of the season. His awful 2009 postseason seems to have erased the memory of 2008 and overshadowed his limited work in 2010. None of that, however, means that he's not ready to be great.
He had just one start against the Cardinals this season, and it was just a few weeks ago during our 8-game losing streak. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs and 2 home runs while getting the loss. He did, however, strike out 9 and not walk anyone in the game. He also only threw 91 pitches in the 7 innings of work. The 5-0 loss was dominated by Allen Craig, who went 3 for 4 with 2 homers (one off Hamels), a double, and 3 RBI. Albert Pujols accounted for the other 2 runs with a home run of his own.
In his career against this Cardinals roster, Hamels has allowed them to hit an inflated .270. He's also surrendered 4 home runs, including the ones from Craig and Pujols, as well as another from Pujols and one from Ryan Theriot. Theriot, Craig, and Lance Berkman all have .333 batting averages against him.
Pujols and Rafael Furcal are the hitters that he's managed to shut down the best over the years, allowing them to hit just .174 and .200, respectively, in a combined 33 at bats.
Hamels' career playoff numbers seem to tell 2 different stories. Combined, he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA. If you split that up, though, he is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 2007 and 2009, and he is 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in '08 and 2010. While these numbers might suggest that 2011, being an odd year, will be a down year for him, I call malarkey. I think that we see the good postseason Hamels this year, feeling like he has something to prove in these playoffs.

Cardinals pitcher: Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
Jaime Garcia has, for the past 2 seasons, been the most dreaded of pitchers for the Phillies to face. He fits into that classic mold that has killed us for years now. He's young, he's a lefty, and we don't have a lot of experience against him. Those things, though, should not be as big of a concern as they have been in the past.
Garcia somehow escaped getting a win against the Phillies this season despite having incredible numbers against us. In 2 starts, he threw 15 innings, allowed just 13 base runners, and only gave up 1 earned run to give himself a 0.60 ERA against us.
The Phillies batters who have given him the most trouble are John Mayberry and Hunter Pence. Mayberry is 3 for 6 with a double and an RBI, and Pence's .200 batting average is made up for by the fact that his 3 hits are a double, a triple, and a home run. For a roster with a .202 average against him, it's tough to find something really great.
As for who struggles, that would be essentially everyone else. Rollins .091; Utley 0-for-6; Howard .167; Victorino .222; Ibanez 1-for-3; Polanco .182; Ruiz 0-for-3. We are so bad against him that I almost had to say that Suckhole is one of our best hitters against him. Due to limited at bats though, I am going to avoid that. Along with that, it seems pretty clear to me that Mayberry should be starting this game. All biases aside, a look at Mayberry's numbers, along with what he can create on the base paths and his ability to consistently hit for extra bases, will tell really anyone with any sense that he should be getting an opportunity to start this game. Anyone with any sense, though, doesn't always include Charlie Manuel.
Looking at all of the statistics that I've given here, it's easy to be discouraged by this matchup. So why am I not? Well, like I said, Garcia has been a young lefty that we hadn't seen very often in the past. Now, we've seen him a few times. Now, we have an extra righty (possibly 2 *fingers crossed*) in our lineup with Hunter Pence. With every new pitcher we see, we get to a point where we either start really getting to them, or we let them dominate us forever. Is Jaime Garcia really worthy of being a pitcher that we let dominate us forever? He's pitching 3rd on a team who started Kyle Lohse in Game 1 and had to trade for Edwin "Extra Medium" Jackson during the season to sure up their starting rotation. For this Phillies team, it feels like it's now or never with Garcia, and I think the time is now.

Prediction: Phillies 6 Cardinals 0

Keep an eye out for: Garcia being driven out of the game early as he struggles to handle the pressure of a playoff atmosphere in St. Louis. Garcia is making his first playoff appearance, and I think the only thing tougher than him pitching in Philadelphia could very well be him pitching at home in St. Louis. It's a great baseball city with high expectations, and that pressure might be more difficult than the hostile Philly fans. Hamels' experience will carry him to the shut-down outing we've been waiting for (for 2 whole games!) from a starter.