NLDS Game 1 Preview

As we move through the playoffs, I can't give you a good preview of an entire series. It's very different from the regular season...not knowing who is going to pitch, how people are going to play in the pressure of the playoffs, or how many games there will be. Because of this, you can look forward to a preview for every game.

Yes, I'm actually going to try to preview every. Single. Game. You think I can't do it? Well, you may be right. But I may be crazy. (...but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.)

Hopefully with each one, I can do a recap of the game before and an overall look at how the series is going. Knowing that that will be tough, my main focus will be just to get you information about the upcoming game.

I gave some of my opinion on this series in the Playoff Male Bag, and it's really tough to look at a playoff series as a whole. I don't think we sweep the series, and the Game 4 pitching matchup is not available yet, so it's hard to tell. Originally, I had heard that Jaime Garcia was starting for the Cardinals in Game 1, but it's since been changed to Kyle Lohse. Things are too unpredictable in that way to look at everything at once. I do have a few stats from the season series that I'll share, but things are totally different in the postseason. So, here's our season series at a glance as well as a preview of today's game

Series result: Cardinals won 6-3

Starting pitching:
Cardinals 62.2 IP, 51 H, 11 R, 8 ER, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 1.15 ERA
Phillies 56.1 IP, 52 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 17 BB, 43 K, 4 HR, 2.88 ERA

Relief pitching:
Cardinals 19.1 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 19 ER, 10 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, 8.84 ERA
Phillies 24 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 15 BB, 14 K, 3 HR, 6.00 ERA

Phillies individual stats, the good news:
Cliff Lee: 2 starts, 15.1 innings, 12 hits, 3 ER, 7 Ks, 1.76 ERA; 1 shutout
Vance Worley: 6 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 1.50 ERA
Ryan Madson: 2 innings, 0 runs, 1 K, 0.00 ERA
Chase Utley: 9-for-28, 3 runs, 3 RBI, .321 AVG
Jimmy Rollins: 11-for-39, 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, .282 AVG
Carlos Ruiz: 8-for-24, 4 runs, 3 RBI, 2B, HR, .333 AVG

Phillies individual stats, the bad news:
Cole Hamels: 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 HR, 5.14 ERA
Michael Stutes: 2.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 Ks, 11.57 ERA
Ryan Howard: 4-for-18, 7 Ks, .222 AVG
Raul Ibanez: 2-for-24, 6 Ks, .083 AVG, .328 OPS
*******************************************************************************

Game 1 Preview:

Cardinals pitcher: Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA)
I hate Kyle Lohse. He helped us out in getting to the playoffs in 2007, then decided he deserved more money than we would give him and left. Then we won the World Series. So screw him.
This season, we faced Lohse twice, and he went 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA against us. That pretty much sums up our season series with the Cardinals...a pitcher with a great ERA and no winning record. Howard and Rollins both had a home run off of him in the game that we won. In the game that we lost, Howard didn't play and we only managed 1 unearned run off of Lohse.
In terms of career numbers in the playoffs, he is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA doesn't seem bad, but it really doesn't cut it in the playoffs. Games often end with scores like 3-2 or 2-0, and a 3.38 ERA suggests he's giving up 3 runs in 8 innings. A lot of times, that will be enough for the opposing team to run with and win. He's only ever started 1 game in the postseason, and he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and got the loss.
In terms of career numbers against our players, Lohse should be most worried about Howard, Pence, and Polanco. Howard is a .500 hitter against him in 16 at bats with 2 homers and 8 RBI. Hunter Pence, although he has never homered off of Lohse, has seen him the most and has a .317 average against him in 41 at bats. Polanco hits .375 when Lohse is on the mound, although he has no extra-base hits (classic Polanco).
Lohse has been able to shut down Utley, Victorino, and Rollins, though, holding them to batting averages of .167, .208, and .185, respectively. It seems that we don't necessarily have trouble getting hits off of him (7 in each of his starts this year; a .278 average against him with our current roster), but we just need to get runs off of him. It seems he's been strangely good at getting us out once we have people on base. Why do I say "strangely good?" Because he's not actually good, that's why.
As I mentioned in the preview of our June series with the Cardinals, the most annoying part of Kyle Lohse is not how weirdly good he is or how he left the Phillies. It's how he pronounces his last name. I hate facing him just because of how wrong he is on the pronunciation of an odd grouping of 5 letters.

Phillies pitcher: Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA)
Roy Halladay is not mortal. Giving him the ball in our first playoff game has an incredibly comfortable and confident feel to it. Do we trust anyone more than Roy Halladay? Not just on the Phillies roster, but, like, anyone in the world? I don't even trust my wife as much as I trust Roy Halladay (true, that is mostly because I don't have a wife. But you get the point).
Halladay has horrible Halladay numbers against the Cardinals this season. In 2 starts, he's compiled a 3.21 ERA. A 3.21 ERA! Can you believe that crap?! He's 0-1 in those starts and has allowed an offensive 16 base runners in 14 innings. While this description is clearly dripping with sarcasm, it is kind of odd that he has pitched twice against the Cardinals and not managed a win. So who gives him so much trouble?
Well, the Cards' playoff roster has a .234 career average against Halladay. Lance Berkman is 2-for-5 with a home run, Skip Schumaker is 3-for-8, and Rafael Furcal is 3-for-9 with double against him. So no one really dominates Halladay, and, if they have, it's been in very limited at bats. Albert Pujols, who is obviously the biggest worry going into the series, is just 2 for 11 with a double against Doc in his career. Matt Holliday, another big bat in their lineup, is only 1 for 6. He is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury, so we will see how much action he sees in this series. (Hopefully he doesn't play in Game 1, if for no other reason than avoiding the confusion of Halladay-Holliday matchups.) All of this just tells me that the Cardinals "success" against Roy is kind of an accident, or mostly just due to timely hitting.
Can we figure that Halladay will step up in the playoffs and avoid giving up any awkward or accidental runs? Well, there was that no-hitter thing that he threw to open up the playoffs last season, so I guess we can somewhat expect him to step it up. Last year, in his first playoff run, he pitched 3 games, 22 innings, and struck out 20 guys while going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Those numbers are solid. Some may think they are skewed by the no-hitter, but those people just have to remember one thing: He threw a no-hitter. That means he's good. I expect big things out of Roy. He is always putting the Phillies in the best position to win, so we just need to take advantage of that.

Prediction: Phillies 3 Cardinals 0

Keep an eye out for: Ryan Howard making up for what he didn't do in the regular season by getting a few hits, including a home run. I'm also feeling a nice 7 innings out of Roy, a Lidge-Bastardo combo 8th inning, and a nice 1-2-3 9th by Ryan Madson.