Sorry, I didn't reread or edit this. Just barely got it off in time.
If you haven't yet, take a second to respond to some of the questions from the previous post. Also, contact me with some questions in time for a playoff Male Bag. PhilsHighHopes@gmail.com, Twitter @PhilsHighHopes
In the upcoming Bizarro Male Bag (this weekend probably...great responses thus far), we'll see what you guys think about who is the Phillies phavorite to win the Cy Young - Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. In this post, though, I'll really just give you my own opinion anyway (although it'll be short because I only have about 40 minutes until game time. Yikes).
Halladay has been a portrait of consistency this season. His ERA in each month has been no higher than 3.00 and no lower than 2.00. He has a winning record in each month and has been nothing but reliable. If we need a solid start, we know we'll get one from Roy.
Lee, on the other hand, has been a completely different pitcher depending on the month. In April, May, and July, Lee is 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA and a WHIP of 1.28. In June, August, and September, though, Lee is 11-0 with a 0.30 ERA and a WHIP of 0.72. The comparison is unbelievable, and you'd think that consistency over the season would show that a pitcher is actually better rather than the tale of two pitchers that Cliff has been this year.
The reality, though, is that these awards often come down to who is doing what at the right time. Look at the 2008 MVP race. Ryan Howard only batted .251 that season. His 48 homers and 146 RBI are great, but that average should have brought him down significantly. He still managed to finish 2nd in MVP, though, because he batted .352 in September.
Lee is doing much of the same this year, only he started in August. Not that Halladay isn't getting the job done, but he isn't putting up crazy Cliff Lee numbers. I think if the voting occurred today, Lee's dominance will be fresh in peoples' minds, and he would take the award over Halladay (all of this assuming that Clayton Kershaw doesn't win). If you look at the middle two games of the series, though, they could go a long way in helping to figure out who the winner would be between the two of them. Whichever one throws a shutout in this series will find himself in the Cy Young driver's seat (because, let's face it, one of them will).
(I am really really short on time, so I am just going to give you a rundown of some stats for each starting pitcher rather than actually explaining anything. You'll probably enjoy that more anyway)
Game 1: Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.63 ERA) vs. Chris Narveson (10-6, 4.26 ERA)
Narveson is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 career starts against the Phillies. Pence is 3 for 8 with a double in his career, and Victorino is 3 for 6 with a home run.
Hamels is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 8 career starts against the Brewers. Prince Fielder is 7 for 22 against him with 2 homers, but he has held Ryan Braun to a .235 batting average in his career against him.
Prediction: Phillies 4 Brewers 1
Keep an eye out for: Pence setting the tone against a former NL Central foe.
Game 2: Roy Halladay (16-5, 2.49 ERA) vs. Shaun Marcum (12-5, 3.11 ERA)
Marcum is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA against the Phillies in 4 career starts. Polanco is a career .556 hitter against him, and Utley is 3 for 7 with a home run.
Halladay is 1-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 3 career starts against Milwaukee. Prince Fielder is 6 for 10 with 3 extra base hits against him, and Yuniesky Betancourt is a .333 hitter against Roy.
Prediction: Phillies 3 Brewers 2
Keep an eye out for: former teammates Halladay and Marcum putting on a show as they each go 8 innings.
Game 3: Cliff Lee (16-7, 2.47 ERA) vs. Randy Wolf (12-9, 3.47 ERA)
Wolf is 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA against the Phillies in 6 career starts. Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco have had the most success against him, batting .556 and .417, respectively.
Lee is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 starts against the Brewers. Prince Fielder has also hit Lee around, going 5 for 6 with a double, a home run, and 6 RBI.
Prediction: Phillies 7 Brewers 0
Keep an eye out for: Lee staying hot with Cy Young scouts on hand (No. Those don't really exist)
Game 4: Vance Worley (11-1, 2.85 ERA) vs. Yovani Gallardo (15-10, 3.71 ERA)
In his only start against the Phillies, Gallardo got a win and compiled a 1.35 ERA in 6.2 innings.
Worley has never faced the Brewers, but, judging by our other pitchers, I have a feeling Prince Fielder has hit a home run off of him
Prediction: Brewers 5 Phillies 2
Keep an eye out for: Worley losing. Although we've only seen it once, it's bound to happen again, right? We have to lose at least one of these games, right? We're not good enough to sweep the Brewers, are we? ARE WE?! (No, probably not)
A few things worth pointing out about this series:
1) I'm still amazed at our starting rotation. Look at those numbers! All with ERA's under 3, 2 guys trying their hardest to get to 20 wins, and 1 battling for NL Rookie of the Year
2) I predicted back in April that this series would scare the crap out of me if it actually meant something. Luckily, it doesn't really.
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