A series with the Astros as of late always brings back tons of memories for Phillies and Astros players alike. Why? Because half of them probably don't really know what uniform to put on or which dugout to go in. If we look at the matchups for this upcoming series, you'll see that Roy Oswalt will be pitching against his former team and facing Brett Myers pitching against his former teams. We will, most likely, see Brad Lidge pitch against his former team at some point. In game 3, J.A. Happ will be pitching against the Phils (his former team), and the game 2 starter for the Astros has yet to be announced, probably because they are going to sign Curt Schilling or call up Jarred Cosart just so they can have someone else pitching against, yes, you guessed it, their former team.
Aside from starting pitching, the biggest name that stands out in the series is Hunter Pence. He'll be playing against the Astros for the first time since we traded for him at the end of July. Since his arrival, he's been a vital part of the Phillies' success, and the Astros have continued to struggle to win a game, not to mention a series. The people of Philadelphia have embraced him as one of their own, and all of our worries about this team seemed to disappear with his bat in the lineup.
Seriously, think about the Phillies pre-Pence. It felt like as every series passed, we would hear more and more complaints and concerns about how the heck we were ever going to score another run. While we had the best record in baseball, it just wasn't all that satisfying or convincing. Then we got Hunter Pence.
As the MVP race in the NL starts to heat up and get more attention, it would be tough to call Pence an MVP candidate, at least to the untrained eye. He spent over half the year playing for the Astros, and the Phillies, as I said, were in first place without him. With him, we are still in first place. The numbers go a little deeper than just the standings, though, and I think he deserves serious consideration for the National League's top individual honor. Will he get it? No. Should he? You be the judge...
Since he came to the Phillies, we're scoring over 5.2 runs per game, up almost an entire run from our numbers before he came around. We have scored 3 or more runs in 35 of his 38 games, and we have not gotten shut out at all while he's been a Philly. Pence is batting .320 in those 38 games with 8 home runs and 24 RBI. Over a full season, those numbers translate to about 34 homers and 102 RBI. Couple that with the .320 batting average and a .994 OPS (which would be tops in the NL), and would you consider those MVP numbers for a first place team? I think so.
But, like I said, we were in first without him, so what's the big deal? Well, we are 28-10 with him in the lineup. That's a .737 winning percentage. Without him, it was .629. That's a significant increase, showing that he truly has helped to make our team better since his arrival.
And that's just in terms of the numbers. It's tough to define the value of every Phillies' fan being much more at ease with each game and series. We don't have to worry about where our next run is going to come from. With Pence on the team, we've had several players out with injuries, and we still haven't skipped a beat. Our only 2 series losses have come against the Marlins and Nationals - teams that don't matter. Our record against teams in first and second place since his arrival is 11-3 with 4 series wins, including these last 2 series in which we swept the Braves and took 3 of 4 in Milwaukee, the toughest place for opposing teams to win a game this season. Has our team gotten better than being in first place? Obviously, we couldn't. Have we gotten better, though? Yes, we absolutely have.
The season will end, and Pence will go unrecognized in terms of awards. The MVP will go to Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder or Matt Kemp or someone other than Hunter Pence. All he'll be playing for is all he really cares about - the team. And with him on this team, we're now clearly in the driver's seat to win our second World Series in 4 seasons. We have the pitching, the defense, and now the offense to do it. Along with that, the city has the confidence that we will. They also have a very good reason for that confidence. The reason is Hunter Pence. What's more valuable than that?
Game 1: Roy Oswalt (7-8, 3.72 ERA) vs. Brett Myers (4-13, 4.66 ERA)
Hopefully I didn't jinx the Phillies by talking about not getting shut out since Pence's arrival. Myers has pitched well in 2 starts against the Phils, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He's held our current roster to a .196 batting average and just 3 home runs - 1 from Chooch, 1 from Brian Schneider, and 1 from John Bowker (who I saw play yesterday for the first time. There goes that goal). He's kept our biggest bats pretty silent aside from a .429 average for J-Roll, although that's only in 7 at bats. Oswalt's only career start against the Astros came in the third game of this season. The Astros now have maybe 2-3 guys that you might have heard of in their lineup prior to this season. Batting 3rd for them? J.D. Martinez. They also have the likes of Brian Bogusevic and Jimmy Paredes playing for them. Rumor has it, these are real people. I guess we'll find out tonight.
Prediction: Phillies 3 Astros 1
Keep an eye out for: Oswalt pitching at least 7 strong innings as he pitches for a spot in the playoff rotation.
Game 2: Cole Hamels (14-7, 2.60 ERA) vs. TBD (0-0, -.-- ERA)
With MLB.com not having a starter listed for this game, I obviously can't speak to the Astros pitcher very well, but I can once again point out that they barely have a lineup. Hamels has faced Carlos Lee 20 times in his career, giving up 2 home runs to him. That is the biggest threat he will be facing in this game...an overweight 35 year old. He will also be facing people with names like Humberto Quintero and Angel Sanchez. You know, assuming those are real guys.
Prediction: Phillies 7 Astros 0
Keep an eye out for: Hunter Pence hitting home run number 20 on the season as a Phillies player playing in Houston. His first home run of the year was hit as an Astros player playing in Philadelphia. That home run will just be absolutely soaked with irony.
Game 3: Roy Halladay (17-5, 2.44 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (5-15, 5.77 ERA)
Getting rid of J.A. Happ turned out to be a genius move. He's one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. We'll get tons of hits off of him, and you know who won't get hits off of Roy Halladay? Guys like Jason Bourgeois, Matt Downs, Chris Johnson, J.R. Towles, and Jose Altuve. Real people? Stay tuned.
Prediction: Phillies 9 Astros 1
Keep an eye out for: someone named J.B. Shuck being responsible for the only run the Astros score in this game. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 Houston Astros!
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