Marlins Preview

We have a unique series coming up with the Marlins over the next 3 days. Not only will we be playing 4 games in 3 days, but 3 of those games will occur over the course of about 27 hours. It sounds crazy, and that's mostly because it is.

So what could this possibly mean for the series? Starters, starters, and more starters. If the pressure is on anyone in this series, it will be the starting pitchers. Conserving bullpens will be key between now and this time on Thursday in order for one team to come out on top. Who does all of this favor? Us!

Not only do we have a rotation full of guys who can go the distance if we need them to, but we come in at quite an advantage in terms of bullpen use recently. The Marlins' starter lasted only 3 innings in yesterday's 12-9 loss to the Diamondbags. Combine that with a 5-1 loss on Sunday, and they come into this series having used 7 different relievers to pitch 10 innings over the past 2 days. With the Phils coming off of an off-day, this puts us in a much better position.

In the 5 games we have played thus far with the Marlins, our starters have averaged just over 6 innings per outing. Their starters have averaged just under 6 innings per outing. Not a big difference when you look at it as a generalization like that; therefore, rather than hit you with some big long intro to this preview, let's get right into the specifics.

Game 1: Chris Volstad (2-6, 5.51 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (8-2, 2.58 ERA)
There are way too many things I can say about Chris Volstad and who has had success against him over the years. Rather than break down individual players, here are our current roster's stats against him:
57 for 156 (.365 AVG), 7 2B, 12 HR, 26 RBI, 17 BB, 16 K, 1.107 OPS
I know I just said it, but let me please remind you that those are our team stats against him. That's everyone combined. That tells me that the Marlins should not be able to keep him in the game for very long. And that comes against Cole Hamels, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball (4-0, 1.70 ERA in his last 5 starts). Along with that, Hamels has been able to pitch 8 innings in each of his past 2 starts. I don't see this one working out too well for the Marlins.
Prediction: Phillies 10 Marlins 2
Keep an eye out for: Howard homering off of Volstad. The longer they keep him in, the more home runs. He is a .478 hitter against Volstad in his career with 6 homers in 23 at bats.

Game 2: TBA (0-0, -.-- ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (3-4, 3.47 ERA)
The good news: Kendrick has a 0.00 ERA in one game against the Marlins this season. The whatever news: That was a 1-inning relief appearance.
As I've said before, we can figure out what Kendrick will do after the first inning of any game he pitches. If he gets through it without giving up a run, we can get 6 or 7 out of him with 2 runs or less. If he gives up a run, he'll be out by the 5th having given up 6 runs or so. With the Marlins not announcing a starter, I am worried about what may be looming for the Phils. I am sure they will call up their Asian phenom Sum Yung Gai*, and he will shut us down because of our lack of experience against him. Kendrick is getting put in a tough spot here, and I almost feel like it is going to be a loss for him no matter what he does.
Prediction: Marlins 6 Phillies 0
Keep an eye out for: the Phils failing to get a hit until the 5th inning after doing so well the night before
*Sum Yung Gai is not a real person. Reread the name. We just aren't that great against young pitchers we don't have a lot of experience against, and this is what I assume they will throw at us. Pun intended.

Game 3: Anibal Sanchez (6-1, 3.06 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (9-3, 2.39 ERA)
I doubt there are many pitchers in the league that the Marlins would rather NOT see. That more than likely applies to every team, but the Marlins should be especially depressed about a matchup with Roy Halladay. Since joining the Phils, Roy's numbers in 6 starts against the Marlins are as follows:
46 IP, 34 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 50 K
The silver lining for Florida? We have a bad habit of not giving him much run support against them, giving him just a 4-2 record in those games despite his 1.57 ERA. Unfortunately for them, we have a few guys with some great career numbers against Sanchez. Polanco is a .538 hitter with 2 home runs in just 13 at bats, Rollins is hitting .333 against him, Utley .440, and Howard .318. Good numbers against Marlins pitching is generally no accident because we see them so often.
Prediction: Phillies 7 Marlins 0
Keep an eye out for: Halladay's 5th complete game but first shutout of the season

Game 4: Javier Vazquez (3-6, 7.09 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (6-5, 3.41 ERA)
Lee was pretty mediocre in his only start agaisnt the Marlins this season, pitching 6 and giving up 3 runs while striking out just 4. I expect much more out of him this time, especially if there is any type of pressure on him to pitch deep into the game due to a lack of bullpen availability. Cliff always seems to rise to the big moments. Javier Vazquez is probably dreading this start, seeing as his ERA is 7.09 this season and it is even worse just against the Phillies (7.71). And those appearances were without Utley in the lineup. At this point in the series, things could get ugly if we see as much bullpen from the Marlins as I anticipate. But I don't want to get too greedy, so I'll keep my prediction modest.
Prediction: Phillies 5 Marlins 2
Keep an eye out for: more Howard home runs. He could feasibly hit 4-5 homers in this series. Combined against these 3 starters, Howard is a .391 hitter with 11 homers, 15 RBI, a .506 on-base percentage, and a .984 slugging percentage. For a point of reference: .400 is a great on-base percentage, and the current runaway leader in slugging percentage in the MLB is at .701.