Interleague Update

This post is going to serve as both a recap of what already has happened in our interleague games as well as a preview of the upcoming series with the Red Sox.

What's the worst that could happen?

I would encourage us to keep that question in mind during this upcoming series with the Red Sox. I'm not saying that because I have a negative attitude about it. Don't mistake the theme of this post as negative. I think it's just realistic.

So far, we have played against only AL West teams in interleague play. Generally, they have weak offenses and unspectacular pitching. The Red Sox do not fall into either of those categories at all. They have a very dangerous offense with a starting rotation that, when healthy, is potentially as good as ours. Yes, I mean that.

So let's look at what we can expect from the series. Thus far, the Phils have been just about as good as, probably better than, expected against the American League. Our starters have compiled a 1.84 ERA against them. Fantastic. The bullpen? A 1.76 ERA. We've given up just 65 hits in the 79 innings pitched with just 3 home runs allowed. The staff is holding those opponents to somewhere around a .215 batting average. This is all good news, right? Well...

Our record against the AL is 5-4. That's a winning record! Yay! But it's really not that great if you look at those pitching numbers. We should be probably somewhere around 7-2 at worst with statistics like those. But AL pitchers have a 1.97 ERA against us, holding our hitters to a batting average that is somewhere around .194. We've had just 84 base runners in 77.2 innings. We can't score runs. We can't do it against anyone this season in general, but we seem to definitely not be too into hitting against the American League. Shane Victorino is batting .317 in interleague play, but everyone else is pretty much nowhere close to that. And he missed the series with the Rangers. Obviously, our pitching has kept us alive. This last series, there were a total of 10 runs scored for BOTH teams in 3 games. Ugh. I would hate to have been at the game Friday night. (Oh wait. I was. And I think I slept through 7 innings)

Will this fly against the Red Sox? NO! They are 1st in the MLB in batting average, 1st in runs scored, 1st in on-base percentage, and 2nd in slugging percentage. This is why I'm worried about this series. This is why we need to constantly ask ourselves, "What's the worst that could happen?" Right now, we sit at 5 games up in the NL East and even 2.5 games up in the MLB. So what if we get swept? Not saying we will or we should, but what if we do? We're (at worst) 2 games up in our division still. And that's all that matters. Injuries aside (knock on wood), the worst thing that could happen in the next 3 days is not all that bad.

So when we get no-hit in 2 of these 3 games and only score 2 runs total in 27 innings, it'll be OK. When Cliff Lee snaps his scoreless inning streak by giving up 6 runs tomorrow, we can still sleep at night. When John Lackey, who totally sucks this year, shuts us down while Vance Worley flounders against a high-powered Red Sox offense, we will still survive to see Thursday. And when Cole Hamels pitches a no-hitter and we end up losing in extra innings, life will go on. And the Phils will still be in first place.

It would be nice to have a good showing in this series, though, considering the fact that nearly everyone predicted this would be the World Series prior to this season starting. We need to go out and prove that we are a complete baseball team, not just 4 starting pitchers. And I think at this point, it's most important to prove that to ourselves.

Game 1: Josh Beckett (6-2, 1.86 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (8-5, 2.87 ERA)
The Phillies have a ton of experience against Beckett, dating back to when he was with the Marlins. He is a much better pitcher now than he was then, though. He has the lowest ERA of any starting pitcher in baseball. And within all of that experience is not a ton of success. Howard and Utley, though, are both hitting over .300 against them with OPS's up around 1.000. On the flip side, Cliff Lee is facing some scary opponents tomorrow. Most notably Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is hitting .361 this season (best in baseball) with 71 RBI (most in baseball). Those numbers suck compared to what he has done against Lee. He's hitting .700 with a 2.000 OPS. I keep refreshing the website I'm getting these numbers from to make sure they're right. The good news is that we're still in June 2011. Lee is 4-0 with a 0.27 ERA.
Prediction: Red Sox 3 Phillies 2
Keep an eye out for: Gonzalez being a part of every Red Sox run and Utley doing the same for us

Game 2: John Lackey (5-6, 7.36 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (2-1, 2.83 ERA)
This, in theory, is the game in which we can score some runs. It is also, in theory, the game in which the Red Sox can score some runs (along with every other game they play). Lackey has been bad this year. He's given up 8 earned runs or more 3 times. Raul Ibanez is a career .352 hitter against him in a ton of at bats, so you know he's gotta be awful. In all seriousness, he's never been a bad pitcher before this season, but I think he's too often seen as a really good pitcher. He's a pretty consistent winner but nothing spectacular. I have decided to not doubt Vance Worley pitching against any team for the first time. I never have a great feeling about it, but he has come through for us. His biggest problem will be keeping a pitch count down and throwing strikes, especially against a very well-disciplined Red Sox team. I think they are going to take advantage of the baserunners he allows. But hopefully we can take advantage of the mediocrity that is John Lackey.
Prediction: Red Sox 7 Phillies 5
Keep an eye out for: Worley not making it through 5 innings and the Phillies constantly trying to play catch-up but coming up just short.

Game 3: Jon Lester (9-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (9-4, 2.49 ERA)
What a difference an offense makes. Lester, who is a great pitcher, has an ERA that is well over a full run higher than Hamels, but has the same record. He gets 8.71 runs of support per game (5th in the majors) versus Hamels' 4.66 runs per game (just behind Cliff Lee for 9th worst in the NL). I can't really comment on what we'll do against Lester other than not score very much (because we don't score very much), but I have a good feeling about Hamels in this game (assuming he gets the start and not Kendrick). He is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his career against the Red Sox, and one of my favorite Hamels pitching memories is this game from 2008. The Red Sox came in as a better team than us and the reigning World Series champs, and we stuck it to them behind a strong pitching performance by Hamels. If we lose the first 2, I definitely expect a big showing from him. I also expect Charlie to start him if we lose the first 2.
Prediction: Phillies 3 Red Sox 1
Keep an eye out for: double digit strikeouts by Hamels in 8 innings