Padres Preview

This something that I've talked about before, but I feel the need to address it again - partially because some people may not have been reading this blog that long ago and partially because it's just something that really bothers me.

My recommendation to you over the next 4 games is this: listen to the game on the radio. Please, please, please do not subject yourself to Thomas McCarthy and Christopher Wheeler's commentary on every single fly ball about how much of a "pitcher's park" PETCO is out in San Diego. I will guarantee that this gets mentioned at least once in every game. And, if I know Christopher Wheeler (which I do all too well), it will more than likely be mentioned twice each time a ball is hit into the outfield. Here are direct quotes from the future:

"Man this place is big. This guy's a really good athlete." -Christopher Wheeler (chuckling smugly to himself and randomly commenting on pitchers' athletic ability for no reason)
"And ANOTHER fly ball to the warning track! How about that!" -Thomas McCarthy (screaming for no reason)
"BaLlS aCtUaLlY fLy OuT oF cItIzEnS bAnK pArK!" -Sarge (using inflection that no one can quite figure out)

What do I make of all this pitchers park malarkey? To me, there's really no such thing. If you go back and read the post that I linked to in the first line of this post, you will see that it is referencing a Phillies win in which we got plenty of hits and scored 5 runs while leaving way too many people on base. A bigger park means more room for hits to fall in. Yes, it probably means less home runs, but that hasn't been our strong suit this season anyway (Read: yesterday's post).

The people that would be most affected by this: Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels. Howard because he hits home runs, and Hamels because he gives them up. Howard does not, however, normally hit balls into the first row, so he should have plenty of power to get balls out of PETCO. And Hamels will now just give up less runs due to the extra space. Sounds good to me.

Game 1: Roy Oswalt (2-0, 2.50 ERA) vs. Mat Latos (0-2, 5.84 ERA)
Oswalt has great career numbers both against the Padres and at PETCO. Although the PETCO thing goes against my theory, I am going to ignore it and make these numbers work for me however I want. The time zone change scares me about this game, and Mat Latos is a good pitcher against whom we've been very average at best. But I think that Oswalt puts to rest any worries about his back
Prediction: Phillies 5 Padres 1
Keep an eye out for: Mayberry's first home run of the year

Game 2: Cole Hamels (1-1, 4.32 ERA) vs. Clayton Richard (1-0, 4.50 ERA)
One thing that all MLB players have in common is their ability to be awesome in their hometowns. I have no statistics to back this up other than Ryan Howard always being awesome against the Cardinals, Chase Utley being awesome against everyone including the Dodgers, and Cole Hamels I think probably usually doing pretty well in San Diego. I expect that to continue.
Prediction: Phillies 4 Padres 0
Keep an eye out for: Cole striking out 12 in a complete game shutout

Game 3: Joe Blanton (0-1, 7.27 ERA) vs. Tim Stauffer (0-1, 3.27 ERA)
I hate to say that we'll lose with Blanton on the mound, but I don't see us sweeping a 4-game series and I don't see us losing any of the other games. Sorry, Joe, still no respect.
Prediction: Padres 7 Phillies 2
Keep an eye out for: Joe doing well and the bullpen blowing this one

Game 4: Roy Halladay (2-1, 2.83 ERA) vs. TBD
HA! They aren't even going to pitch anyone against him! They've just given up on game 4! Nice win, Roy.
Prediction: Phillies 1 Padres 0 (I think this is what a forfeit goes down as)
Keep an eye out for: Roy bouncing back strong after a rough outing last time

Note: No, I do not actually think the last game will be a forfeit. But we will win it.