I'll probably give a real reaction to this series within a week or so. I'm not sure what to do from there. Do I try to update every couple of weeks or something in the offseason? Or do we just pick up at the beginning of next season?
Who knows, but I'm not figuring it out right now. That game was depressing.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
NLDS Game 5 Preview
We need to win one game. Quick: What situation do you want?
Pitcher? Roy Halladay
Rest? Full
Location? Home
Lineup? Healthy
Opponent? Who cares
This is ours to win. As I always say when procrastinating, deadlines are there for a reason. If we needed to win in 4 games, things would be different. It's a 5-game series though. So let's just win Game 5 in the exact situation we want to be in.
Stop crying, focus, and see you in the NLCS.
Prediction: Phillies more Cardinals less
Keep an eye out for: celebrations in the Phillies' clubhouse
Pitcher? Roy Halladay
Rest? Full
Location? Home
Lineup? Healthy
Opponent? Who cares
This is ours to win. As I always say when procrastinating, deadlines are there for a reason. If we needed to win in 4 games, things would be different. It's a 5-game series though. So let's just win Game 5 in the exact situation we want to be in.
Stop crying, focus, and see you in the NLCS.
Prediction: Phillies more Cardinals less
Keep an eye out for: celebrations in the Phillies' clubhouse
NLDS Game 4 Preview
The Phillies currently lead the best-of-5 series 2 games to 1.
Was this the plan?
Game 1: Roy Halladay gets rocked in the first inning. He then proceeds to retire 21 straight batters while our offense can't be stopped. Then, the bullpen does its best to blow an 8-run lead in the 9th, but we get out of it without any real worries and take home an 11-6 win
Game 2: We jump out to a 4-0 lead with Cliff Lee on the mound. Game over, right? Well, the Cardinals put together a series of horrible and fake hits to take a 5-4 lead. Cliff ends up with the loss after pitching just 6 innings and giving up all 5 runs on 12 hits. With that 5-4 loss, we lose home-field advantage and need to travel to St. Louis, one of the best baseball cities in America, to get at least one game back and avoid elimination.
Game 3: Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels flirts with 90 pitches while Jaime Garcia, someone who has historically killed us, throws just 51. We start to get to Garcia a little in the 6th, and Ben Francisco comes in in the 7th to hit a pinch-hit 3-run home run to give us a 3-0 lead. We find out that he apparently has a nickname that is unrelated to his resemblance to a camel, and it's actually a really sweet one. Benny Fresh is compared to Matt Stairs, and meanwhile the Cardinals are getting 4 hits out of Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot but are largely unable to turn them into anything. After 2 runs out of the bullpen and 5 outs out of Ryan Madson, the Phils get the win they need to take a 2-1 series lead.
Is this what we were looking for? Not at all. Last year's NLDS included a no-hitter by Halladay, a shutout by Hamels, and a 3-0 series sweep. This year was supposed to be much of the same. After all, our team is better than last year, aren't they?
Yes, our team is better than last year, and, if for no other reason, it's because we know how to win ugly. We lost last year because we just didn't win. That's an obvious statement, but it makes more sense when looked at in relation to this team. We just win. We are just winning games. Not the way we're supposed to win them. I know it's only 2 wins right now, but you can already see that this team NEEDS to win. As I said before the playoffs, it's a perfect mixture of talent, "This-Might-Be-Our-Last-Chance" desire, and "HolyCrapThisIsAwesomeLetsPlayReallyHardJustSoWeCanKeepPlaying" Hunter Pence attitude. That combination is not going to settle for anything less than a World Series. If someone needs to step up, they'll step up. Benny Fresh comes to mind.
That brings us to tonight's game. What have we gotten out of Oswalt this season? Not a whole lot. I expect a solid outing - maybe 6 or 7 innings giving up 3 runs or so. But what I expect means nothing thus far, so I'm gonna go with a completely dominant performance by him. This game is all ours. But I don't recommend expecting that...this team doesn't like for us to know what's coming.
Game 4 Preview:
Phillies pitcher: Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA)
Oswalt has had quite the crazy season. Coming in, he was our 3rd starter and had just come off of a dominating run with the Phils at the end of last season that extended into the playoffs. Injuries and natural disasters threw things off for him a little bit, but that doesn't mean he doesn't still have it in him to go out and shut down opposing batters.
Somehow, he has managed to make 3 starts against the Cardinals this season, more than any of our other starters. One was pretty average, 1 was pretty bad, and 1 was pretty awesome. That gives him a 1-1 record with a 3.21 ERA against the Cards this year.
His "pretty average" start came in mid-May, when he pitched well but lasted only 5 innings. Yadier Molina drove in St. Louis' only run off of him, and we were able to tie the game up before eventually losing to give Roy a no-decision.
His "pretty bad" start came at the end of June. He lasted just 2 innings and gave up 4 runs before leaving with back problems. This was the last start he had before spending over a month on the disabled list (still a hilarious term to me when I actually think about it...disabled list. HA!). It's tough to hold that against him because he was clearly not healthy and ready to go for that game. He gave up a home run to Jon Jay in the first inning, and a series of singles allowed the Cardinals to score a few more in the 2nd. Jay is actually one of the worst hitters against Oswalt with just a .250 batting average, but he does have that home run. The rest of the Cardinals roster is kind of scary to look at. They hit a collective .296 against him with plenty of at bats, mostly because he spent so much time in the NL Central with Houston. Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot, last night's stars for the Cardinals, both bat over .300 against him in a combined 118 at bats. Pujols has 5 home runs to add to that. Rafael Furcal is a .350 hitter in 20 at bats, and Yadier Molina has a .333 average against Oswalt in 24 at bats.
As I kind of said, there aren't too many hitters who struggle all that much against Roy Oswalt historically. Allen Craig bats .200, Jay .250, and Skip Schumaker hits just .261 (which isn't even that bad). So what did he do in his "pretty good" start against them to get the win this season? Well, he pitched 7 shutout innings and gave up only 5 hits. He held Pujols hitless and struck out 7 while walking no one, so it is clear that he is capable of having his way with this lineup.
In the postseason, Oswalt is 5-1 in his career with a 3.39 ERA. It's a pretty average ERA, but the 5-1 record suggests that he may be just the pitcher the Phillies are in need of right now. He wins, and that's it. He's allowed 90 base runners in 66.1 postseason innings, but he just gets wins. That's all we need right now - a win. If Oswalt is the guy to get it for us, then he's the guy to get it for us. He may pitch a shutout. He also might pitch 4 innings and give up 5 runs. Either way, someone is going to step up and get the win tonight, whether it be Oswalt, Benny Fresh, or even Raoops Suckhole (but really...it won't be him).
Cardinals pitcher: Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)
If you want to know about Edwin Jackson, just take a look in your grocer's freezer at a hot new ice cream flavor known as "vanilla."
You can put sprinkles and syrup and whipped cream and cherries all over vanilla ice cream to convince yourself it's better just because it has something else covering it, but it's still vanilla ice cream.
Edwin Jackson is much the same. He's been traded 28 times in the past 3 seasons if I remember correctly, but, no matter how much you dress him up with a new uniform in a new city, he's still suuuper average. Seriously, though, the Cardinals are his 6th team since 2008 (if you include his trade to Toronto this season so he could get traded to St. Louis, which I do). He's 60-60 in his career with a 4.46 ERA. He threw a no-hitter last year, only no one cared because he walked 8 batters. I don't even care enough to mention what any Phillies player has done against him in their careers. That's partially because we don't have a ton of experience against him (if Jimmy Rollins has 0 at bats, no one should have any), but it's also partially because there's really only one thing worth mentioning about him...
Edwin Jackson has very limited playoff numbers. He pitched only in 2008. He did well against the Red Sox in the ALCS, then he appeared in one game in the World Series (ya know, the one that we WON?!). That game? Game 4. What did he do? Pitched 2 pretty insignificant innings and gave up a meaningless run. Only the run wasn't all that meaningless, because it was a home run. And it was hit by Joe Blanton.
Prediction: Phillies 5 Cardinals 1
Keep an eye out for: Edwin Jackson. Seriously, look for him. He has a tendency to blend in with all of his surroundings and go completely unnoticed in life.
Was this the plan?
Game 1: Roy Halladay gets rocked in the first inning. He then proceeds to retire 21 straight batters while our offense can't be stopped. Then, the bullpen does its best to blow an 8-run lead in the 9th, but we get out of it without any real worries and take home an 11-6 win
Game 2: We jump out to a 4-0 lead with Cliff Lee on the mound. Game over, right? Well, the Cardinals put together a series of horrible and fake hits to take a 5-4 lead. Cliff ends up with the loss after pitching just 6 innings and giving up all 5 runs on 12 hits. With that 5-4 loss, we lose home-field advantage and need to travel to St. Louis, one of the best baseball cities in America, to get at least one game back and avoid elimination.
Game 3: Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels flirts with 90 pitches while Jaime Garcia, someone who has historically killed us, throws just 51. We start to get to Garcia a little in the 6th, and Ben Francisco comes in in the 7th to hit a pinch-hit 3-run home run to give us a 3-0 lead. We find out that he apparently has a nickname that is unrelated to his resemblance to a camel, and it's actually a really sweet one. Benny Fresh is compared to Matt Stairs, and meanwhile the Cardinals are getting 4 hits out of Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot but are largely unable to turn them into anything. After 2 runs out of the bullpen and 5 outs out of Ryan Madson, the Phils get the win they need to take a 2-1 series lead.
Is this what we were looking for? Not at all. Last year's NLDS included a no-hitter by Halladay, a shutout by Hamels, and a 3-0 series sweep. This year was supposed to be much of the same. After all, our team is better than last year, aren't they?
Yes, our team is better than last year, and, if for no other reason, it's because we know how to win ugly. We lost last year because we just didn't win. That's an obvious statement, but it makes more sense when looked at in relation to this team. We just win. We are just winning games. Not the way we're supposed to win them. I know it's only 2 wins right now, but you can already see that this team NEEDS to win. As I said before the playoffs, it's a perfect mixture of talent, "This-Might-Be-Our-Last-Chance" desire, and "HolyCrapThisIsAwesomeLetsPlayReallyHardJustSoWeCanKeepPlaying" Hunter Pence attitude. That combination is not going to settle for anything less than a World Series. If someone needs to step up, they'll step up. Benny Fresh comes to mind.
That brings us to tonight's game. What have we gotten out of Oswalt this season? Not a whole lot. I expect a solid outing - maybe 6 or 7 innings giving up 3 runs or so. But what I expect means nothing thus far, so I'm gonna go with a completely dominant performance by him. This game is all ours. But I don't recommend expecting that...this team doesn't like for us to know what's coming.
Game 4 Preview:
Phillies pitcher: Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA)
Oswalt has had quite the crazy season. Coming in, he was our 3rd starter and had just come off of a dominating run with the Phils at the end of last season that extended into the playoffs. Injuries and natural disasters threw things off for him a little bit, but that doesn't mean he doesn't still have it in him to go out and shut down opposing batters.
Somehow, he has managed to make 3 starts against the Cardinals this season, more than any of our other starters. One was pretty average, 1 was pretty bad, and 1 was pretty awesome. That gives him a 1-1 record with a 3.21 ERA against the Cards this year.
His "pretty average" start came in mid-May, when he pitched well but lasted only 5 innings. Yadier Molina drove in St. Louis' only run off of him, and we were able to tie the game up before eventually losing to give Roy a no-decision.
His "pretty bad" start came at the end of June. He lasted just 2 innings and gave up 4 runs before leaving with back problems. This was the last start he had before spending over a month on the disabled list (still a hilarious term to me when I actually think about it...disabled list. HA!). It's tough to hold that against him because he was clearly not healthy and ready to go for that game. He gave up a home run to Jon Jay in the first inning, and a series of singles allowed the Cardinals to score a few more in the 2nd. Jay is actually one of the worst hitters against Oswalt with just a .250 batting average, but he does have that home run. The rest of the Cardinals roster is kind of scary to look at. They hit a collective .296 against him with plenty of at bats, mostly because he spent so much time in the NL Central with Houston. Albert Pujols and Ryan Theriot, last night's stars for the Cardinals, both bat over .300 against him in a combined 118 at bats. Pujols has 5 home runs to add to that. Rafael Furcal is a .350 hitter in 20 at bats, and Yadier Molina has a .333 average against Oswalt in 24 at bats.
As I kind of said, there aren't too many hitters who struggle all that much against Roy Oswalt historically. Allen Craig bats .200, Jay .250, and Skip Schumaker hits just .261 (which isn't even that bad). So what did he do in his "pretty good" start against them to get the win this season? Well, he pitched 7 shutout innings and gave up only 5 hits. He held Pujols hitless and struck out 7 while walking no one, so it is clear that he is capable of having his way with this lineup.
In the postseason, Oswalt is 5-1 in his career with a 3.39 ERA. It's a pretty average ERA, but the 5-1 record suggests that he may be just the pitcher the Phillies are in need of right now. He wins, and that's it. He's allowed 90 base runners in 66.1 postseason innings, but he just gets wins. That's all we need right now - a win. If Oswalt is the guy to get it for us, then he's the guy to get it for us. He may pitch a shutout. He also might pitch 4 innings and give up 5 runs. Either way, someone is going to step up and get the win tonight, whether it be Oswalt, Benny Fresh, or even Raoops Suckhole (but really...it won't be him).
Cardinals pitcher: Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)
If you want to know about Edwin Jackson, just take a look in your grocer's freezer at a hot new ice cream flavor known as "vanilla."
You can put sprinkles and syrup and whipped cream and cherries all over vanilla ice cream to convince yourself it's better just because it has something else covering it, but it's still vanilla ice cream.
Edwin Jackson is much the same. He's been traded 28 times in the past 3 seasons if I remember correctly, but, no matter how much you dress him up with a new uniform in a new city, he's still suuuper average. Seriously, though, the Cardinals are his 6th team since 2008 (if you include his trade to Toronto this season so he could get traded to St. Louis, which I do). He's 60-60 in his career with a 4.46 ERA. He threw a no-hitter last year, only no one cared because he walked 8 batters. I don't even care enough to mention what any Phillies player has done against him in their careers. That's partially because we don't have a ton of experience against him (if Jimmy Rollins has 0 at bats, no one should have any), but it's also partially because there's really only one thing worth mentioning about him...
Edwin Jackson has very limited playoff numbers. He pitched only in 2008. He did well against the Red Sox in the ALCS, then he appeared in one game in the World Series (ya know, the one that we WON?!). That game? Game 4. What did he do? Pitched 2 pretty insignificant innings and gave up a meaningless run. Only the run wasn't all that meaningless, because it was a home run. And it was hit by Joe Blanton.
Prediction: Phillies 5 Cardinals 1
Keep an eye out for: Edwin Jackson. Seriously, look for him. He has a tendency to blend in with all of his surroundings and go completely unnoticed in life.
Monday, October 3, 2011
NLDS Game 3 Preview
The best-of-5 series is currently tied 1-1.
Game 2 was depressing. There's no denying that.
Perhaps the Eagles game felt a little different listening to it on the internet down here in VA, because I was nowhere near as upset as all of southeastern Pennsylvania seemingly was via Facebook and Twitter. As the Birds built up a huge lead and then slowly but surely let it slip away, I took solace in the fact that the Steelers were still managing to suck. The NFL isn't really my thing anyway.
Then came the tweets and status updates consisting of the tri-state area expressing more interest in leaping off of the Ben Franklin Bridge or stepping down off that ledge just to lay down in traffic than stick around long enough to see what the Phillies had in store. I had no idea that this loss hurt so bad. What was the big deal? We still had the Phils to look forward to, not dread!
Then, something horrible happened. My apathy towards Philadelphia football turned into a way too similar Philadelphia baseball experience. I love blaming myself for losses, and I've got all kinds of reasons that this one is on me:
1) I didn't give a crap about the Eagles losing, so the Phillies had to lose in much the same way so I could experience the pain of everyone else from my home state (yes, everyone else. I'm from Pennsylvania. If you weren't upset by football AND baseball yesterday, you're probably from the state of West Pennsylvania).
2) I predicted a loss. I like to stay true to what I think, and I'd probably predict the same thing if I had to do it again. But that doesn't mean it wasn't in all of the players' heads going into the game after reading the blog.
3) I didn't wear any Phillies gear. It was a pretty lazy Sunday for me, and I failed to put on my Chase Utley jersey until after we were already losing. Idiot.
4) I bought a case of PBR before the game on Saturday and decided I was only going to drink it during games. While I didn't drink it any other time, I also didn't drink it during the game. My bad, guys.
5) I didn't force my friend Dave to come over and watch after he was here on Saturday night.
6) I tried to act like superstitions don't matter.
The Phils losing takes a huge mental and emotional toll on me in these ways. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to fall asleep after single-handedly losing a Phillies playoff game? Well, it's pretty tough (although, admittedly, not so tough the following afternoon when you have a butt ton of other stuff to be doing instead of passing out).
The reality we all need to face, though, is that this game was essentially no one's fault. We were (and are) the better team. The Cardinals had an abundance of what I like to call Bull's Hits. What does that mean? Well, one of the newer statistics that has been kicked around over the past couple years is something called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. A normal BABIP is around .300. The Phillies' BABIP last night was, if my calculations are correct, .240. That could suggest that we weren't hitting the ball very hard, so we can take some heat for that. The Cardinals, however, had a BABIP of.464. Thirteen of their 27 balls that were hit in play dropped in for hits. And we saw them all drop in crappy spots: ground balls between shortstop and third, bloops singles into short right field, and liners that went just a couple feet over the infielders and in front of the outfielders. While we can expect those hits to drop in about 30% of the time (a .300 BABIP), the almost 50% that the Cardinals experienced is mostly due to luck, not skill. That's where I get the name Bull's Hits. Take out the apostrophe and push those words together, and you see what most of the hits truly were (I'll let you figure it out in hopes of keeping this blog pretty PG).
Yes, it is extremely frustrating to blow a 4-0 lead. I'm not excusing the Phillies blowing that lead, because they ultimately did, but I am saying that a lot of it was a freak accident. They weren't necessarily the better team, but they certainly were the luckier team. If the game plays out the way a normal baseball game should, we hold onto that 4-0 lead. Much like I said yesterday, a loss is still a loss, but it can at least put our minds at ease a little.
Before getting to the preview, I want to quickly say that Tony LaRussa is a total douche.
Game 3 Preview:
Phillies pitcher: Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA)
Cole Hamels has somehow been slightly forgotten in the Phillies rotation with the beginning of the postseason. He didn't have the greatest end to the season, going 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in September. That's way more fresh in our minds than his 11-4, 2.32 ERA first half of the season. His awful 2009 postseason seems to have erased the memory of 2008 and overshadowed his limited work in 2010. None of that, however, means that he's not ready to be great.
He had just one start against the Cardinals this season, and it was just a few weeks ago during our 8-game losing streak. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs and 2 home runs while getting the loss. He did, however, strike out 9 and not walk anyone in the game. He also only threw 91 pitches in the 7 innings of work. The 5-0 loss was dominated by Allen Craig, who went 3 for 4 with 2 homers (one off Hamels), a double, and 3 RBI. Albert Pujols accounted for the other 2 runs with a home run of his own.
In his career against this Cardinals roster, Hamels has allowed them to hit an inflated .270. He's also surrendered 4 home runs, including the ones from Craig and Pujols, as well as another from Pujols and one from Ryan Theriot. Theriot, Craig, and Lance Berkman all have .333 batting averages against him.
Pujols and Rafael Furcal are the hitters that he's managed to shut down the best over the years, allowing them to hit just .174 and .200, respectively, in a combined 33 at bats.
Hamels' career playoff numbers seem to tell 2 different stories. Combined, he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA. If you split that up, though, he is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 2007 and 2009, and he is 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in '08 and 2010. While these numbers might suggest that 2011, being an odd year, will be a down year for him, I call malarkey. I think that we see the good postseason Hamels this year, feeling like he has something to prove in these playoffs.
Cardinals pitcher: Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
Jaime Garcia has, for the past 2 seasons, been the most dreaded of pitchers for the Phillies to face. He fits into that classic mold that has killed us for years now. He's young, he's a lefty, and we don't have a lot of experience against him. Those things, though, should not be as big of a concern as they have been in the past.
Garcia somehow escaped getting a win against the Phillies this season despite having incredible numbers against us. In 2 starts, he threw 15 innings, allowed just 13 base runners, and only gave up 1 earned run to give himself a 0.60 ERA against us.
The Phillies batters who have given him the most trouble are John Mayberry and Hunter Pence. Mayberry is 3 for 6 with a double and an RBI, and Pence's .200 batting average is made up for by the fact that his 3 hits are a double, a triple, and a home run. For a roster with a .202 average against him, it's tough to find something really great.
As for who struggles, that would be essentially everyone else. Rollins .091; Utley 0-for-6; Howard .167; Victorino .222; Ibanez 1-for-3; Polanco .182; Ruiz 0-for-3. We are so bad against him that I almost had to say that Suckhole is one of our best hitters against him. Due to limited at bats though, I am going to avoid that. Along with that, it seems pretty clear to me that Mayberry should be starting this game. All biases aside, a look at Mayberry's numbers, along with what he can create on the base paths and his ability to consistently hit for extra bases, will tell really anyone with any sense that he should be getting an opportunity to start this game. Anyone with any sense, though, doesn't always include Charlie Manuel.
Looking at all of the statistics that I've given here, it's easy to be discouraged by this matchup. So why am I not? Well, like I said, Garcia has been a young lefty that we hadn't seen very often in the past. Now, we've seen him a few times. Now, we have an extra righty (possibly 2 *fingers crossed*) in our lineup with Hunter Pence. With every new pitcher we see, we get to a point where we either start really getting to them, or we let them dominate us forever. Is Jaime Garcia really worthy of being a pitcher that we let dominate us forever? He's pitching 3rd on a team who started Kyle Lohse in Game 1 and had to trade for Edwin "Extra Medium" Jackson during the season to sure up their starting rotation. For this Phillies team, it feels like it's now or never with Garcia, and I think the time is now.
Prediction: Phillies 6 Cardinals 0
Keep an eye out for: Garcia being driven out of the game early as he struggles to handle the pressure of a playoff atmosphere in St. Louis. Garcia is making his first playoff appearance, and I think the only thing tougher than him pitching in Philadelphia could very well be him pitching at home in St. Louis. It's a great baseball city with high expectations, and that pressure might be more difficult than the hostile Philly fans. Hamels' experience will carry him to the shut-down outing we've been waiting for (for 2 whole games!) from a starter.
Game 2 was depressing. There's no denying that.
Perhaps the Eagles game felt a little different listening to it on the internet down here in VA, because I was nowhere near as upset as all of southeastern Pennsylvania seemingly was via Facebook and Twitter. As the Birds built up a huge lead and then slowly but surely let it slip away, I took solace in the fact that the Steelers were still managing to suck. The NFL isn't really my thing anyway.
Then came the tweets and status updates consisting of the tri-state area expressing more interest in leaping off of the Ben Franklin Bridge or stepping down off that ledge just to lay down in traffic than stick around long enough to see what the Phillies had in store. I had no idea that this loss hurt so bad. What was the big deal? We still had the Phils to look forward to, not dread!
Then, something horrible happened. My apathy towards Philadelphia football turned into a way too similar Philadelphia baseball experience. I love blaming myself for losses, and I've got all kinds of reasons that this one is on me:
1) I didn't give a crap about the Eagles losing, so the Phillies had to lose in much the same way so I could experience the pain of everyone else from my home state (yes, everyone else. I'm from Pennsylvania. If you weren't upset by football AND baseball yesterday, you're probably from the state of West Pennsylvania).
2) I predicted a loss. I like to stay true to what I think, and I'd probably predict the same thing if I had to do it again. But that doesn't mean it wasn't in all of the players' heads going into the game after reading the blog.
3) I didn't wear any Phillies gear. It was a pretty lazy Sunday for me, and I failed to put on my Chase Utley jersey until after we were already losing. Idiot.
4) I bought a case of PBR before the game on Saturday and decided I was only going to drink it during games. While I didn't drink it any other time, I also didn't drink it during the game. My bad, guys.
5) I didn't force my friend Dave to come over and watch after he was here on Saturday night.
6) I tried to act like superstitions don't matter.
The Phils losing takes a huge mental and emotional toll on me in these ways. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to fall asleep after single-handedly losing a Phillies playoff game? Well, it's pretty tough (although, admittedly, not so tough the following afternoon when you have a butt ton of other stuff to be doing instead of passing out).
The reality we all need to face, though, is that this game was essentially no one's fault. We were (and are) the better team. The Cardinals had an abundance of what I like to call Bull's Hits. What does that mean? Well, one of the newer statistics that has been kicked around over the past couple years is something called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. A normal BABIP is around .300. The Phillies' BABIP last night was, if my calculations are correct, .240. That could suggest that we weren't hitting the ball very hard, so we can take some heat for that. The Cardinals, however, had a BABIP of.464. Thirteen of their 27 balls that were hit in play dropped in for hits. And we saw them all drop in crappy spots: ground balls between shortstop and third, bloops singles into short right field, and liners that went just a couple feet over the infielders and in front of the outfielders. While we can expect those hits to drop in about 30% of the time (a .300 BABIP), the almost 50% that the Cardinals experienced is mostly due to luck, not skill. That's where I get the name Bull's Hits. Take out the apostrophe and push those words together, and you see what most of the hits truly were (I'll let you figure it out in hopes of keeping this blog pretty PG).
Yes, it is extremely frustrating to blow a 4-0 lead. I'm not excusing the Phillies blowing that lead, because they ultimately did, but I am saying that a lot of it was a freak accident. They weren't necessarily the better team, but they certainly were the luckier team. If the game plays out the way a normal baseball game should, we hold onto that 4-0 lead. Much like I said yesterday, a loss is still a loss, but it can at least put our minds at ease a little.
Before getting to the preview, I want to quickly say that Tony LaRussa is a total douche.
Game 3 Preview:
Phillies pitcher: Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA)
Cole Hamels has somehow been slightly forgotten in the Phillies rotation with the beginning of the postseason. He didn't have the greatest end to the season, going 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in September. That's way more fresh in our minds than his 11-4, 2.32 ERA first half of the season. His awful 2009 postseason seems to have erased the memory of 2008 and overshadowed his limited work in 2010. None of that, however, means that he's not ready to be great.
He had just one start against the Cardinals this season, and it was just a few weeks ago during our 8-game losing streak. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs and 2 home runs while getting the loss. He did, however, strike out 9 and not walk anyone in the game. He also only threw 91 pitches in the 7 innings of work. The 5-0 loss was dominated by Allen Craig, who went 3 for 4 with 2 homers (one off Hamels), a double, and 3 RBI. Albert Pujols accounted for the other 2 runs with a home run of his own.
In his career against this Cardinals roster, Hamels has allowed them to hit an inflated .270. He's also surrendered 4 home runs, including the ones from Craig and Pujols, as well as another from Pujols and one from Ryan Theriot. Theriot, Craig, and Lance Berkman all have .333 batting averages against him.
Pujols and Rafael Furcal are the hitters that he's managed to shut down the best over the years, allowing them to hit just .174 and .200, respectively, in a combined 33 at bats.
Hamels' career playoff numbers seem to tell 2 different stories. Combined, he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA. If you split that up, though, he is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 2007 and 2009, and he is 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in '08 and 2010. While these numbers might suggest that 2011, being an odd year, will be a down year for him, I call malarkey. I think that we see the good postseason Hamels this year, feeling like he has something to prove in these playoffs.
Cardinals pitcher: Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
Jaime Garcia has, for the past 2 seasons, been the most dreaded of pitchers for the Phillies to face. He fits into that classic mold that has killed us for years now. He's young, he's a lefty, and we don't have a lot of experience against him. Those things, though, should not be as big of a concern as they have been in the past.
Garcia somehow escaped getting a win against the Phillies this season despite having incredible numbers against us. In 2 starts, he threw 15 innings, allowed just 13 base runners, and only gave up 1 earned run to give himself a 0.60 ERA against us.
The Phillies batters who have given him the most trouble are John Mayberry and Hunter Pence. Mayberry is 3 for 6 with a double and an RBI, and Pence's .200 batting average is made up for by the fact that his 3 hits are a double, a triple, and a home run. For a roster with a .202 average against him, it's tough to find something really great.
As for who struggles, that would be essentially everyone else. Rollins .091; Utley 0-for-6; Howard .167; Victorino .222; Ibanez 1-for-3; Polanco .182; Ruiz 0-for-3. We are so bad against him that I almost had to say that Suckhole is one of our best hitters against him. Due to limited at bats though, I am going to avoid that. Along with that, it seems pretty clear to me that Mayberry should be starting this game. All biases aside, a look at Mayberry's numbers, along with what he can create on the base paths and his ability to consistently hit for extra bases, will tell really anyone with any sense that he should be getting an opportunity to start this game. Anyone with any sense, though, doesn't always include Charlie Manuel.
Looking at all of the statistics that I've given here, it's easy to be discouraged by this matchup. So why am I not? Well, like I said, Garcia has been a young lefty that we hadn't seen very often in the past. Now, we've seen him a few times. Now, we have an extra righty (possibly 2 *fingers crossed*) in our lineup with Hunter Pence. With every new pitcher we see, we get to a point where we either start really getting to them, or we let them dominate us forever. Is Jaime Garcia really worthy of being a pitcher that we let dominate us forever? He's pitching 3rd on a team who started Kyle Lohse in Game 1 and had to trade for Edwin "Extra Medium" Jackson during the season to sure up their starting rotation. For this Phillies team, it feels like it's now or never with Garcia, and I think the time is now.
Prediction: Phillies 6 Cardinals 0
Keep an eye out for: Garcia being driven out of the game early as he struggles to handle the pressure of a playoff atmosphere in St. Louis. Garcia is making his first playoff appearance, and I think the only thing tougher than him pitching in Philadelphia could very well be him pitching at home in St. Louis. It's a great baseball city with high expectations, and that pressure might be more difficult than the hostile Philly fans. Hamels' experience will carry him to the shut-down outing we've been waiting for (for 2 whole games!) from a starter.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
NLDS Game 2 Preview
The Phillies currently lead the best-of-five series 1 game to 0.
After going through the week leading up to the playoffs explaining how important defense is and how acceptable a .250 postseason batting average is, the Phillies and Cardinals decided to make me look like a complete majoke with an 11-6 Game 1. A lot of positives came out of this for the Phils, but a few negatives come to mind as well. Let's start with the negatives so that we can go into the Game 2 preview on a happier note.
Roy Halladay should never be criticized, but there is a problem that the Phillies have had over the past few years now with giving up first-inning runs. I saw a statistic yesterday that said Halladay has allowed the first batter of the game to bat .452 this season. While one batter is not a huge deal, a runner on first is not a great way to start the game. When we score 11 runs in a game, that's not necessarily a huge deal. When the games get to be 3-2 or 2-0 (which will happen, I promise), that first batter is going to mean a whole lot more.
While that problem may be a little bit of a stretch, the problem with our bullpen may be more serious. I don't want to make too much out of a meaningless 9th inning in a game where we had an 8-run lead, but it is something we should look out for. Is this what Stutes is going to do in the playoffs? I don't expect his 81.01 ERA to keep up, but I am anxious to see how he responds to that rough outing. Is this going to serve as a wake-up call of sorts that gets him motivated for the postseason, or is it a showing of what is to come from him in any type of pressure situation? And I would hardly call the 9th inning of an 11-3 game a "pressure situation." Our relievers are largely inconsistent or inexperienced. We are going to be relying on Antonio Bastardo (inexperienced), Joe Blanton (inconsistent), Kyle Kendrick (inconsistent), Brad Lidge (inconsistent), Ryan Madson (inexperienced as a closer), Michael Stutes (inexperienced), and Vance Worley (inexperienced). I don't know about you, but that doesn't thrill me in a close game.
Clearly, though, the game was not all negative. After all, we won! And at the end of the day, a win is a win is a win. In the playoffs, you just need to win. It doesn't need to be pretty or inspiring, it just needs to come out as a win. We potentially play 19 games, and we only need to go 11-8 in the right way to get another World Series. With that being said, it was a good win from the 2nd to the 8th inning. Halladay only allowed 2 balls out of the infield after the first inning, and his only base runner allowed was the leadoff man in the 2nd. He's pitched 17 NLDS innings in the last 2 seasons, and he's only given up a hit in 2 of them.
Chase Utley and Shane Victorino each had 3-hit games.
Ryan Howard hit a home run that actually clipped a low-flying plane.
Raul Ibanez did positive things
If this is what our offense is going to look like during the postseason, we can call up Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and have them come start for us again. Heck, bring Omar Daal back so he can taste a playoff victory. We could even let Michael Stutes pitch if he wants to! (What I'm basically trying to say is, this was a great game for our offense)
While there is bad and good to be taken from the game, today's Game 2 is a completely new game. We can hope that our bats stay hot and that Cliff Lee dominates like Roy did, but we really can't know what's going to happen. We sure can try though...
Game 2 Preview:
Cardinals pitcher: Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA)
Chris Carpenter has been the ace of the Cardinals rotation since he got there, winning the Cy Young in his 2nd season with St. Louis in 2005. For really the first time since anyone can remember, he came out this year and did not completely dominate opposing teams. It took him until July to get his ERA under 4.00 for good, and until his last 5 starts of the season, he was still up at 3.92.
His last 5 starts, though, have him entering the postseason pretty hot. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 40 innings.
Included in there is an 8-inning outing against the Phillies in which he gave up 0 runs and shut us out. His other start against Philadelphia lasted 7 innings, and he allowed just 6 base runners and gave up only 1 run in a 12-2 win for the Cardinals.
As a team, we have only a .224 career batting average against him. Polanco, Utley, and Victorino have enjoyed the most success against him. Polanco has a .313 average with a triple, Utley is 7-for-15 lifetime (.467) with a double, and Victorino is a .300 hitter with a double as well.
If you look at the rest of our starting lineup, though, they hit just .158. Howard is the best of that bunch with a .222 average and one home run, but that's about as positive as it gets. Rollins and Pence have seen him the most, a combined 50 at bats between the two of them.
Carpenter has been known to pitch very well in the playoffs. His career numbers include 9 starts, a 5-2 record, and a 2.93 ERA. Most of those numbers are from 2005 and 2006, though. In his only other postseason start (2009), Carpenter gave up 9 hits and 4 runs while walking another 4 in just 5 innings. Will that Chris Carpenter show up, or will it be the one who pitched so well during extended playoff runs for St. Louis in '05 and '06?
My biggest worry about Carpenter is an ability to keep his pinch count pretty low. Couple that with the fact that we don't have much success against him, and it could end up being a long day for the Phillies offense.
Phillies pitcher: Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)
Cliff Lee, more than anything else it seems, is a big-game pitcher. In games against playoff teams this season, he went 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA, and he was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA against playoff teams starting with a May 21 matchup against his former team, the Texas Rangers. He comes into this postseason with more of a reputation for October dominance than anyone else.
He has faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. One of those games was a shutout, and the other was a nationally-televised disaster in mid-May in which he walked 6 batters. Still, he only gave up 3 runs in that game, a game where the Phillies managed to only score 1.
Cardinals hitters have a .225 average against him, and only Rafael Furcal has hit a home run off of him of anyone on their current roster. Furcal is 2-for-3 against him lifetime. Lance Berkman is the most notable of the other Cardinals with success against Lee, going 5-for-13 (.385) lifetime with 3 doubles and 3 RBI. Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot are also around the .300-mark against him.
Lee has shut down most other Cardinals. The highest batting average of the rest of their players is Yadier Molina's .231. Pujols is just 1-for-8 with 2 walks, and Matt Holliday is only 1-for-6 with 4 walks. It appears that if Lee can keep his control, he should be able to go through the Cardinals order without too many speed bumps.
As for him being a big-game pitcher, the easiest way to see it is in looking at his postseason numbers. Although he's only played in October twice, it is fresh in everyone's mind because it was the last 2 seasons, and he has led his ball club to the World Series both years. He has 10 starts, 3 of which are complete games, and he has struck out 80 batters in 76 innings. His 7-2 record and 2.13 ERA are incredible postseason numbers, and I expect him to continue that dominance this year.
He and Carpenter both have the potential to be deadly, but Lee actually has a tendency to run his pitch count up a little bit, as opposed to Carpenter's ability to keep it so low. This could be what decides the game.
Prediction: Cardinals 2 Phillies 1
Keep an eye out for: Carpenter lasting a little bit longer than Lee and the Cardinals' offense taking advantage against our questionable bullpen. If Lee can keep his pitch-count low (or hit a home run or two), the result could be the opposite. Either way, I think I'll be taking the under in this game
After going through the week leading up to the playoffs explaining how important defense is and how acceptable a .250 postseason batting average is, the Phillies and Cardinals decided to make me look like a complete majoke with an 11-6 Game 1. A lot of positives came out of this for the Phils, but a few negatives come to mind as well. Let's start with the negatives so that we can go into the Game 2 preview on a happier note.
Roy Halladay should never be criticized, but there is a problem that the Phillies have had over the past few years now with giving up first-inning runs. I saw a statistic yesterday that said Halladay has allowed the first batter of the game to bat .452 this season. While one batter is not a huge deal, a runner on first is not a great way to start the game. When we score 11 runs in a game, that's not necessarily a huge deal. When the games get to be 3-2 or 2-0 (which will happen, I promise), that first batter is going to mean a whole lot more.
While that problem may be a little bit of a stretch, the problem with our bullpen may be more serious. I don't want to make too much out of a meaningless 9th inning in a game where we had an 8-run lead, but it is something we should look out for. Is this what Stutes is going to do in the playoffs? I don't expect his 81.01 ERA to keep up, but I am anxious to see how he responds to that rough outing. Is this going to serve as a wake-up call of sorts that gets him motivated for the postseason, or is it a showing of what is to come from him in any type of pressure situation? And I would hardly call the 9th inning of an 11-3 game a "pressure situation." Our relievers are largely inconsistent or inexperienced. We are going to be relying on Antonio Bastardo (inexperienced), Joe Blanton (inconsistent), Kyle Kendrick (inconsistent), Brad Lidge (inconsistent), Ryan Madson (inexperienced as a closer), Michael Stutes (inexperienced), and Vance Worley (inexperienced). I don't know about you, but that doesn't thrill me in a close game.
Clearly, though, the game was not all negative. After all, we won! And at the end of the day, a win is a win is a win. In the playoffs, you just need to win. It doesn't need to be pretty or inspiring, it just needs to come out as a win. We potentially play 19 games, and we only need to go 11-8 in the right way to get another World Series. With that being said, it was a good win from the 2nd to the 8th inning. Halladay only allowed 2 balls out of the infield after the first inning, and his only base runner allowed was the leadoff man in the 2nd. He's pitched 17 NLDS innings in the last 2 seasons, and he's only given up a hit in 2 of them.
Chase Utley and Shane Victorino each had 3-hit games.
Ryan Howard hit a home run that actually clipped a low-flying plane.
Raul Ibanez did positive things
If this is what our offense is going to look like during the postseason, we can call up Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and have them come start for us again. Heck, bring Omar Daal back so he can taste a playoff victory. We could even let Michael Stutes pitch if he wants to! (What I'm basically trying to say is, this was a great game for our offense)
While there is bad and good to be taken from the game, today's Game 2 is a completely new game. We can hope that our bats stay hot and that Cliff Lee dominates like Roy did, but we really can't know what's going to happen. We sure can try though...
Game 2 Preview:
Cardinals pitcher: Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA)
Chris Carpenter has been the ace of the Cardinals rotation since he got there, winning the Cy Young in his 2nd season with St. Louis in 2005. For really the first time since anyone can remember, he came out this year and did not completely dominate opposing teams. It took him until July to get his ERA under 4.00 for good, and until his last 5 starts of the season, he was still up at 3.92.
His last 5 starts, though, have him entering the postseason pretty hot. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 40 innings.
Included in there is an 8-inning outing against the Phillies in which he gave up 0 runs and shut us out. His other start against Philadelphia lasted 7 innings, and he allowed just 6 base runners and gave up only 1 run in a 12-2 win for the Cardinals.
As a team, we have only a .224 career batting average against him. Polanco, Utley, and Victorino have enjoyed the most success against him. Polanco has a .313 average with a triple, Utley is 7-for-15 lifetime (.467) with a double, and Victorino is a .300 hitter with a double as well.
If you look at the rest of our starting lineup, though, they hit just .158. Howard is the best of that bunch with a .222 average and one home run, but that's about as positive as it gets. Rollins and Pence have seen him the most, a combined 50 at bats between the two of them.
Carpenter has been known to pitch very well in the playoffs. His career numbers include 9 starts, a 5-2 record, and a 2.93 ERA. Most of those numbers are from 2005 and 2006, though. In his only other postseason start (2009), Carpenter gave up 9 hits and 4 runs while walking another 4 in just 5 innings. Will that Chris Carpenter show up, or will it be the one who pitched so well during extended playoff runs for St. Louis in '05 and '06?
My biggest worry about Carpenter is an ability to keep his pinch count pretty low. Couple that with the fact that we don't have much success against him, and it could end up being a long day for the Phillies offense.
Phillies pitcher: Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)
Cliff Lee, more than anything else it seems, is a big-game pitcher. In games against playoff teams this season, he went 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA, and he was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA against playoff teams starting with a May 21 matchup against his former team, the Texas Rangers. He comes into this postseason with more of a reputation for October dominance than anyone else.
He has faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. One of those games was a shutout, and the other was a nationally-televised disaster in mid-May in which he walked 6 batters. Still, he only gave up 3 runs in that game, a game where the Phillies managed to only score 1.
Cardinals hitters have a .225 average against him, and only Rafael Furcal has hit a home run off of him of anyone on their current roster. Furcal is 2-for-3 against him lifetime. Lance Berkman is the most notable of the other Cardinals with success against Lee, going 5-for-13 (.385) lifetime with 3 doubles and 3 RBI. Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot are also around the .300-mark against him.
Lee has shut down most other Cardinals. The highest batting average of the rest of their players is Yadier Molina's .231. Pujols is just 1-for-8 with 2 walks, and Matt Holliday is only 1-for-6 with 4 walks. It appears that if Lee can keep his control, he should be able to go through the Cardinals order without too many speed bumps.
As for him being a big-game pitcher, the easiest way to see it is in looking at his postseason numbers. Although he's only played in October twice, it is fresh in everyone's mind because it was the last 2 seasons, and he has led his ball club to the World Series both years. He has 10 starts, 3 of which are complete games, and he has struck out 80 batters in 76 innings. His 7-2 record and 2.13 ERA are incredible postseason numbers, and I expect him to continue that dominance this year.
He and Carpenter both have the potential to be deadly, but Lee actually has a tendency to run his pitch count up a little bit, as opposed to Carpenter's ability to keep it so low. This could be what decides the game.
Prediction: Cardinals 2 Phillies 1
Keep an eye out for: Carpenter lasting a little bit longer than Lee and the Cardinals' offense taking advantage against our questionable bullpen. If Lee can keep his pitch-count low (or hit a home run or two), the result could be the opposite. Either way, I think I'll be taking the under in this game
Saturday, October 1, 2011
NLDS Game 1 Preview
As we move through the playoffs, I can't give you a good preview of an entire series. It's very different from the regular season...not knowing who is going to pitch, how people are going to play in the pressure of the playoffs, or how many games there will be. Because of this, you can look forward to a preview for every game.
Yes, I'm actually going to try to preview every. Single. Game. You think I can't do it? Well, you may be right. But I may be crazy. (...but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.)
Hopefully with each one, I can do a recap of the game before and an overall look at how the series is going. Knowing that that will be tough, my main focus will be just to get you information about the upcoming game.
I gave some of my opinion on this series in the Playoff Male Bag, and it's really tough to look at a playoff series as a whole. I don't think we sweep the series, and the Game 4 pitching matchup is not available yet, so it's hard to tell. Originally, I had heard that Jaime Garcia was starting for the Cardinals in Game 1, but it's since been changed to Kyle Lohse. Things are too unpredictable in that way to look at everything at once. I do have a few stats from the season series that I'll share, but things are totally different in the postseason. So, here's our season series at a glance as well as a preview of today's game
Series result: Cardinals won 6-3
Starting pitching:
Cardinals 62.2 IP, 51 H, 11 R, 8 ER, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 1.15 ERA
Phillies 56.1 IP, 52 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 17 BB, 43 K, 4 HR, 2.88 ERA
Relief pitching:
Cardinals 19.1 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 19 ER, 10 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, 8.84 ERA
Phillies 24 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 15 BB, 14 K, 3 HR, 6.00 ERA
Phillies individual stats, the good news:
Cliff Lee: 2 starts, 15.1 innings, 12 hits, 3 ER, 7 Ks, 1.76 ERA; 1 shutout
Vance Worley: 6 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 1.50 ERA
Ryan Madson: 2 innings, 0 runs, 1 K, 0.00 ERA
Chase Utley: 9-for-28, 3 runs, 3 RBI, .321 AVG
Jimmy Rollins: 11-for-39, 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, .282 AVG
Carlos Ruiz: 8-for-24, 4 runs, 3 RBI, 2B, HR, .333 AVG
Phillies individual stats, the bad news:
Cole Hamels: 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 HR, 5.14 ERA
Michael Stutes: 2.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 Ks, 11.57 ERA
Ryan Howard: 4-for-18, 7 Ks, .222 AVG
Raul Ibanez: 2-for-24, 6 Ks, .083 AVG, .328 OPS
*******************************************************************************
Game 1 Preview:
Cardinals pitcher: Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA)
I hate Kyle Lohse. He helped us out in getting to the playoffs in 2007, then decided he deserved more money than we would give him and left. Then we won the World Series. So screw him.
This season, we faced Lohse twice, and he went 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA against us. That pretty much sums up our season series with the Cardinals...a pitcher with a great ERA and no winning record. Howard and Rollins both had a home run off of him in the game that we won. In the game that we lost, Howard didn't play and we only managed 1 unearned run off of Lohse.
In terms of career numbers in the playoffs, he is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA doesn't seem bad, but it really doesn't cut it in the playoffs. Games often end with scores like 3-2 or 2-0, and a 3.38 ERA suggests he's giving up 3 runs in 8 innings. A lot of times, that will be enough for the opposing team to run with and win. He's only ever started 1 game in the postseason, and he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and got the loss.
In terms of career numbers against our players, Lohse should be most worried about Howard, Pence, and Polanco. Howard is a .500 hitter against him in 16 at bats with 2 homers and 8 RBI. Hunter Pence, although he has never homered off of Lohse, has seen him the most and has a .317 average against him in 41 at bats. Polanco hits .375 when Lohse is on the mound, although he has no extra-base hits (classic Polanco).
Lohse has been able to shut down Utley, Victorino, and Rollins, though, holding them to batting averages of .167, .208, and .185, respectively. It seems that we don't necessarily have trouble getting hits off of him (7 in each of his starts this year; a .278 average against him with our current roster), but we just need to get runs off of him. It seems he's been strangely good at getting us out once we have people on base. Why do I say "strangely good?" Because he's not actually good, that's why.
As I mentioned in the preview of our June series with the Cardinals, the most annoying part of Kyle Lohse is not how weirdly good he is or how he left the Phillies. It's how he pronounces his last name. I hate facing him just because of how wrong he is on the pronunciation of an odd grouping of 5 letters.
Phillies pitcher: Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA)
Roy Halladay is not mortal. Giving him the ball in our first playoff game has an incredibly comfortable and confident feel to it. Do we trust anyone more than Roy Halladay? Not just on the Phillies roster, but, like, anyone in the world? I don't even trust my wife as much as I trust Roy Halladay (true, that is mostly because I don't have a wife. But you get the point).
Halladay has horrible Halladay numbers against the Cardinals this season. In 2 starts, he's compiled a 3.21 ERA. A 3.21 ERA! Can you believe that crap?! He's 0-1 in those starts and has allowed an offensive 16 base runners in 14 innings. While this description is clearly dripping with sarcasm, it is kind of odd that he has pitched twice against the Cardinals and not managed a win. So who gives him so much trouble?
Well, the Cards' playoff roster has a .234 career average against Halladay. Lance Berkman is 2-for-5 with a home run, Skip Schumaker is 3-for-8, and Rafael Furcal is 3-for-9 with double against him. So no one really dominates Halladay, and, if they have, it's been in very limited at bats. Albert Pujols, who is obviously the biggest worry going into the series, is just 2 for 11 with a double against Doc in his career. Matt Holliday, another big bat in their lineup, is only 1 for 6. He is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury, so we will see how much action he sees in this series. (Hopefully he doesn't play in Game 1, if for no other reason than avoiding the confusion of Halladay-Holliday matchups.) All of this just tells me that the Cardinals "success" against Roy is kind of an accident, or mostly just due to timely hitting.
Can we figure that Halladay will step up in the playoffs and avoid giving up any awkward or accidental runs? Well, there was that no-hitter thing that he threw to open up the playoffs last season, so I guess we can somewhat expect him to step it up. Last year, in his first playoff run, he pitched 3 games, 22 innings, and struck out 20 guys while going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Those numbers are solid. Some may think they are skewed by the no-hitter, but those people just have to remember one thing: He threw a no-hitter. That means he's good. I expect big things out of Roy. He is always putting the Phillies in the best position to win, so we just need to take advantage of that.
Prediction: Phillies 3 Cardinals 0
Keep an eye out for: Ryan Howard making up for what he didn't do in the regular season by getting a few hits, including a home run. I'm also feeling a nice 7 innings out of Roy, a Lidge-Bastardo combo 8th inning, and a nice 1-2-3 9th by Ryan Madson.
Yes, I'm actually going to try to preview every. Single. Game. You think I can't do it? Well, you may be right. But I may be crazy. (...but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.)
Hopefully with each one, I can do a recap of the game before and an overall look at how the series is going. Knowing that that will be tough, my main focus will be just to get you information about the upcoming game.
I gave some of my opinion on this series in the Playoff Male Bag, and it's really tough to look at a playoff series as a whole. I don't think we sweep the series, and the Game 4 pitching matchup is not available yet, so it's hard to tell. Originally, I had heard that Jaime Garcia was starting for the Cardinals in Game 1, but it's since been changed to Kyle Lohse. Things are too unpredictable in that way to look at everything at once. I do have a few stats from the season series that I'll share, but things are totally different in the postseason. So, here's our season series at a glance as well as a preview of today's game
Series result: Cardinals won 6-3
Starting pitching:
Cardinals 62.2 IP, 51 H, 11 R, 8 ER, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 1.15 ERA
Phillies 56.1 IP, 52 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 17 BB, 43 K, 4 HR, 2.88 ERA
Relief pitching:
Cardinals 19.1 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 19 ER, 10 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, 8.84 ERA
Phillies 24 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 15 BB, 14 K, 3 HR, 6.00 ERA
Phillies individual stats, the good news:
Cliff Lee: 2 starts, 15.1 innings, 12 hits, 3 ER, 7 Ks, 1.76 ERA; 1 shutout
Vance Worley: 6 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 1.50 ERA
Ryan Madson: 2 innings, 0 runs, 1 K, 0.00 ERA
Chase Utley: 9-for-28, 3 runs, 3 RBI, .321 AVG
Jimmy Rollins: 11-for-39, 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, .282 AVG
Carlos Ruiz: 8-for-24, 4 runs, 3 RBI, 2B, HR, .333 AVG
Phillies individual stats, the bad news:
Cole Hamels: 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 HR, 5.14 ERA
Michael Stutes: 2.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 Ks, 11.57 ERA
Ryan Howard: 4-for-18, 7 Ks, .222 AVG
Raul Ibanez: 2-for-24, 6 Ks, .083 AVG, .328 OPS
*******************************************************************************
Game 1 Preview:
Cardinals pitcher: Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA)
I hate Kyle Lohse. He helped us out in getting to the playoffs in 2007, then decided he deserved more money than we would give him and left. Then we won the World Series. So screw him.
This season, we faced Lohse twice, and he went 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA against us. That pretty much sums up our season series with the Cardinals...a pitcher with a great ERA and no winning record. Howard and Rollins both had a home run off of him in the game that we won. In the game that we lost, Howard didn't play and we only managed 1 unearned run off of Lohse.
In terms of career numbers in the playoffs, he is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA doesn't seem bad, but it really doesn't cut it in the playoffs. Games often end with scores like 3-2 or 2-0, and a 3.38 ERA suggests he's giving up 3 runs in 8 innings. A lot of times, that will be enough for the opposing team to run with and win. He's only ever started 1 game in the postseason, and he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and got the loss.
In terms of career numbers against our players, Lohse should be most worried about Howard, Pence, and Polanco. Howard is a .500 hitter against him in 16 at bats with 2 homers and 8 RBI. Hunter Pence, although he has never homered off of Lohse, has seen him the most and has a .317 average against him in 41 at bats. Polanco hits .375 when Lohse is on the mound, although he has no extra-base hits (classic Polanco).
Lohse has been able to shut down Utley, Victorino, and Rollins, though, holding them to batting averages of .167, .208, and .185, respectively. It seems that we don't necessarily have trouble getting hits off of him (7 in each of his starts this year; a .278 average against him with our current roster), but we just need to get runs off of him. It seems he's been strangely good at getting us out once we have people on base. Why do I say "strangely good?" Because he's not actually good, that's why.
As I mentioned in the preview of our June series with the Cardinals, the most annoying part of Kyle Lohse is not how weirdly good he is or how he left the Phillies. It's how he pronounces his last name. I hate facing him just because of how wrong he is on the pronunciation of an odd grouping of 5 letters.
Phillies pitcher: Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA)
Roy Halladay is not mortal. Giving him the ball in our first playoff game has an incredibly comfortable and confident feel to it. Do we trust anyone more than Roy Halladay? Not just on the Phillies roster, but, like, anyone in the world? I don't even trust my wife as much as I trust Roy Halladay (true, that is mostly because I don't have a wife. But you get the point).
Halladay has horrible Halladay numbers against the Cardinals this season. In 2 starts, he's compiled a 3.21 ERA. A 3.21 ERA! Can you believe that crap?! He's 0-1 in those starts and has allowed an offensive 16 base runners in 14 innings. While this description is clearly dripping with sarcasm, it is kind of odd that he has pitched twice against the Cardinals and not managed a win. So who gives him so much trouble?
Well, the Cards' playoff roster has a .234 career average against Halladay. Lance Berkman is 2-for-5 with a home run, Skip Schumaker is 3-for-8, and Rafael Furcal is 3-for-9 with double against him. So no one really dominates Halladay, and, if they have, it's been in very limited at bats. Albert Pujols, who is obviously the biggest worry going into the series, is just 2 for 11 with a double against Doc in his career. Matt Holliday, another big bat in their lineup, is only 1 for 6. He is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury, so we will see how much action he sees in this series. (Hopefully he doesn't play in Game 1, if for no other reason than avoiding the confusion of Halladay-Holliday matchups.) All of this just tells me that the Cardinals "success" against Roy is kind of an accident, or mostly just due to timely hitting.
Can we figure that Halladay will step up in the playoffs and avoid giving up any awkward or accidental runs? Well, there was that no-hitter thing that he threw to open up the playoffs last season, so I guess we can somewhat expect him to step it up. Last year, in his first playoff run, he pitched 3 games, 22 innings, and struck out 20 guys while going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Those numbers are solid. Some may think they are skewed by the no-hitter, but those people just have to remember one thing: He threw a no-hitter. That means he's good. I expect big things out of Roy. He is always putting the Phillies in the best position to win, so we just need to take advantage of that.
Prediction: Phillies 3 Cardinals 0
Keep an eye out for: Ryan Howard making up for what he didn't do in the regular season by getting a few hits, including a home run. I'm also feeling a nice 7 innings out of Roy, a Lidge-Bastardo combo 8th inning, and a nice 1-2-3 9th by Ryan Madson.
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