At this point in my life, there are few secrets I can keep anymore about myself. Everyone knows I value naps more than I do work or exercise, it is very obvious that chick flicks make me very happy, and people are even starting to pick up on the fact that I am often in the mood for a good salad. OK, so get to the part about the Phillies. As I was trying to think of how I wanted to do this year's season preview, two things became clear to me that I'm sure are also no secret:
1) I appreciate a theme
2) I'm addicted to gambling
So with that being said, here is this your 2012 Phillies Season Preview, as seen through the eyes of a gambling enthusiast.
For those of you unfamiliar with the wonderful pastime of betting on sports, what I am going to be dealing with here is a bunch of Over/Unders. Vegas sets a line that says about how many of something a team or player will get. You then bet on whether you think it will be over that number or under that number. Simple, right? Tell that to my checking account.
All of the following are season lines for the Phillies and their players as according to www.sportsbook.ag (it's .ag...that's how you know it's legal). I'm going to tell you whether I would take the over or the under on each of these and give you a little explanation as to why. While the focus of the line may be on one player, you'll end up hearing about much more than just them most likely.
Roy Halladay - Over 17.5 wins
This one feels like an easy bet to me. Halladay actually appears to be getting better with age, which is truly unbelievable considering how good he is. In the last 5 seasons, his ERA has gone 3.71 (2007), 2.78, 2.79, 2.44, 2.35 (last year). His strikeouts have gone up every year. He is throwing the same amount of innings and complete games. He's giving up less hits. Last year, he only allowed 10 home runs. Walking 35 guys in 32 starts isn't bad, either. Halladay isn't the kind of guy that slows down, and his innings over the years aren't really worrying me because of how good of shape he stays in. The only hope is that he doesn't push himself too hard knowing that this is another year closer to not being the same Phillies team that we've been. But if his line for Cy Young Awards won this year was 0.5, I think I'd take the over.
Cliff Lee - Under 15.5 wins
Cliff might be my favorite Phillies starter, and he's also currently serving as the Phillies biggest left-handed power threat in the lineup. As much as I love Lee, though, I get a little concerned by how much he can waver from month-to-month. We had a blast in June last year, watching Cliff go 5-0 and give up one earned run in 42 innings. August was almost as flawless, with a 5-0 record and 2 earned runs in 39.2 innings. In between, though? His record in July was 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA. Obviously neither one of these is the norm, but this slight inconsistency that he has experienced in his career as a Philly make me think that betting on the over for him isn't the best idea. I could see him getting 20 wins, but I could also see him getting 13, especially with the offense that we don't really have this season. I say his ERA stays somewhere around the low 3.00's either way, though. And I'd take the over on 3.5 home runs.
Cole Hamels - Over 14.5 wins
Cole only had over 14.5 wins once, and that was way back in 2007. There has been no denying his improvement over the past couple of years, though, and I think that he will prove this season that he deserves one of the biggest contracts in baseball at year's end. I think that over 14.5 is a pretty easy bet here, too. I almost feel like it's too easy, and it's scary to think that the Hamels and Halladay overs can be so simple. Other people need to get wins too, right?
*Notice there is no line here for Vance Worley's wins. I'm sure you can bet on it somewhere, but not using SportsBook. I expect good things out of him this season, something I normally would not expect out of a 2nd-year pitcher. The Phillies confidence in him has given me confidence. Anyone we're unwilling to trade is probably a pretty safe bet.
Jonathan Papelbon - Over 37 saves
Have you seen our starters? Have you seen our lineup (or lack thereof)? Papelbon should get 37 saves in our first 32 games.
Hunter Pence - Under 171.5 hits
Pence is quickly becoming a Philly fan favorite, and with good reason. His attitude and energy are easy to fall in love with, and they are a perfect fit for this city. But a few things stand out to me about this line that have me taking the under. First of all, Hunter Pence averages 167 hits per season in his career. That's obviously lower, but not so much as to make this an obvious bet. He has also gotten more hits every year since he broke into the league in 2007. The problem that I have, though, is that the public perception of our lineup right now is that Hunter Pence is all we really have. Not that I don't think he can handle it, but I don't really think that that type of pressure is something that any player deals with very well. And with Ty Wigginton possibly "protecting" him in the lineup at the 5-spot, I wouldn't expect him to get any really great pitches.
The other noticeable thing about this line is the fact that it is our only offense-related line. That's because Baseball will be out at least until the middle of this month (possibly the middle of this season), and who knows what his health will be like whenever he does come back. Also, Howard is out until at least June it looks like. That leaves our batting order looking something like this:
Rollins
Polanco
Victorino
Pence
Wigginton
Mayberry
Ruiz
Galvis
Not many people are putting much faith in that lineup to get us any runs. Including GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. He recently said about our offense that "we hope we're going to be able to keep our heads above water." Is that going to make anyone feel really great about being at the plate? Not normally, no.
But it actually has me pretty excited for this season. I've done a very nice job of convincing myself that this is a good thing. No one believes our offense will do much of anything for the first half of the year, and I think that's just what they need. In the past, we've pretty much had a lineup of All-Stars and guys with huge contracts. I'm not questioning their motivation, but I am going to doubt that they are quite as motivated as the people we have playing this year. John Mayberry will get a chaynce to be an everyday player. Ty Wigginton will need to be a key part of a lineup for us to be good. Freddy Galvis is getting a chaynce at the majors that he never saw coming. These guys are playing for spots in the lineup on a day-to-day basis. They're totally about to go Cinderella Man on everyone. All we need them to do is go a few rounds with the Dancin' Baer (not a typo; but rather, a reference to Max Baer. Try to keep up with the Cinderella Man references here) until we make a big trade or get our full lineup healthy again. Our offense is playing for milk (again, Cinderella Man). So I think the James J. Braddock of our lineup (our 5-8 hitters) are the ones that step it up the most, while the 1-4 guys may struggle with the pressure of not having our biggest bats in the lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies - Over 92 wins
This line shocks me. SportsBook currently has us tied with the Detroit Tigers as favorites to win the World Series, yet they are putting us at an over/under of 92 wins? After winning 102 last season, I almost feel insulted by this. I totally understand, but it still feels a little insulting. We still have the best rotation in the majors. One would think that a team favored to win the division, league, and World Series would be getting a few more than 92 wins. I'd like to see us get somewhere more towards 95 or so. I think we can, and I think we will.
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