Before he pitches for us at all, how do I feel about this deal?
Well, not good really. We lose JA Happ, last season's runner up for Rookie of the Year. We don't know what Happ was going to do for us this season seeing as he only made 3 starts, but he was finally healthy and pitching again. So we traded a potentially good pitcher for a better pitcher that seems like more of a sure thing. But we get Oswalt for the next year and a half, possibly 2 and a half years. Happ we could have kept for who knows how long.
The other side of this is that our relationship with Happ was pretty much damaged already anyway. We have been talking about trading him for 2 years now any time a trade comes up. If I were him, I would not have felt too comfortable in Philly. It really seemed like a matter of time before he was gone, so it's good to get some value in return. Also, the consensus seems to be that the Phillies need to win right now. All of our best players are around the age of 30. In baseball, 30 is not really considered old, and many of these guys we could argue are in their primes right now. So getting a player that will help us win right now and losing a player that might help us win 5 years from now is probably a good thing. Also, the prospects we lose are not anything too critical to the system. Right now it's Anthony Gose and some random shortstop. We don't need a shortstop, and Gose is pretty whatever to me. He's one of the fastest guys in the system, but right now he doesn't look like a good leadoff guy at all with how much he strikes out. We can always use outfielders, but I don't feel like he was necessary to keep.
I think my main problem in this trade is acting like Roy Oswalt is one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. We are giving up a "proven" pitcher in JA Happ as well as one of our top prospects in Anthony Gose. This is the kind of stuff we weren't really willing to give up a year ago for Roy Halladay. Roy Oswalt is definitely good, but he's not that good. I just worry that we gave up a ton for someone who will be good but not great. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But either way, I think not winning the World Series makes this a horrible trade.
I have no comment. I could not agree with you more.
ReplyDeleteSorry to say, Cam, I disagree. No doubt Happ had an outstanding year last year (and his minor league numbers are good as well)...and he also seems like a good guy...but this was the time to sell on him. First, I'm not sure he's completely healthy and second, a lot of the stuff I read last year said that he had a runner's stranded rate that was unsustainable. In other words, he walked a lot of guys and had a lot of guys on base but was able to get out of it at a very high rate. Some it was skill but some of that is luck as well. I think Happ is a mid 4 ERA pitcher (number 4 starter) going forward...which isn't bad but isn't great. I think we'll be impressed with Oswalt...he has a career 3.24 ERA...had a down year last year but is back to career norms now. And yes, Gose was redundant with Gillies down there, and Villar is a raw 19 year old. My only concern with Oswalt would be health, but as I said, I was also concerned with Happ's health.
ReplyDeleteHere, this will make you feel better...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-roy-oswalt-deal-philadelphias-perspective/
Somehow I knew you wouldn't be happy about this
ReplyDeleteI love you all.
ReplyDeleteKev - I can respect all that. I always had kind of a bad feeling about Happ because it seems like he didn't have any really good stuff, he just didn't give up runs somehow. So all of that makes sense. I wasn't thinking about how it would be a good time to get rid of him now if he's going to be mediocre anyway. One of my predictions for this season was that he would have the highest ERA of any regular starter, and that's because I truly believed last year was somewhat of a fluke. But I do love JA Happ and would have loved to keep him around more for my own personal attachment to him through his minor league career. And I definitely have my doubts about Oswalt - health and just effectiveness in general. In his last start, basically a "showcase" kind of start, he gave up 6 in 5 innings. Hopefully he's OK with the pressure of being on this team. (very weak example, especially considering he won 2005 NLCS MVP, but I'm kind of looking for anything right now to back up why I don't like this)