Season Preview

Of the 45 baseball "experts" on ESPN.com, 27 of them have our beloved Phillies going to the World Series. It seems that everyone who has ever heard of baseball believes that the Phils are going to be matched up against the Red Sox in the 2011 World Series. As much as I would love to see the Phils back in the Fall Classic, I think we should first take a good look at how realistic that is.

I'm going to start out being extra negative. This way, we can all feel a lot better about ourselves by the time I get to the end of this. We'll go with a "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" theme on this, but it's going to happen in reverse. Although "The Ugly, the Bad, and the Good" most certainly does not have the same ring to it.

The Ugley:

Did I just spell "ugly" wrong? Or does the current status of Baseball's knee bother me that much? I'm gonna go with the latter on this one. The best news I've heard about Chase's knee is that he's starting the season on the 15-day DL, suggesting that he may only be out 15 days. The worst news I've heard is that he could miss the whole season. Will either one of those things happen? My guess is no. But I definitely think we are looking at a solid month at the very least, and maybe through the All Star break. What is so ugly about this? Besides the obvious (WE WON'T HAVE CHASE UTLEY), this puts Ryan Howard in a terrible situation, and, thus, our entire lineup really. Howard has had the luxury his entire career of having Utley get on base in front of him and having Jayson Werth or Pat Burrell protect him from the 5th spot. This year, he'll have 74-year-old Raul Ibanez hitting behind him. Without the threat of Utley or Werth, Howard will be stranded on an island in the middle of our batting order. Can he produce like he has in the past? Doubtful. Will his on-base percentage be at an all-time high? I would think. If I'm playing the Phillies, I never give him a pitch to hit. Expect to see the Big Man walking to first A LOT this season.

The Bad:

The bullpen. What was definitely our biggest need going into the offseason got completely ignored (well, not completely, if you consider the fact that our top 4 starters will pitch 7-9 innings every outing). Madson, Contreras, and Lidge were great last season, but Lidge is hurt (aka Lidge is on the Phillies), and we don't know how long that injury or its effects will last. In the meantime, no one else knows how to close. Yikes

Anything on our team starting with "right." Right-handed hitters are a thing of the past in Philadelphia, and our rightfielder is still a mystery (mostly because I don't want to admit that Ben Francisco is an everyday player in the major leagues). We do not have a single right-handed bat in our lineup that could be considered even somewhat of a power threat. And with Domonic Brown out with a broken hand to start the season, we lose that potential power in favor of Joe Camel. I am hoping that John Mayberry gets some nice playing time at the beginning of the year, if for no other reason than to simply see if his father can be properly identified in the stands. And not just call any random person his dad just because said guy was black and happy after John's first career home run. (Fox sucks. And so does Joe Buck)

The Good:

Cole Hamels is our 4th starter.

Let's recap that last statement.

Cole Hamels (yes, Cole Hamels) is our 4th (as in not the best, 2nd best, or 3rd best) starter. What does this mean? We have 3 pitchers who are better than Cole Hamels. (than Cole Hamels!) The Braves' 4th starter is Jrrr Jrrrjrrjrrrs (or however you spell/pronounce his name). Not bad, but not Cole Hamels. The Yankees' is Freddy Garcia. Not bad, but still not Cole Hamels. Cole legitimately should have won the 2008 Cy Young had he been given any run support. And he is our 4th starter.

With all of that being said, here is my impression on the upcoming season. We don't get the 96.5 wins that Vegas is putting us at, mostly because we don't have much of an offense. That sounds crazy, but it's pretty true if you look at the last few seasons. We should win any game in which we score 4 runs, but I truly worry about us scoring 4 runs this season. We should win the NL East, but the Braves are definitely going to be tough. We should win the NL this season, but it's going to come down to our hitting in October, something we couldn't do last season. With what some people believe is our best team of the past 5 seasons, I somehow feel the least confident with this group. Pitching will get us very far, but I know that the bats will need to be alive in order for us to be truly successful.

So here are 7 predictions for the season. Why 7? Because I feel like it. That's why.

1. Joe Blanton will get 15 wins this season. At least to start the season, he should be facing the worst pitcher on the other team. And don't you kind of get the feeling that he'll be the only one that the bats decide to hit for?


2. Roy Oswalt will have the lowest ERA on the team. Just because I feel like no one is talking about him. Halladay won the Cy Young, everyone loves Cliff, and Cole is a lifetime Phillie.


3. Michael Martinez will become our everyday 2nd baseman. Until Chase is back, I feel like this guy that no one has ever heard of could randomly start turning some heads. I love Rule V guys, and he's just that. And I think names like Michael Martinez are hilarious. He's from the Dominican Republic. Why not name your kid Miguel?


4. Rollins will hit .300. He's never done it before, and this feels like a year where someone will need to step up big on offense in the absence of Chase and Werth. Jimmy should feel like that's on him.


5. John Mayberry will hit 15 home runs. Mostly because I wanted him to last year.


6. Ryan Howard will win a Gold Glove. If for no other reason, because I'll look like a freakin' genius if this happens.


7. The Phillies will beat the White Sox in a 7-game World Series. I don't want to pick the Red Sox, so why not pick their arch nemesis to get there instead. And although I am skeptical about our offense, I can't honestly pick against us.

Third Time's a Charm

I know what you're all thinking right now

"Really? You're trying this again? Have you learned nothing over the past 2 years? You couldn't keep a blog going for the entire season if your life depended on it! You can barely go half the season! You truly suck at this. Why even try? What is your deal? Get a job dude!"

Well, first of all, that's a little harsh. So back off. And I have a job, so why even make a comment like that?

Beyond those things, I can see your point. I think that I have a legitimate shot at it this season, though. Just hear me out on this one.

In the past, I've had too high of expectations for myself. "Come on, Cameron (cause I don't call myself 'Cam'...that's weird) you can totally do this. All it takes is typing up your thoughts after every game or 2. You probably wouldn't shut up about this stuff anyway, so you might as well type it." Well this year I've learned that I need a real plan. So here it is. (And yes, I am totally making this stuff up on the spot. So yes, it may completely backfire and not work at all)

• I am going to write a preview for each series that we have as well as a recap of each series that we have. Unless there is something I really need to say, there is no need to try to blog for almost every game.


• I will use off-days to blog about broader topics, not just individual games. It was always tough to fit in those generic posts in the past while also trying to comment on games.


• I will encourage more participation from my readers to give me things to say. Only this year, I hope you'd be willing to email me as well as comment on the posts. I know some of you may get too nervous to have your comment seen by all, and I think it's adorable how shy you are. But don't worry, just email me at cskoehler5@gmail.com, and no one will have to know about it. You can comment on the Phils or an opponent, ask me questions that you would want answered in the blog or otherwise, give me suggestions for the blog, etc. The possibilities are endless! The more you talk to me, the better chance there is I actually keep this thing going. I'll be sure to keep reminding you.


• I have recently been reading the greatest blog known to man, and it has given me so many ideas for how I can make this one more interesting. Like no matter how many times you guys all email me, I will do some type of "mailbag" post about once a month answering your questions (or ones I make up that you "asked"). And I can have more links to things that are hilarious and/or awesome. Although this doesn't necessarily make my blogging easier, it definitely makes it more interesting for you. And it's really all about you, isn't it?


• I will again encourage guest blog entries. We had 2 last season, and I hope that more people will be excited to do it again this season. (I realize this could fall under the 3rd bullet point, but the more bullets the better... Well, not always.


• I'm not working at Summer Study this year! So although I loved it and will miss going back, it will allow me to fully focus on the Phils for the full season. (alliteration is awesome)

These are just a few of my ideas and plans. Hopefully you can stick with me for a 3rd attempt at this. I know that the past few years I've left you a little disappointed, even borderline depressed, but I promise to try my very best to make this year better.

I'm going to try to have a season preview up before the game on Friday. Let's go Phils!