California

Yesterday, I arrived in sunny California to be here for the next week.  This means, I probably won't have a real update more than maybe once.

Interleague play starting.  Nice win against the Red Sox last night.  Interleague play, though, is really not important.  We struggle every season in interleague play, and so does every other NL team.  Because of this, we don't need to do that well because we can keep up either way.  Plus we're in first and awesome against the NL.

A Tale of Two Cities

*This post has been written by one of my best friends and, in my opinion, the only real Pirates fan in this world. Ben Follett (affectionately known as "B Fresh" by yours truly) is a baseball purist and a fantastic human being. I asked him to write this post to shake things up a bit and get a feel for these 2 games from the perspective of a Pittsburgh fan. This is the first of what I hope will be several guest blog entries this season. If interested in writing one, please let me know. So, shut up Cameron, and here it is:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

- Charles Dickens

When Charles Dickens wrote that famous line to begin his 1859 novel, I don’t believe that he could have guessed that it would ring so true for two cities in Pennsylvania, 151 years later. The Pirates and the Phillies are worlds apart as far as baseball teams go, and that was never more apparent than in the recent two game series that took place in the city of Brotherly Love.

The series was the first of 6 games between the PA Turnpike rivals with the next four coming over July 4th weekend in Pittsburgh. (A little sidebar: I know you, “the readers” whom I would surmise are mostly Phillies fans would say something like this, “What the crap, we have to play four games in Pittsburgh, over 4th of July, when they play only two in Philly! Outrage!” Well let me tell you, last night was your team’s 60th consecutive sellout, we sold out one game at the beginning of the season. We need it more. Deal with it.) So without further ado, a recap of games 1 and 2.

Game 1:

The Pirates get smoked, 12-2 while getting dominated by Kyle Kendrick (the Phillies worst starter in my opinion) and the long ball (Werth, Howard). But this game really boils down to two distinct points in the game.

Point #1: First, bottom of the first inning, Pirates up 1-0. The following sequence is the exact reason the Phillies are the best in the National League. Victorino singled on an 0-2 pitch low and away that he merely slapped between short and third. Next, after four pick off moves and a chorus of boos from the Philly faithful, Victorino steals second. Then Polanco hits a ball to the right side to move Victorino to third and Jimmy Rollins in his triumphant return does the same thing to score the run. 1-1. Teams that play small ball to score runs, even when they don’t need to, win baseball games. End of story.

Point #2: In the third, Morton loads the bases with one out and Rollins coming to the plate. He busts him inside and gets him to pop out. Next, with Ryan Howard up and the shift on (which I hate), Howard hits a two strike pitch right at where the shortstop would normally be scoring two run. Werth comes up and hits a home run and the score is 5-1 and might as well be 25-1. Game over.

Game 2: (AKA “fill-in-the-blank Pirates pitcher vs. Roy Halladay” Game)

I made a bet with a guy I work with that the Pirates will win more than 70 games this season. The bet is for a case of beer. I like beer and I also really think the Pirates can win 70 games. Game 2 was not one of those games. But alas, this is the Pirates. Nothing is as it seems. Halladay dominated for most of the game but found himself in the middle of the only thing the Pirates do better than the Phillies, close games. The Pirates are now 12-4 in games decided by 2 runs or less, and the Phillies are now 8-8. This game was about the Phillies not hitting as much as anything else. I would like to attribute that to good pitching by Zach Duke, but I know better (Actually, I’ll give him some credit, good game Zach). In the end the Pirates win, Raise the Jolly Roger, no one ever has success when it is their bobblehead night, and the series is a split. What was painfully obvious during this series is that the Phillies are really good, even when they lose, and the Pirates are bad, even when they win.

Although this series was full of “Expect the Unexpected” like Cameron wrote in his preview, I have learned that the Pirates are exactly what I expect. As naïve as I can be at times because I love baseball and want them to be good; they aren’t good, they won’t win Championships and therefore aren’t the Phillies. For once in my life, I actually wish Pittsburgh was more like Philadelphia, somebody shoot me.

...

So that was kind of expected. To the point where my mom called the grand slam

Expecting the Unexpected

Although I cannot claim to be a real Flyers fan, anyone from the Philly area has to be loving the NHL Eastern Conference Playoffs right now.  After getting in the playoffs on the last day of the season, facing the 2-seed in the first round, being down 3-0 in the second round, and losing their goalie, the Flyers now have home ice advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals and won Game 1 6-0 last night.  I doubt anyone outside of my good friend Bean could have predicted a series of events for the Fly Guys anything like what has gone down in the past few weeks.

Along the same lines, the baseball season thus far has been nowhere close to what most of the "experts" would have expected.  Here's a quick look at some things that just shouldn't be happening:

AL East - The Red Sox are in 4th place.  The Yankees, commonly picked to win the World Series again, are in 2nd behind the Rays.  The Rays are not necessarily a surprise, but the 3rd place Halladay-less Blue Jays certainly are

AL Central - No surprise to me the Twins are in first.  To my credit, though, I'm awesome.  The Royals winning 14 games with only 1 of those coming from Cy Young winner Zack Greinke is definitely unexpected

AL West - The Mariners were looking mighty good with two aces and the addition of Chone Figgins, but they have one of the worst records in baseball.  The Angels, who were the other favorite to win the division, are also under .500.

NL East - The Nationals.  Holy crap the Nationals.

NL Central - The largely favored Cardinals are in 2nd place behind the surprising Reds and just ahead of the Pirates.  Yes, the Pirates are in 3rd

NL West - The Padres are in 1st place after back-to-back losing season and with no sign of a real offense aside from Adrian Gonzalez

So, although the season is still relatively young, many things are happening around the league that have people confused.  It's tough for a team to be a fluke for an entire 162-game season, so things will even out eventually.  

In the meantime, the Pirates are in 3rd place and coming to Philadelphia.  It's tough to claim the Pirates have been successful this season with a 16-21 record, but it's tough to tell both Pittsburgh baseball fans that the Pirates have been unsuccessful considering the horrendous failures for the past 17 seasons.  Third place is a big deal.

Win or lose, the season has been exciting to watch for Pirates fans.  They are 11-4 in games decided by 2 runs or less.  That means that they get to see other teams score a lot of runs in games they lose.  That's exciting, right?

This is good and bad news for the Phillies.  We know that we can score a lot of runs.  We also know the pain of losing close games all too often.  I have a feeling that this 2-game series will see more success, though.

Game 1: Charlie Morton vs. Kyle Kendrick

Charlie Morton sounds like a baseball player's name.  That seems to be all he has going for him this season.  He has a quality start in each of his last 3 games, and his ERA is still over 9.  That means that he has an ERA of 4.50 at the very most in his last 3 games, yet in 7 games this season, he has an ERA of 9.19.  I normally do a stupid amount of math and calculations in this blog, but I'm just going to say that he completely sucked for 4 games before becoming decent.  This game could end up being something like 12-6 in favor Phillies with the Pirates random offensive success showing up while Kendrick pitches.  Kendrick could also end up pitching a shutout.  We'll see which Kyle shows up for this game.

Game 2: fill-in-the-blank Pirates pitcher vs. Roy Halladay

I would say sorry, but I hate Pittsburgh.

This series should be a 2-game sweep for the Phils, relying on offense in one game and pitching in the next.  But with the way this baseball season has been thus far, we can't really know what to expect.

Brewers Preview

The series starting tonight against the Brewers is not exactly our most exciting series of the season. Our starters will be Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick. The Brewers lucked out by missing Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay. The Phillies lucked out, though, by missing Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo. So what can we expect from this series? Probably a lot of runs.

Randy Wolf and Jamie Moyer will be a good matchup in the first game. Wolf always has an odd, underrated amount of success. Jamie Moyer seems to be the same way. In the 3 seasons prior to this one, only 9 pitchers in baseball won more games than Jamie did. Who are they? Check out this list: CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren, Ted Lilly, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, and Andy Pettitte.

The Brewers are simply not a very good team overall, but they have been very streaky this season. Their last 19 games: lost 8 out of 10 to the Cubs, Pirates, and Padres; won 5 out of 6 against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks; lost all 3 to the Braves.
Because of this, it's hard to know what to expect from the Brewers. Their offense this season consists mainly of Ryan Braun and Casey McGehee, who are their only regular starters batting anywhere close to .300 (although both are well above) and have accounted for 1/3 of the teams home runs. A team that includes a struggling Prince Fielder (.254, 4 HR, 15 RBI). Maybe he should have stuck with pitching - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcvaYgWc9eY
(Yes, that is Prince Fielder)

So, overall, it is tough to say what to expect from this series. We should expect to sweep them, but I cannot say I would be shocked if it were the other way around. It would be bad, but not necessarily shocking.

At This Rate

Following last night's win over the Rockies, we have now played 32 games, which is roughly 1/5 of our season. If the other 80% of the season follows the current pace the Phillies are on, here are some things that we can expect:

-The Phillies will finish with 100 wins, winning the NL East by 10 games over the Nationals. Yes, the Nationals, who will also finish 2nd for the NL Wild Card.

-Roy Halladay will earn a decision in each of his 35 starts this season, going 30-5. This will include 15 complete games, 10 of them shutouts.

-Speaking of 30-5, Jimmy Rollins will only play in 35 games this season. On the bright side, we will win 30 of those, and Jimmy will finish with a .391 batting average and .516 on-base percentage.

-The NL record for most GIDPs (ground into double play) in a season is 30 by Brad Ausmus in 2002. He did so in 447 at-bats. Impressively, Wilson Valdez will do this 20 times in just 170 at bats. Meaning he could reach Ausmus' mark if he manages to get 255 at-bats.

-Antonio Bastardo will compile a 1.69 ERA in 35 appearances this season. Sometime between those appearances, he will be sent to the minors 15 times.

-Jose Contreras will give up 5 walk-off home runs this season. On the bright side, those will be the only 5 earned runs he allows.

-Jayson Werth will hit 85 doubles this season, shattering the previous record of 67, and most likely helping to earn him an MVP award.

-The Phillies will have 3 players with over 100 RBI this season: Werth - 130; Victorino - 125; Howard - 105

-Ryan Howard will have career lows (for a full season) in home runs (25), RBI (105), and strikeouts (170). He will have a career-high 5 triples, though.

-Chase Utley will have a career-high 40 home runs (half of them against the Nationals), yet a career-low 90 RBI.

-Jamie Moyer will win 20 games and throw 5 shutouts, giving him 278 career wins and most likely causing him to pitch at least two more seasons to reach 300.

-Chad Durbin's mother will do a better job in the broadcast booth than Thomas McCarthy and Christopher Wheeler ever could. Five times.

-The Phillies will have 4 players hit .300 or better, after having 0 in the last 2 seasons combined.

-Only 4 players in history have had a quadruple-20 season (20 doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases). They are: Frank Schulte (1911), Willie Mays (1957), Jimmy Rollins (2007), and Curtis Granderson (2007). Shane Victorino will add his name to that list with 20 doubles, 20 triples, 35 home runs, and 20 stolen bases.

-Cole Hamels will match his career high in wins with 15 despite only pitching 10 quality starts and having an 0-5 record in those starts.

-Ryan Madson will give up 35 earned runs in 45 innings. By comparison, Halladay will give up 45 earned runs in 280 innings.

-Carlos Ruiz will finish with a batting average (.354) 100 points higher than his current career average. He will also have a career high in hits (145), runs (60), home runs (10), RBI (55), and walks (105)

-The Phillies will finish with 3 players in the top 6 in the NL in on-base percentage (Utley, Werth, Ruiz)

-Brad Lidge will return to his 2008 form and be perfect in save opportunities. Unfortunately, he'll only have 5 of them.

As for the rest of the league, Andre Ethier of the Dodgers will end up winning the NL Triple Crown. This most likely proves that these predictions are complete crap, so everyone will have to pay attention to the other 130 games to see how things play out.

Witnessing History

I was lucky enough to get to go to the Phillies game last night. A $17 standing room ticket was more than worth what I got to see. Jamie Moyer became the oldest pitcher in Major League history to throw a complete game shutout.

I knew something special was happening as the game went. From the first pitch of every game, I am always thinking about a no-hitter or perfect game. Once Moyer gave up a leadoff single in the second, I could put those thoughts to rest. He then got a double play and the third out with no problem. Until the 8th inning, he did not allow another baserunner. Seventeen straight batters came to the plate and all 17 went back to the dugout without success. It was something I wanted to tell everyone around me, but I didn't want to jinx the amazing performance.

I was actually at the game with a Braves fan, and I told him at the beginning of the game when Moyer was looking good that he could at least count on 2 or 3 innings from our bullpen because Moyer would probably never throw another complete game in his life. Hearing Moyer announced as the leadoff batter in the 9th inning was one of the more exciting things I have ever heard at a Phillies game. And by the end, my Braves friend (oxymoron, I know) was rooting for Jamie Moyer.

Last season, I was at the stadium for a JA Happ complete game shutout. In 2008, I saw Brett Myers do it. I consider myself extremely lucky to have even seen one of these. However, none were anywhere near as exciting as this one. Jamie Moyer is often idolized and often criticized in Philadelphia, and so seeing him, at the age of 47, put together such an incredible pitching performance was truly special.

This will officially go down as the 2nd best Phillies game I've ever been to (behind the World Series clincher).

As for the remaining 2 games in this series, things are looking up for the Phillies. The Braves are nowhere near what anyone would have expected preseason, and the Phillies have absolutely dominated them in 4 games this season. Our only loss was on a game blown by the bullpen when Kyle Kendrick pitched 8 scoreless innings. Our starters have yet to give up an earned run against the Braves in those 4 games, including 2 complete game shutouts. Our pitching staff as a whole has a 1.25 ERA in those games with the Braves hitting somewhere around .176 against us. Compare that to the 5 runs we're scoring per game against them and our position players' .303 batting average, and you have quite a lopsided matchup between these two teams. I would expect nothing less than a sweep of this sad, sad team.

RIP Robin Roberts

It's just been reported that former Phillies pitcher Robin Roberts died today of natural causes at the age of 83.

Roberts made a huge impact on the Phillies in his time in Philadelphia from 1948 to 1961. He was a part of the 1950 "Whiz Kids" team that won the NL pennant. Roberts started 3 games in the last 5 days of that season to help them secure the pennant.

Two seasons ago, the Phillies honored Roberts at one game that I was lucky enough to attend. His career numbers are incredible, but he also just seemed to be a great guy. He gave a speech before the game which basically consisted of him telling old baseball stories. My favorite story that he told was something along these lines:

Late in his career with the Phillies, Roberts gave up a home run to left field in a game they were losing. The shortstop, whoever it was at the time, started walking toward the mound and looked angry. Robin yelled to him as he got halfway to the mound, "Get your ass back to shortstop and jump higher next time!"

Predictions Revisited

Tonight's game was a tough one. Joe Blanton was solid, but that Garcia character is apparently for real.

The real story in this game, though, is the Phillies' 11th loss of the season. Although I did not put this in my 10 semi-possibly-bold predictions for the season, I did say, off the record, that I thought the Phillies would go 152-10 this season. Brace yourself, Koehler fans. I am, after all, slightly human.

This brings us to a good time to look back at those 10 semi-possibly-bold predictions. The season is about a month old, so let's check out my progress.

1. Roy Halladay will win 22 games along with the NL Cy Young Award
Halladay is currently on pace for 34 wins according to ESPN.com. That gives me some breathing room on the 22. He's thrown 2 shutouts, he's first in the NL in wins, 5th in strikeouts, and 5th in ERA with a 1.47. I'll say that prediction looks good right now

2. The Phillies will win 100 games (in the regular season)
They are looking at around 90 or 91 with their current pace, but I think that Jimmy Rollins being out is a big part of the lack of wins thus far. We were 5-1 with him and he was looking really good. Expect this number to spike again once he returns (whenever that may be)

3. Ryan Howard will hit over .290 and win MVP
The Big Man is at .280 right now and is losing the MVP race to Jayson Werth and Chase Utley at least. The batting average is looking possible. The other numbers usually show up when we return from the All-Star Break.

4. Jamie Moyer will become a great-grandfather
Jamie has 8 children, but apparently is not even a grandfather yet. Boy did I drop the ball on this one!

5. Raul Ibanez will miss significant time with some type of injury, and John Mayberry will end up hitting 15 home runs this season serving as his replacement
Still praying...

6. Shane Victorino will lead our team in batting average for the 3rd consecutive season
I meant RBIs. And the first

7. I will have a brain aneurysm listening to the Phillies broadcast team
I'm still going strong! The one positive of my inability to watch every game this season

8. JA Happ will end up having the highest ERA of our regular starting pitchers after having the lowest last season
In 2 starts, his ERA is 0.00. So let's hope he keeps that up with me still making an accurate prediction

9. A Phillies pitcher will throw a no-hitter this season. And it won't be Roy Halladay
Why did I try to make these predictions semi-possibly-bold? I couldn't have just stopped after saying there'd be a no-hitter? Thus far, Halladay would obviously look like the top candidate to do that. But no-hitters are usually pretty random so I've got a shot at this one.

10. The Phillies will win the NL East for the 4th straight time, the NL for the 3rd straight time, and the World Series for the 2nd time in 3 years. They'll beat the Minnesota Twins in 6 games.
We are in first in the NL East, but have struggled against the Cardinals (although in just 1 game) and Giants, 2 of the 3 NL teams with a better record than us. My AL pick looks better just about every day. The Twins are leading the AL Central and are 1.5 games behind the Rays for the best record in the AL. I still like the Twins to be our victims.

Cardinals Preview

I am sure a lot of the focus of this upcoming series will be Ryan Howard vs. Albert Pujols. Any other season, this would be a nice topic of conversation for any Cardinals-Phillies series, but Howard's recent contract gives analysts around the country something more to talk about.

Does he deserve this kind of money?
What kind of money will that make Pujols get?
Is he the second best player in baseball, as his contract might suggest?

If recent history is any indication, the next 4 games could answer these questions in favor of the Big Man. Howard has always enjoyed success against his hometown Cardinals, and Pujols has surprisingly struggled against Phillies pitchers. A quick look at their numbers over the past 3 seasons:

Howard
85 AB / .412 AVG / 6 2B / 11 HR / 33 RBI / 1.399 OPS
Pujols
67 AB / .239 AVG / 2 2B / 5 HR / 12 RBI / .839 OPS

So if we can expect one thing out of this series, it would be that talk of Howard's contract will annoy us even more than it already has. If we can expect two things, though, it would be that Howard will exceed any contractual expectations.

As for actual matchups, it is hard to say that they really favor the Phils. To our credit, though, it would be hard to say that any team would have a favorable matchup against Cardinals starting pitching.

Monday:
Joe Blanton vs. Jaime Garcia - Blanton is making his season debut after an injury kept him out this long. We can't really know what to expect from him right now. If it's anything like what we've gotten from him in the past, I would say 8 innings and 4 runs. That's definitely something I can live with considering our offense in the past 2 games. Jaime Garcia, however, is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA this season. That may suggest that 10 or 11 runs will not happen for us. Overall, this game is kind of a coin flip I would say depending upon how well Blanton does and whether or not Garcia can continue his random new-found success.

Tuesday:
Cole Hamels vs. Adam Wainwright - Because this is a big matchup, Hamels will most likely step up his game. Against Wainwright, however, it will be tough for the Phils to provide enough run support for him. Wainwright is 4-1 this season with a 2.13 ERA. His one loss came in a game in which he pitched 8 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. The problem for him was, in that same game, Barry Zito pitched 8 innings of shutout ball while striking out 10 for the Giants. I think this will be a great game for pitching, but don't expect much out of either offense. If it comes down to bullpens in the end, I give the advantage to the Cardinals.

Wednesday (ESPN):
Kyle Kendrick vs. Brad Penny - This game is as much of a guaranteed loss as we can get. We all know at this point about Kendrick's struggles. Brad Penny is 3-1 this season with a 1.56 ERA. Are we noticing a trend with this Cardinals starting rotation? Luckily, we miss out on their ace Chris Carpenter, who is better than each of these first 3 pitchers. Pretty impressive.

Thursday (1:05 game):
Roy Halladay vs. Kyle Lohse - First of all, Lohse pronounces his last name "lowshe." Where does he get off? You're either spelling your name wrong or pronouncing it wrong. Plus, you're bringing down the entire starting rotation of the St. Louis Cardinals. Lohse has yet to win a game and has an ERA over 5. Against Roy Halladay, I like the Phillies' odds in this game. A lot.

One final note in this series. We may get to see my favorite matchup in history: Brad Lidge vs. Albert Pujols. Someone seems to bring up every time these two see each other arguably the most entertaining home run in baseball history. Hopefully we'll be lucky enough to see a clip of it during the series, but if not, I'll put the link below. Basically, Pujols hit a home run off of Brad Lidge that left Houston's city limits to send the Cardinals to the World Series. Yikes. Hilarious

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w_id=455632&w=2005/open/topplays/archive10/05nlcs_gm5_slnhou_pujols_3runhr_350.wmv&pid=mlb_tp&gid=2005/10/17/slnmlb-houmlb-1&curl=custom_context/ps/y2005/lcs_b.jsp&cid=mlb&fid=mlb_tp350&v=2

Black and White*

Friday night's game and Saturday afternoon's game go a long way to tell us absolutely nothing about the Phillies this season. Just over 17 hours after a disgusting showing at the plate and on the mound on Friday, the Phils were able to score 10 runs against a pitcher with the best ERA in the NL at 0.69 while also shutting out a team that had just won 8 straight games. In defense of that, the team was the Mets, so you can't expect much.

This problem of inconsistency may or may not be something that every team in baseball experiences, but I only ever deal with the Phillies, so it's extra annoying thinking it is specific to them. Halladay turned in another fantastic performance yesterday, and he seems to be the only thing we can truly count on, if for nothing other than giving our bullpen a break (and probably a win).

We play tonight on ESPN, so we get a second day in a row with a break from our favorite broadcast team. It's nice to hear Joe Buck every once in a while (let me finish) just so we can have some appreciation for the Phillies broadcast team. While watching the game tonight, listen to how hilariously Jon Miller pronounces Spanish last names. (i.e. Carlos bel-TRAHN)

What to expect from the game tonight?
Moyer pitches 1 1/3 and gives up 8 runs while Santana pitches a complete game shutout
OR
Moyer pitches 7 innings of 3 hit-ball and the game ends with the Phillies winning 1-0 in 15 innings
OR
Santana gives up 3 home runs in the first 2 innings and is out of the game by the 5th while the Phillies pitching staff manages to give up just 1 less run than the Mets
OR
No one has any clue because it's the Mets and Phillies

I'd put money on the last one

*For the record, the title of this post is not implying whether black or white is good or bad. They are just opposites. I swear I'm not racist